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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 11. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
We're onto the fourth edition of our hitter breakouts and fake outs article. You've been looking to see who's real, and we've been telling you thanks to using some stats like xwOBA (but never xwOBACON because honestly that one just makes me hungry).
Heading into Week 10, we still have some minutia we've got to dig through to determine who's benefiting from luck and who's getting true results. Buying into the hype early can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
I will break down four hot hitters exceeding preseason expectations in this article. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Jeremy Pena, Heliot Ramos, Andy Pages, and TJ Friedl. Now, let's get into it. All stats in this article reflect games played through Tuesday, 6/3.
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Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
2025 Stats: .847 OPS, 138 OPS+, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 32 R, 10 SB
As we mentioned last week with Isaac Paredes, the Astros have some big shoes to fill with Kyle Tucker's void in the lineup. Add in the fact that Yordan Alvarez has been battling injuries this season, too, and it makes it even more important for some of the other guys to step up.
Pena has been doing just that, to say the least. Over the last 14 days, coming into Wednesday's action, he's been hitting for a 1.023 OPS. Only Jose Altuve has produced better than Pena in that span, but he and Pena have been driving Houston's offensive success lately.
Peña power 💪
Jeremy Peña sends one off the top of the wall and out of here! pic.twitter.com/OVfIfWMIlm
— MLB (@MLB) May 28, 2025
Though he has a World Series MVP to his name, the 27-year-old has generally been a league-average hitter. Before this season, his highest OPS+ in his career sat at 102 in 2022 when Houston won the World Series. Outside of that, he's been consistent, but his OPS+ was just 99 in both 2023 and 2024. So, a 138 OPS+ this season is a welcome surprise.
From a plate approach perspective, we do see some positives. His strikeout rate is down from 17.1 percent to 13.4 percent. He's had a continuous downward trend throughout his career, lowering his strikeout rate from 24.2 percent in his rookie season to 13.4 percent. He's also seeing an increase in walks, as that's jumped from 3.8 percent to 6.3 percent this season. Though a low number, any increase in walks will be beneficial.
From a batted ball perspective, we see an almost identical profile to what we did in 2024. His flyball rate is only 0.5 percent different than last season, while his groundball rate is 1.5 percent less. That's a good sign, but nothing indicates a more concerted effort for my flyballs and line drives.
What we do see is an increase in HR/FB percent. He was at 9.6 percent last season, and that's jumped to 14.5 percent this season. It's still lower than the 17.3 percent he posted in 2022, but it's his highest mark since then. In 2022, he hit 22 homers. Many of the models on Fangraphs currently project him to end right around that number, making 2025 a true career year for him if this pace keeps up.
Jeremy Peña wants in on some lead-off bomb action pic.twitter.com/kLSpJ3E8P2
— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) May 31, 2025
As we start to dive into the expected stats, Pena has a noticeable gap. His current .370 wOBA is paired with a .346 xwOBA. That ranks in the 66th percentile. So, it's not bad, but it does point to negative regression heading for the 27-year-old.
As we look at how pitchers attack him, they lead with sinkers, four-seam fastballs, and sliders. Pena is getting a bit lucky on each of these pitches. With sinkers, he hits them for a .439 wOBA that's paired with a .408 xwOBA. Four-seamers he's hitting for a .498 wOBA and a .423 xwOBA. Sliders he's hitting for a .381 wOBA and a .300 xwOBA.
On sinkers and four-seamers, he's still putting up excellent expected numbers. So even though we'll see negative regression there, he'll still produce when he sees them. Sinkers (24.7 percent usage) and four-seamers (20.3 percent usage) make up the majority of pitches he sees when he's at the plate.
Going forward, I would expect pitchers to veer away from sinkers and four-seamers as often as they do and instead attack him with changeups. This is Pena's clear weakness as he hits them for just a .064 wOBA with a .120 xwOBA. Last season, he had a .231 xwOBA against changeups, making it something pitchers should focus on when facing him. The problem pitchers will face is that you need fastballs to help set up the changeup, so Pena may still hit those well, but I'd expect him to see that pitch more often.
Verdict: Without much change in Pena's batted ball profile, and clear negative regression heading his way, it's easy to see that he's currently overachieving. When all is said and done, I expect his OPS+ to settle in the range of 115-120. That's more than acceptable for your traditional hitter, so fantasy managers shouldn't take this to mean they should cut bait or sell high now, but he won't produce as highly as he has these past few weeks for much longer. He's worth a spot on your roster, but know that production will dip here soon.
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
2025 Stats: .851 OPS, 143 OPS+, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 39 R, 5 SB
The Giants aren't exactly a team that's known for their offense, but Ramos is trying to do his part in changing that narrative. The 25-year-old is capitalizing on a breakout 2024 season and is doing even better in 2025, leading the Giants in HR while being tied for the team lead in RBI.
After limited playing time in 2022 and 2023, Ramos burst onto the scene in 2024 after getting called up in May. He posted up an .888 in the first half of the season but cooled off in the second half with a modest .695 OPS.
Heliot Ramos doubles to tie the game in the 7th! pic.twitter.com/jb7NDPOsnD
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 5, 2025
His plate approach has remained somewhat similar from year to year. His 7.1 percent walk rate in 2024 is up a touch to 7.4 percent. We see a decrease in strikeouts, which have dropped from 26.1 percent to 23 percent. For the most part, we're seeing the same approach as we did before.
His batted ball profile is where the picture of how the rest of the season will go starts to get painted. His flyball percentage is down (36.9 percent to 32.4 percent), and his line drive percentage is down (20.1 percent to 17.9 percent). That can only mean one thing, which is that his groundball rate is seeing a modest increase, going from 43 percent in 2024 to 49.7 percent in 2025.
One good sign is that his HR/FB rate has increased a touch from 17.3 percent to 19.6 percent. While we're seeing fewer balls in the air than we would like, he's at least doing damage with them when he does hit fly balls.
As we move on to expected stats, the numbers show negative regression coming, as we would expect with a higher groundball rate. But it doesn't sound as drastic as it could be. His .369 wOBA is paired with a .353 xwOBA. That still ranks him in the 75th percentile, so it suggests that even when regression does hit, he'll still be performing at a high level.
I'm a bit skeptical of that, though, given that he has a .346 BABIP on the season so far. Last year, it sat at .329 in his 121 games played. So, based on that, we should expect it to fall. Maybe not to the .300 number we anticipate for most hitters, but it's going to make an impact.
With his high BABIP and high groundball rate, he profiles fairly similarly to Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood. I wrote about Wood's hot start a few weeks ago in this column, and was high on him then and am still high on him now. With Ramos, I am less optimistic given that he doesn't hit the ball as hard as Wood and his barrel rate is lower as well. While the profiles are similar, Ramos may be more likely to see his grounders turn into outs.
How pitchers have attacked Ramos this season has mainly been with a mix of four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and sliders. Most of the negative regression we expect for Ramos will come from four-seamers (.433 wOBA, .386 xwOBA) and sinkers (.402 wOBA, .387 xwOBA). With those making up over 51 percent of the pitches he's seeing, this is where the negative regression will hit hardest.
But with sliders, which he sees 15.2 percent of the time, he's expecting positive regression. He hits them for a .317 wOBA, and that's paired with a .359 xwOBA. If pitchers choose to use a slider as their off-speed pitch of choice, then they likely won't see good results off it. All said and done, Ramos' top three pitches all having an xwOBA over .350 is rather solid.
Heliot Ramos leads the Giants in hits, batting average, home runs, and OPS!
He has broken out in a MASSIVE way this season.
pic.twitter.com/ifIXTGSOPo— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 4, 2025
What I would expect pitchers to throw more to the Giants' righty is changeups. Currently, he's mashing them for a .413 wOBA, but that's paired with a .287 xwOBA. It is evident that he's benefiting from luck, and if pitchers stick to it, they'll start to get better results against Ramos if they throw more changeups to him.
Verdict: While he has similarities to James Wood, Ramos doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt from me. I do believe that negative regression will hit him a bit harder than what the expected stats say, and that his current 143 OPS+ will likely drop to a 115-120 number, similar to Pena. You're going to want him on your roster, but he won't continue to provide you with upper-echelon production unless he finds a way to hit more line drives and fly balls. The grounders will start catching up to him soon.
Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Stats: .808 OPS, 128 OPS+, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 28 R, 6 SB
Andy Pages came bursting onto the scene last year with the Dodgers, posting an electric start before moving on through what was a very up-and-down season for him. That amounted to a 101 OPS+ in 116 games. This year, Pages is up to a 128 OPS+ through 57 games.
He's also followed a bit of a similar pattern this year. March and April were great months for him, posting up an .891 OPS and then dipping to a .691 OPS in May. He's started to do well through his first few games in June, signaling that this may be the right month to count on him before the eventual dip in July or August.
Andy Pages on an absolute HEATER 🔥🔥🔥#Dodgers pic.twitter.com/6Uuv7Mm9xL
— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) April 27, 2025
The 24-year-old has evidently made some changes to his plate approach this season as he's only striking out 19.2 percent of the time compared to the 24.4 percent mark he put up last season. Pages hasn't put up a strikeout rate this low across 200 or more PA since rookie ball when he was 17. His walk rate has decreased from 6.5 percent to 5.6 percent, but that's not going to move the needle either way.
From a batted ball perspective, we can see that there are not a whole lot of changes, though he is hitting more grounders (35.3 percent compared to 32.1 percent in 2024). Most of that comes from a decrease in flyballs (41.6 percent compared to 45.5 percent in 2024), but neither percentage swing should move the needle. He's still hitting a high rate of line drives, and that's helping to drive much of his success.
Bang-bang play at the plate as the @Dodgers tack on some insurance!#FridayNightBaseball pic.twitter.com/f6JG0aTIGU
— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2025
One aspect that's changed for Pages is a decent increase in his HR/FB rate. Last season it stood at 9.6 percent, and this year it's jumped to 15.3 percent. Though that number isn't incredibly high, that's a significant jump. Last season, he hit 13 homers, and he already has 11 this season. Fangraphs' models project him to finish with about 25 homers, helping to drive quite a bit more fantasy value than was expected from him to start the season.
Moving on to expected stats, we have yet another hitter expecting negative regression. His current wOBA is .352, and that's paired with a .340 xwOBA. The 12-point gap isn't gigantic, but it's negative regression nonetheless. His xwOBA is in the 60th percentile, putting him in the company of guys like Maikel Garcia and Enrique Hernandez. Interestingly enough, his xwOBA is only two points behind one of his fellow teammates you may have heard of: Mookie Betts.
Pages has been most valuable, according to Baseball Savant's "Run Value" stat, when facing four-seamers and sliders. He hits four seamers for a .377 wOBA (.380 xwOBA) and sliders for a .389 wOBA (.317 xwOBA). While expecting negative regression from sliders, he's expecting positive regression on sinkers. He's hit those for a .340 wOBA to go with a .357 xwOBA. That doesn't quite balance out the negative regression we'll see from him facing sliders, but it does help a bit.
One pitch he should do better against going forward is cutters. He's been awful against them, hitting them for just a .077 BA and a .096 wOBA. But that's paired with a .250 xwOBA, so positive regression is coming with that pitch. It's not like a .250 wOBA is anything to brag about, but he should see a little bump there soon.
Verdict: Pages should end the season with a small drop in production from where he stands today. Instead of a 128 OPS+, he should end in the range of 115-120, similar to what I'm projecting for Pena and Ramos. The main thing fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on, though, is his streakiness. He can help you pull out wins you weren't expecting when he starts to get hot. But when he's cold, make sure he's not in your lineup. It's a bit of a rollercoaster with him, but as long as you read it right, you'll do well.
TJ Friedl, Cincinnati Reds
2025 Stats: .809 OPS, 120 OPS+, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 35 R, 9 SB
After an injury-riddled 2024 season, TJ Friedl has worked his way back to becoming an important piece of Cincinnati's lineup. As the Reds' leadoff man, he currently leads the team in hits (68) and is second in runs scored (35). He also has the defensive highlight of the season after robbing Jake Bauers of what would have been a game-tying home run.
His 120 OPS+ nearly mirrors his 2023 season, when he hit for a 117 OPS+, making this a potential career year for the 29-year-old. But how much of what we're seeing is real with him?
The drunks in the bleachers are still sober as TJ Friedl sent this one their way pic.twitter.com/H8QXZD1Nur
— ATBBTTR (@ATBBTTR) May 30, 2025
For starters, his plate approach has been much better this season regarding walks. He walked at a 7.6 percent rate in 2024, which rose to 11.2 percent in 2025. That would be a career high for him if that mark holds. His strikeout rate of 15.9 percent is consistent with what we've seen from him throughout his career.
From a batted ball perspective, there's at least one concerning change. His flyball percentage has dropped from 45.4 percent in 2024 to 32 percent this season. That's resulting in a five percent increase in groundball rate (37.1 percent to 42.9 percent). A positive is that it's also resulting in an increase in line drives (17.5 percent to 25.1 percent), so the decrease in flyball rate is somewhat minimized by that.
His HR/FB rate has also dropped from 11.9 percent to 7.1 percent. That'd be less concerning if he were hitting more fly balls, but since he's hitting fewer, that means less likelihood for production. From a fantasy perspective, he will continue to be a guy who gets it in play but doesn't hit for power.
Taking a look at his Baseball Savant page and it becomes even more clear what type of hitter he his. It's very red in areas you'd expect (whiff rate, chase rate, strikeout rate, walk rate) but very blue in the power areas (xwOBA, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity). His current .360 wOBA is paired with a .309 xwOBA, pointing towards a rather large amount of negative regression heading his way.
Much of that is going to be because of his combination of soft contact and a lack of power. The ground ball rate isn't as high as what we examined with Ramos, but the difference is that Ramos hits the ball a bit harder and can connect on the long ball. Friedl generally won't.
Pitchers have attacked him with four-seamers, sinkers, sliders, and changeups. Four-seamers make up 39 percent of pitches he sees, and he's been hitting them for a .406 wOBA paired with a .347 xwOBA. Each of the next three pitches has a negative regression paired with it as well. Sinkers are hit at a .301 wOBA with a .259 xwOBA, sliders are hit at a .368 wOBA with a .273 xwOBA, and changeups are hit at a .414 wOBA with a .331 xwOBA.
The picture being painted very clearly is that Friedl has been a major beneficiary of luck. Those four pitches make up about 75 percent of the pitches he sees. When three-quarters of the pitches you see all say you have negative regression coming, it makes it very hard to ignore.
One pitch I expect Friedl to stay dominant on is cutters. He's only seeing them 7.2 percent of the time, but he hits them for a .442 wOBA and a .451 xwOBA. It's less likely that he'll see those all that often, but when he faces someone with a cutter, he should be able to succeed against them.
Verdict: Friedl makes for a powerful "sell high" candidate. Negative regression will hit him hard, as evidenced by the gap between his wOBA and xwOBA, as well as his .354 BABIP. That xwOBA puts him in the same company as Chandler Simpson and Heston Kjerstad. Sell high to whoever's willing to bite.
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