Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results

May 17, 2025

Kevin analyzes 4 hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging for Week 8. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

As we creep towards two months of the season being complete it's becoming more important to decipher who's for real and who isn't. Bank on the right player's breakout and you could be winning a title at the end of the season. Bank on the wrong player and you'll find yourself in the consolation bracket.

As we're just seven weeks in, there's still a lot of minutia to wade through regarding stats. Buying into the hype early can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.

In this article, I will break down four surprisingly hot hitters that have been exceeding preseason expectations. We will find out who's real and who isn't between Pete Crow-Armstrong, Wilyer Abreu, Tyler Soderstrom, and James Wood. Now let's get it.

Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox

2025 Stats: .930 OPS, 157 OPS+, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 24 R, 4 SB

There's really only one detriment to Abreu's current form, and it's that he's mainly a platoon bat brought in to demolish righties. But it's for good reason: He absolutely mashes righties. His 11 HRs led the Red Sox, and 143 of his 168 PAs came against righties.

The power is a great sign to see for the lefty, especially since he hit 15 HR in 447 last season. He is set to easily surpass that number by a wide margin. Similar to what we saw with Crow-Armstrong, Abreu is making a very concerted effort to get more balls in the air as his flyball rate has increased from 47.3 percent to 57.5 percent.

The 2nd-longest HR of Wilyer Abreu's career. 430.

He has 10 tanks.

That's a 38 HR pace. pic.twitter.com/c5wArJUCQI

— Mike Monaco (@MikeMonaco_) May 11, 2025

While increasing his flyball rate, he's also increased his HR/FB rate from 11.4 percent to 16.9 percent. His barrel rate has increased similarly, showing that he's seeing the ball better and smashing it when he gets it.

From an overall plate approach, we also see major changes in the 25-year-old. His strikeout rate has been cut down from 28 percent to 19.6 percent. His walk rate has also increased from 8.9 percent to 13.1 percent. That walk rate sits in the 84th percentile and makes Abreu one of the tougher outs in Boston.

All that adds up to a .396 wOBA and a .418 xwOBA, meaning positive regression is coming for an already dominant stat line. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and more homers make every three true outcomes enthusiast ecstatic to see.

The only real weakness to Abreu's game right now is his battle against four-seamers. He's hitting them for a .193 batting average and a .317 wOBA. Most every other pitch he's faced, he hits for a wOBA around .370, except for sliders and sweepers. The good news for his approach against four-seamers, though, is he's got a .352 xwOBA against them.

Wilyer Abreu (11)
Solo Home Run

Opponent: Detroit Tigers
Pitcher: Jackson Jobe
Date: 5/12/25 pic.twitter.com/WSh0NcB1BC

— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) May 13, 2025

That's where most of the positive regression will come as he sees four-seamers 44.4 percent of the time. This is a similar trend to what he saw last season when he saw four-seamers 40 percent of the time.

Pitchers will need to get creative when facing Abreu, as the only pitch he faces with an xwOBA below .350 is the sweeper, but he only sees those 3.8 percent of the time. It's safe to say that, in most pitches the lefty gets, we can expect he'll get good results against them.

Verdict: Not only is what we're seeing from Abreu real, but he's also getting positive regression coming his way, which will only make him more valuable to fantasy managers. You'll need to be aware of platoon matchups, but the young Red Sox slugger will punish most righties he faces. Buy into what he's selling.

Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics

2025 Stats: .830 OPS, 130 OPS+, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 2 SB

Another lefty for us to look at, who's starting hot, Tyler Soderstrom, has started to find his groove in his third season in the majors. With his OPS increasing in each season, the 23-year-old has appeared in every A's game this season. That's great for fantasy managers banking on consistency day in and day out.

His nine homers on the season match what he did in 2024, giving us another player who should set a new career high in HR thanks to improved results. Fangraphs projects him to finish anywhere between 25-30 HRs, a solid mark for fantasy managers to target when evaluating power.

Tyler Soderstrom launches one way beyond the center field fence 💪 #OpeningDay pic.twitter.com/HR9q1mD8QW

— MLB (@MLB) March 28, 2025

Much of Soderstrom's success this season is a bit of a continuation of who he was in 2024. There's not a discernible difference between his barrel rate and hard hit rate from season to season, though both are slight increases.

Where we start to see bigger differences are with his batted ball profile. He's hitting fewer groundballs (down seven percent) and more line drives (up seven percent). The flyball rate is about the same, but his HR/FB rate is seeing an increase from 17.3 percent to 20 percent.

TYLER SODERSTROM HOMERS AGAIN 😤

His Major League-leading total is now up to EIGHT! pic.twitter.com/qNXEE8Xf1Y

— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2025

Soderstrom generally crushed four-seam fastballs in 2024, and that trend has continued in 2025 as he's hitting them for a .468 wOBA and a .452 xwOBA. Pitchers have been able to combat that with changeups, as he's only hitting them for a .226 wOBA. However, that's paired with a .334 xwOBA, so pitchers will need to find another way to get Soderstrom out.

Perhaps the best option could be curveballs as the 23-year-old has a .215 xwOBA against curves, pretty much his only apparent weakness. As a whole his .362 wOBA is paired with a .380 xwOBA, meaning we've got two great words coming to him: positive regression.

Verdict: The A's lefty is giving great results, and the underlying stats are pointing towards even better things coming to him. With his consistency from year to year, Soderstrom's 2025 is real, and there's more in the tank. Buy into the lefty.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

2025 Stats: .852 OPS, 139 OPS+, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 32 R, 13 SB

At the time of this writing, it may surprise you to learn that it's Crow-Armstrong who leads the Cubs in home runs. Not newly acquired Kyle Tucker. Not Japanese superstar Seiya Suzuki. It's the 23-year-old PCA who's providing the power on the north side. He's already hit more bombs in 2025 than in 123 games in 2024, so what's behind the surge?

For starters, there's a very simple chance in his approach and he's clearly focusing on hitting more fly balls. His 42.5 percent flyball rate in 2024 has increased to 55.4 percent in 2025. While that doesn't quite mean immediate success, he's increased his HR/FB rate up to 16.4 percent. After a nine percent mark last season it's a clear improvement from season to season.

May the odds be in Pete's favor. pic.twitter.com/VE7pmktLyP

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 23, 2025

But you can't just hit the ball in the air and expect success. You still need to make good quality contact, and Crow-Armstrong has been doing that. His barrel percentage of 14.2 percent ranks in the 82nd percentile. His xWOBACON (Expected wOBA based on contact) sits at .440 on the season. That outpaces Vladimir Guerrero Jr., for context.

Where he's seeing the most improvement lies in the two pitches he sees the most: Four-seam fastballs and sliders. Last season, PCA hit for a .284 wOBA against four-seamers and a .224 wOBA against sliders. This season, he's getting much better results, hitting for a .387 wOBA on four-seamers and a .406 wOBA on sliders.

we hope this homer finds you well. pic.twitter.com/EVUj5VjvOB

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 14, 2025

The big thing we have to evaluate here is how that compares to the expected stats. Both pitches project negative regression, though one pitch may be more detrimental than the other. On four-seamers, he has an xwOBA of .349, a 38-point drop from his raw results. That will hurt, but not terribly so.

On sliders, however, his xwOBA is .285, a sharp 121-point drop from his raw results. This is likely where much of his negative regression will come from. It's not a death knell, though, as he sees sliders 12.2 percent of the time. So, the regression will be mitigated somewhat as pitchers look to other pitches with which to attack him.

That new pitch will likely be the curveball, where PCA is hitting for a .147 wOBA with a .139 xwOBA. Expect pitchers with solid curveballs to use this more when he's at the plate.

From a holistic perspective, his .365 wOBA is paired with a .350 xwOBA. Given the rather large negative regression we're expecting from his at-bats against sliders, that's not all too detrimental.

Outside of that, his stats do not show much funkiness. His plate approach seems to be similar from season to season, as his strikeout percentage and walk percentage are almost identical to his 2024 results. So, for Crow-Armstrong, it all comes down to whether he'll continue to get similar contact on pitches he's seeing.

Verdict: What we're seeing out of PCA is maybe a bit of an overachievement, but his results are certainly improved from last season. He has some lasting power, and fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned about any sharp drop-offs in production in the near future. Success via the long ball will likely taper off soon, but he's hitting the ball well enough that he should still find ways to get extra base hits and get you fantasy value.

James Wood, Washington Nationals

2025 Stats: .899 OPS, 155 OPS+, 11 HR, 24 RBI, 24 R, 5 SB

Maybe a bit under the radar playing in Washington, James Wood has started off 2025 by announcing his presence loudly. Driving the Nationals' offense alongside CJ Abrams, Wood leads the Nationals in homers, runs, and RBI. He's doing it all in DC.

In 2024, Wood posted strong numbers, including a .342 wOBA with nine HR in 336 PA. His 11 HR in 190 PA this season shows a major surge in power. As with the other hitters we've analyzed today, this is driven mainly by an increase in fly balls.

James Wood just improved my mood a bit.

pic.twitter.com/i9AhNzkE5w

— Ben Strober (@benstrobermedia) May 13, 2025

However, Wood's story is a bit different given how low his flyball rate is. In 2024, it was at just 22.2 percent. This season it's increased to 31.3 percent, which is solid to see but lower than you'd expect for a guy with 11 bombs on the season.

The positive here is that when Wood gets it in the air it's likely he's going to crush it. Even last season he posted a HR/FB rate of 20.5 percent and this year it's up to 30.6 percent. He's not the most prolific fly ball hitter but when it's in the air he gets results.

With his plate approach we're seeing improvements in both strikeouts and walks. Last season he walked 11.6 percent of the time and had a strikeout rate of 28.9 percent. This season the walk rate is at 13.2 percent and the strikeout rate is at 25.8 percent. While that's a higher strikeout rate than you'd like to see, the walks and great results when the ball's in play balance things out.

Pitchers are attacking Wood with four-seam fastballs 24.4 percent of the time, and honestly, they probably should stop if they want to have any sort of success. The 22-year-old is hitting four-seamers for a ridiculous .605 wOBA with a .606 xwOBA. That's not a typo on either number, and that means the results he's gotten off the pitch are true.

Wasn’t even a bad pitch.

James Wood is just that good. pic.twitter.com/hbIKUKIcrw

— Brady Hamilton (@BradyH_216) May 6, 2025

The only pitch Wood has truly struggled with this season is the sweeper, which he's hitting for a .219 wOBA with a .188 xwOBA. That's pretty much all pitchers are getting him with consistently. Overall, he has a .401 xwOBA, ranking in the eighth percentile. That means a small amount of positive regression is heading his way, too, making him potentially even more dangerous than he currently is.

Verdict: You'll be hard-pressed to find many hitters that are currently hitting as well as Wood whose results are true with positive regression on the way. He should continue to succeed at a high level. If he finds a way to get more balls in the air he will be even more dangerous and that's something fantasy managers will absolutely love.

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