RADIO
Dan Palyo analyzes Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Aaron Ashby as an SP sleeper for the 2022 Fantasy Baseball season.
If you're old enough to remember Andy Ashby, then you're probably wondering if Aaron is related and the answer is yes. Aaron is Andy's nephew and the former is a southpaw hurler who made quite a splash in his MLB debut in 2021.
While he only threw 31.2 innings for Milwaukee last year, he pitched well enough to get the attention of fantasy baseball players. He made four starts and nine relief appearances and piled up 39 strikeouts, flashing some serious upside at times.
It remains to be seen whether or not he will crack the rotation or pitch out the bullpen to start the season, but Ashby is an elite pitching prospect who definitely deserves our consideration in drafts this season. Let's break it down and start with his background.
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Background
Ashby is the top prospect in the Brewers organization and a top-50 prospect in all of major league baseball. He hasn't pitched all that many innings in the minors, but he's flashed major strikeout potential at every stop. After missing the entire 2020 season due to the pandemic, Ashby skipped Double-A entirely and went right to Triple-A last season where he had a 36% strikeout rate in 63 innings (12 starts, nine relief appearances).
He made his major league debut on June 30th and it couldn't have been much worse as he walked three, struck out no one, and allowed four runs on seven hits as he failed to get through one inning. He made three other starts before eventually being moved to the pen where he was lights out until his final outing of the year when he allowed six runs on three hits and three walks against the Dodgers.
If you throw out his first and last outings, his stats were pretty damn impressive and his xERA (3.03), xFIP (3.05), and FIP (3.58) all suggest that his ERA was a bit inflated compared to where we would expect it to be.
He had a 65% groundball rate in Triple-A and a 61% rate in the majors. When you pair that with his strikeout ability, that's the formula for a really effective young pitcher.
Strikeout Artist
A rookie who posted a 29% strikeout rate has to be someone we really take seriously, right? His slider was simply lights-out and had the third-lowest batting average against of any pitch that was thrown 200 or more times last year.
Aaron Ashby, Filthy Sliders. pic.twitter.com/D2L6lognIB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 30, 2021
A 42% whiff rate on that slider is incredible and it clearly baffled hitters, even right-handers who hit only .184 off Ashby.
The slider had above average horizontal and vertical movement and was easily his most effective pitch with a -4 run value. The sinker was his worst pitch in terms of results, but he throws it hard and it's very effective when he gets the down and away movement to righties or down and in to lefties as he does here.
Aaron Ashby with a NASTY sinker for the K - a full foot of horizontal break. pic.twitter.com/IxoFsIqWx8
— Kyle Kishimoto (@kylemoto10) August 14, 2021
He just was very inconsistent with the sinker and to be fair, he had only recently switched over to throwing the two-seamer from a more conventional four-seamer within the last year. His other main offspeed pitch was a changeup that also had some great vertical movement and a solid 34.6% whiff rate.
Seeing plenty of early hype around Aaron Ashby. I too, am a fan.
31.2 IP, 4.55 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 3.18 SIERA
29.3% K rate
61.3% GB42% whiff on the slider
34.6% whiff on the changeup
BB rate (9%) will be a big factor.Price will📈if he's confirmed to start in the rotation. pic.twitter.com/pbwK56CzOP
— Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) November 16, 2021
I tried to include visuals for all three pitches just to illustrate how nasty his stuff is. Clearly, there are still some growing pains that we associate with young pitchers to be expected as he's walked too many hitters and hasn't been able to consistently locate his pitches either. If he can continue to improve his control, the sky is the limit for this kid, and being in the same clubhouse with other elite starters certainly can't hurt either.
What to Expect in 2022
We are only a few games into Spring Training, but the competition for the Brewers' fifth starter job should be interesting. Adrian Houser should slot into the fourth starter role behind the elite big three of Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes, leaving fellow southpaw Eric Lauer as Ashby's main competition for the fifth spot.
Barring an injury or Lauer completely getting destroyed this spring, Ashby is likely to open up in the bullpen but he's not likely to get sent back to Triple-A. He's proven he has the chops to pitch at the MLB level already and he's been effective as both a starter and reliever in his limited sample.
I think it's reasonable to expect him to crack the rotation at some point. If there is an injury to any of Milwaukee's top-five, he's the next guy in, and if he pitches well in relief, he could definitely push Lauer out if Lauer struggles. We also know that some teams may opt to go with a six-man rotation to start the season as they try to ease pitchers into their usual workloads after a shortened Spring Training.
Where to Draft
Ashby is going right around pick 275 in drafts, so he's not super sneaky or anything. I do think the hype surrounding him is real and it's not like he's being overdrafted or anything. Ideally, his ADP will drop in the next week or two if they announce he starts out in the bullpen and you might be able to get him even cheaper than that, but I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on him around his current ADP of rounds 29-30. He's a legit prospect with a ton of upside and definitely a guy that I want to invest in this season.
