RADIO
As the NFL Draft hits us this week, we will give you two final mocks intended to offer an idea of true player values independent of where these rookies are drafted on Thursday. By offering this view before the Draft, you can put into context where these rookies stand amongst their NFL peers and get an idea of what to expect from them in various situations.
To add depth to this one-man mock, we will also apply several wild card personalities to some of the teams in this draft. The hope is that, by instituting the following personalities along with your typical anonymous squads named “Analyst 1” and so on, you will get an idea of how a real mock may go. Analysts in this mock will have more boring and straightforward picks like the ones you read about every week. At the same time, the following personalities will make the occasional reach or unique strategy when they come on the clock….
- The Mavericks - This team is a risk-taker. They do not shy away from injured players, streaky players, and boom-or-bust types.
- Zero RB 4 Life - This team employs the zero running back theory.
- Half-Back 2 Da Future - This team goes running back heavy early, a smart strategy.
- The Basic B's - This team prints off an analyst's draft rankings and drafts from that almost exclusively. They are highly attracted to established big names and veterans.
- Jack Reacher - Reacher will get his guy, often a round or two higher than expected.
- The Trend Setters - This team will start runs at positions like QB and TE. They will value securing the best player(s) at a position, whether those positions are deep or not.
We will attempt this in a standard Non-Superflex format, with both a Re-Draft version and a Dynasty version (this one) coming out this week.
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Round 1: Dynasty Leagues Mock Draft
| Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
| 1 | 1 | Analyst 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | WR |
| 1 | 2 | Mavericks | Jonathan Taylor | Colts | RB |
| 1 | 3 | Analyst 2 | Justin Jefferson | Vikings | WR |
| 1 | 4 | Zero RB 4 Life | A.J. Brown | Titans | WR |
| 1 | 5 | Analyst 3 | Najee Harris | Steelers | RB |
| 1 | 6 | Half-Back 2 Da Future | Christian McCaffrey | Panthers | RB |
| 1 | 7 | The Basic B's | Cooper Kupp | Rams | WR |
| 1 | 8 | Analyst 4 | D’Andre Swift | Lions | RB |
| 1 | 9 | Jack Reacher | Joe Mixon | Bengals | RB |
| 1 | 10 | The Trend Setters | Kyle Pitts | Falcons | TE |
| 1 | 11 | Analyst 5 | Austin Ekeler | Chargers | RB |
| 1 | 12 | Analyst 6 | CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | WR |
You see how our dynasty mock differs from our re-draft format right off the bat. In re-drafts, players like Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook will regularly go ahead of players like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, but in dynasty, those receivers are arguably the most valuable assets in the entire game. The LSU products are still incredibly young. Their talent and opportunity shares are elite. Plus, they sit atop a WR position that trades and trade demands have damaged (see Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Deebo Samuel). Simply put, few running backs in history have dominated their position as Chase and Jefferson could. This RB pool's lack of health/youth/opportunity pushes their value even higher.
Also, don't be surprised if a name like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker sneaks into the first round of some dynasty drafts. That will happen if either is drafted into a clear workhorse role, and it will likely occur even if they don’t. Remember that the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor snuck into the first round of many dynasty startups just two years ago, and the lack of young depth at RB could force the issue again this year. For us, none of the rookies in this NFL Draft class is worthy of even a second-round dynasty pick, but that could change if Hall or Walker were drafted into a workhorse role with a team like the Falcons, Texans, or Bills.
Additionally, there should be more debate about Cooper Kupp’s place in dynasty than there currently is. In dynasty startups, Kupp is typically a first-round pick, yet his trade value in established dynasties appears to be less than that. It’s a dichotomy that leads many to question the true value of this elite WR heading into his age-29 season. Of course, a team like Basic Bs would value what they just saw in Kupp’s breakout season and cross their fingers that he ages like a souped-up version of Julian Edelman.
Finally, don’t be surprised if Kyle Pitts’ upside at the TE position gets him into your dynasty first-round. You should know if you are drafting with someone who prioritizes “winning positions,” meaning they value getting the best player at a given position regardless of their true value. If someone like that is playing in your league, expect them to target Pitts and Josh Allen very early in dynasty.
Rounds 2-3: Dynasty Leagues Mock Draft
| Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
| 2 | 13 | Analyst 6 | Dalvin Cook | Vikings | RB |
| 2 | 14 | Analyst 5 | Alvin Kamara | Saints | RB |
| 2 | 15 | The Trend Setters | Javonte Williams | Broncos | RB |
| 2 | 16 | Jack Reacher | Mark Andrews | Ravens | TE |
| 2 | 17 | Analyst 4 | Breece Hall | TBD | RB |
| 2 | 18 | Basic B’s | Davante Adams | Raiders | WR |
| 2 | 19 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Derrick Henry | Titans | RB |
| 2 | 20 | Analyst 3 | Antonio Gibson | Commanders | RB |
| 2 | 21 | Zero RB 4 Life | Stefon Diggs | Bills | WR |
| 2 | 22 | Analyst 2 | Tyreek Hill | Dolphins | WR |
| 2 | 23 | Mavericks | Josh Allen | Bills | QB |
| 2 | 24 | Analyst 1 | Kenneth Walker III | TBD | RB |
| 3 | 25 | Analyst 1 | D.K. Metcalf | Seahawks | WR |
| 3 | 26 | Mavericks | Tee Higgins | Bengals | WR |
| 3 | 27 | Analyst 2 | Nick Chubb | Browns | RB |
| 3 | 28 | Zero RB 4 Life | Deebo Samuel | 49ers/TBD | WR |
| 3 | 29 | Analyst 3 | Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | WR |
| 3 | 30 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Cam Akers | Rams | RB |
| 3 | 31 | Basic B’s | Saquon Barkley | Giants | RB |
| 3 | 32 | Analyst 4 | Travis Kelce | Chiefs | TE |
| 3 | 33 | Jack Reacher | Terry McLaurin | Commanders | WR |
| 3 | 34 | The Trend Setters | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB |
| 3 | 35 | Analyst 5 | D.J. Moore | Panthers | WR |
| 3 | 36 | Analyst 6 | Mike Evans | Buccaneers | WR |
If you are new to dynasty, you must realize that there are managers out there who abuse this system. By that, we mean many people will join dynasty leagues with the intention of going all-in on Year 1, trading away all their future picks for current ones, and abandoning the league once their live-and-let-die strategy catches up to them. Suppose you play with managers like that or simply with people who want to win immediately. In that case, you should expect them to target Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry despite concerns about their longevity. Win-now managers won't care if Cook and Henry can help them in 2024 or 2025. Those managers will see a chance to get RB1 options that can help them win in 2022 on the cheap.
Another note worth making about this range is the rise of Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker. While we don’t know the NFL landing spots for these two, it feels safe to say that dynasty managers will be attracted to their age and position. As the top two rookies at a thin RB spot, expect many managers to target a WR with their first pick in startups with a plan to get Hall or Walker in the second round. These young backs will likely go amongst the first 30 picks in dynasty regardless of where they are drafted, but people could reach for them in the first 15 selections if either land in a true workhorse role.
Finally, the stock of some dynasty favorites (Javonte Williams, Deebo Samuel, and A.J. Brown) has dipped after various bad news reports this past week. Williams' stock took a hit when reports came out (at the time of this writing) that Melvin Gordon would be returning to Denver, which hurts Williams' upside for at least another season. Meanwhile, Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network reports that Deebo Samuel is expected to be traded to the Jets, hurting his stock. Last but not least, there are rumors A.J. Brown could hold out through camp for a new deal, which typically doesn't spell a stellar statistical start to a player's season. Each of these players still has immense dynasty and re-draft value, but their stock is lower than a month ago.
Rounds 4-5: Dynasty Leagues Mock Draft
| Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
| 4 | 37 | Analyst 6 | Diontae Johnson | Steelers | WR |
| 4 | 38 | Analyst 5 | Chris Godwin | Buccaneers | WR |
| 4 | 39 | The Trend Setters | J.K. Dobbins | Ravens | RB |
| 4 | 40 | Jack Reacher | Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | WR |
| 4 | 41 | Analyst 4 | DeAndre Hopkins | Cardinals | WR |
| 4 | 42 | Basic B’s | Josh Jacobs | Raiders | RB |
| 4 | 43 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Jerry Jeudy | Broncos | WR |
| 4 | 44 | Analyst 3 | Amari Cooper | Browns | WR |
| 4 | 45 | Zero RB 4 Life | George Kittle | 49ers | TE |
| 4 | 46 | Analyst 2 | David Montgomery | Bears | RB |
| 4 | 47 | Mavericks | Jameson Williams | TBD | WR |
| 4 | 48 | Analyst 1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | Jaguars | RB |
| 4 | 49 | Analyst 1 | DeVonta Smith | Eagles | WR |
| 5 | 50 | Mavericks | Isaiah Spiller | TBD | RB |
| 5 | 51 | Analyst 2 | Keenan Allen | Chargers | WR |
| 5 | 52 | Zero RB 4 Life | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB |
| 5 | 53 | Analyst 3 | Courtland Sutton | Broncos | WR |
| 5 | 54 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Drake London | TBD | WR |
| 5 | 55 | Basic B’s | Aaron Jones | Packers | RB |
| 5 | 56 | Analyst 4 | Michael Thomas | Saints | WR |
| 5 | 57 | Jack Reacher | Justin Herbert | Chargers | QB |
| 5 | 58 | The Trend Setters | Garrett Wilson | TBD | WR |
| 5 | 59 | Analyst 5 | Elijah Moore | Jets | WR |
| 5 | 60 | Analyst 6 | Leonard Fournette | Buccaneers | RB |
Things start to get weird in this range, as many drafters start to reach for rookies a bit earlier than they should go. That's likely what happens with Isaiah Spiller, as he is more popular on fan boards than in most draft analyst circles. Spiller can be a starting NFL back, but he shouldn't go higher than more established runners like Elijah Mitchell or James Conner, but he likely will in many dynasty startups.
We start to see the rookie receivers come off the board here, as well. As we've said before, the early success of pass-catchers like Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb will push this deep receiver class up fantasy boards come draft time. Our favorite is Drake London thanks to his immense touchdown potential, but we expect some will like Jamison Williams and Garrett Wilson better. Many fantasy analysts have Treylon Burks ahead of them all, but we aren't sure why.
Also, keep an eye on Elijah Moore. There are whispers he could be included in a trade for Deebo Samuel. If Moore were to join the 49ers' offense, it could have a range of impacts. Our instinct would be to elevate his value slightly since he would be going to a much more effective offense, but his upside may be capped with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on the same roster.
Rounds 6-7: Dynasty Leagues Mock Draft
| Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
| 6 | 61 | Analyst 6 | Brandon Aiyuk | 49ers | WR |
| 6 | 62 | Analyst 5 | Chris Olave | TBD | WR |
| 6 | 63 | The Trend Setters | Michael Pittman Jr. | Colts | WR |
| 6 | 64 | Jack Reacher | Elijah Mitchell | 49ers | RB |
| 6 | 65 | Analyst 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | WR |
| 6 | 66 | Basic B’s | Joe Burrow | Bengals | QB |
| 6 | 67 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Treylon Burks | TBD | WR |
| 6 | 68 | Analyst 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | RB |
| 6 | 69 | Zero RB 4 Life | James Conner | Cardinals | RB |
| 6 | 70 | Analyst 2 | Darren Waller | Raiders | TE |
| 6 | 71 | Mavericks | A.J. Dillon | Packers | RB |
| 6 | 72 | Analyst 1 | Marquise Brown | Ravens | WR |
| 7 | 73 | Analyst 1 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | QB |
| 7 | 74 | Mavericks | Chase Claypool | Steelers | WR |
| 7 | 75 | Analyst 2 | Darnell Mooney | Bears | WR |
| 7 | 76 | Zero RB 4 Life | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Chiefs | RB |
| 7 | 77 | Analyst 3 | Tony Pollard | Cowboys | RB |
| 7 | 78 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Kareem Hunt | Browns | RB |
| 7 | 79 | Basic B’s | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Chiefs | WR |
| 7 | 80 | Analyst 4 | Mike Williams | Chargers | WR |
| 7 | 81 | Jack Reacher | Allen Robinson | Rams | WR |
| 7 | 82 | The Trend Setters | James Cook | TBD | RB |
| 7 | 83 | Analyst 5 | Miles Sanders | Eagles | RB |
| 7 | 84 | Analyst 6 | Rashaad Penny | Seahawks | RB |
Some of the better values in this range may be veterans like James Conner, Marquise Brown, and Elijah Mitchell. Each of those players is being devalued for one reason or another in fantasy chats, meaning you could steal them in the seventh round of a startup. In this scenario, people reached for rookies early, leaving valuable vets like these at a bargain price.
A few question marks we have about players going in this range include the value of Treylon Burks, Rashaad Penny, James Cook, and Chase Claypool. Each player has flashed upside at one time or another, but that upside comes with serious concerns about opportunities and/or consistency. Cook and Burks go particularly high in this mock, thanks to the fact fantasy boards seem to love them much more than we do. Cook goes to the Rams like many are projecting, and Burks ends up someplace like New England or Arizona, both could struggle to get touches early.
Finally, we repeat our advice from the re-draft version of this mock. Brandon Aiyuk can be had for pennies on the dollar now, but his stock could explode if Deebo Samuel is traded. It's worth taking Aiyuk in the sixth round of dynasty drafts on the chance he is San Francisco's true #1 next year.
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