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What's more fun than ranking all 30 MLB teams every week? That is what I get to do this season here at RotoBaller and I hope you check in every week to see how your favorite teams are faring in the rankings.
I am going to be factoring in past performance, current levels of performance, overall talent, and preseason expectations into the rankings - with the ladder being a bit more relevant now than it will be in later weeks.
It's only been a week, but we already have some teams that have started much stronger than others and some surprise teams that are already playing above or below expectations. We will start counting each week from the bottom with #30 and work our way up to the top spot.
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Excuse Me, But Spring Training Is Over
30. Miami Marlins (0-7)
The winless Marlins bring up the rear and this poor start is very discouraging for a fanbase that expected a much more competitive team. They are missing three stud starting pitchers (Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Sandy Alcantara - who is out for the season) but their pitching depth was supposed to be one of their strengths. Their run differential of -27 is third worst in the majors and the offense is going to need to get going (scoring only 3.4 runs per game) if they want to get out of the basement.
29. Colorado Rockies (1-6)
The Rockies have arguably the worst pitching staff in baseball and it's showing early. They've given up a whopping 8.2 runs per game over the season's first week. It looks like it's going to be a long season in Denver, and I would expect Colorado to hang around the bottom three all year.
28. Oakland Athletics (1-6)
The A's were expected to be one of the worst teams in the American League, but I am not sure we expected them to demote Esteury Ruiz in the first week and score only 15 runs. They have some decent young hitters on offense but have run into the buzzsaw or two solid groups of starting pitchers in Cleveland and Boston out of the gate. Their -29 run differential is the second-worst in the league behind Colorado.
27. New York Mets (0-4)
The Mets have had several games rained out already, but still find themselves winless after a week of action. Their team wRC+ of 56 is 29th in baseball and they are hitting .197 as a team to start. Their offense should be better than that, but their starting pitching is very dicey. They got a great start from Sean Manaea, but Tylor Megill, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana all struggled and failed to go very deep into the game.
26. Chicago White Sox (1-4)
The White Sox rolled out a rookie on opening day and were rewarded when Garrett Crochet struck out 8 Tigers and looked like an actual ace. He pitched well against the Braves in his second start, too, and is one of the few bright spots for Chicago so far.
Garrett Crochet looks to be the real deal
Through 2 starts:
13 IP | 6 H | 2 ER | 2 BB | 16 Kspic.twitter.com/6A5E8BxWKo
— David Mendelson (@DMendy02) April 3, 2024
This team has few offensive weapons outside Luis Robert and their pitching behind Crochet gets really thin. Michael Kopech looks like he's being trained to be a closer and perhaps the White Sox can cash him in at the deadline for some talent. But otherwise, this is a rebuilding campaign for the Southsiders and they're not likely to move out of this tier.
Not Very Good, But Expected
25. Washington Nationals (2-3)
The Nats have been more competitive so far this season, and have just a -8 run differential through five games. They have some fun players on offense like C.J. Abrams and Lane Thomas, but their pitching will ultimately be their demise. Outside of MacKenzie Gore, no Nationals starter has much upside in 2024 and I would expect them to be among the worst pitching staffs in baseball by the end of the season.
24. Kansas City Royals (2-4)
The Royals have an ace pitcher in Cole Ragans and a legit MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr. After that, there's not too much to get excited about in Kansas City this season. They do play in the worst division in the AL, so perhaps they can hang around for a bit early in the year, but I would expect them to finish no higher than 3rd in the division (and likely fourth as Detroit looks frisky to start the season).
23. San Francisco Giants (2-5)
Perhaps I am too low on the Giants as they have both middling offensive and pitching numbers to start the year. But this division is brutal and having so many games against the Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs is going to be tough. I see it as an uphill battle in the Bay area this year, though this team usually finds a way to compete. If Blake Snell can make an impact in the rotation, then perhaps they get going and bumped up a bit in the rankings eventually.
22. St. Louis Cardinals (3-4)
St. Louis fans aren't used to seeing sub-par baseball, but they might need to adjust their expectations this season. This team has a very average (at best) offense and a mediocre pitching staff. Finishing in the bottom two of the NL Central is well within the range of outcomes this season.
Wait, What Are You Doing Here?
21. Detroit Tigers (4-0)
The Tigers are the last undefeated team in baseball but have a doubleheader today against the Mets. The pitching has been solid so far for Detroit, as they have allowed just two runs per game. However, they will need to get the offense going to maintain their winning ways as they have scored just four runs per contest. This is a really interesting team so far who plays in a weak division.
Tarik Skubal, Vicious 88mph Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/c8plkow8wC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 28, 2024
They'll need Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty to stay healthy to maintain a starting pitching advantage and they'll need at least one of Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Reese Olson to take a step forward in their development.
20. Milwaukee Brewers (4-1)
The Brewers are off to a nice start, but a +3 run differential tells us that they've been fortunate to win some close games early. They're not expected to contend this year and I can't really rank them any higher than this until we see them beat some good teams or dominate with either offense or pitching.
19. Los Angeles Angels (4-2)
The Angels are in first place in the AL West as of today, but I would not expect that to last. The Angels have a -1 run differential despite having a winning record. They were manhandled in their opening series by the Orioles and then were fortunate enough to run into a slumping Marlins team in their second series. This team is bound for mediocrity as they lack much firepower on offense other than Mike Trout. And I'm not buying their pitching staff either as Tyler Anderson and Patrick Sandoval were horrible last season.
18. Pittsburgh Pirates (5-1)
Stop the presses! The Pirates were 5-0 for the first time in 40 years but finally dropped a game to Washington yesterday. The offense is as good as it's been in a long time, but plenty of questions remain about their starting pitching as Mitch Keller has looked rough and veterans Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales are well past their prime.
KeBryan Hayes MVP run is underway pic.twitter.com/63CPg2GhN9
— YinzerCrazy.com ⚫️🟡 (@yinzercrazyshow) March 30, 2024
They'll need Jared Jones to keep pitching like he did in his debut and Paul Skenes to join the rotation by May if they expect to remain competitive into the summer months.
17. Houston Astros (2-5)
The Astros had some tough luck losses in the opening series against the Yankees and won't be down here this far in the rankings for long. Their offense is finally heating up as they pummeled the Jays last night. They have a +7 run differential - the same as the 6-1 Yankees. Speaking of the Yankees...
16. New York Yankees (6-1)
How can I have a 6-1 team ranked so low? I am not sold just yet on the long-term viability of this team. They have been pretty lucky so far, pulling out several close games and sporting just a +7 run differential. Luis Gil was a nice surprise in his first start and Carlos Rodon has been better than I expected, but I still think this team is going to struggle at some point while Gerrit Cole is out and their offense lacks depth after the Soto-Judge duo. It's a great start for them here, but the division is going to be brutal.
Middle of The Road
15. Minnesota Twins (3-2)
The kids these days call it "MID" and it's used as an insult when you want to describe something as "nothing special." I had high hopes for the Twins in the preseason, but this team has been completely inept on offense, hitting just two home runs and scoring just 18 runs. Their pitching should carry them, but one of their potential breakout candidates Bailey Ober was shelled in his first start, muting the optimism about him a bit. I think they are still the favorites to win the AL Central, but Cleveland is tough enough to hang around and the Tigers could be pesky as well.
14. San Diego Padres (4-5)
The Padres were at a real disadvantage to start the year - having to play those two games in Korea against the Dodgers. They managed a split, but I have to think that trip messed up their usual preseason routines quite a bit. I have no idea how good this team is, but we do know they have plenty of talent on the mound and at the plate. The range of outcomes for this season is everything from 10-15 games under .500 to a wild card playoff appearance. Stay tuned!
13. Cincinnati Reds (4-2)
The Reds are one of four teams in the NL Central with winning records AND a positive run differential (+7). This division should be competitive this year with no team being all that much better than the rest and Cincy certainly has the amount of talent to make a postseason run. It's a shame they lost Matt McLain for such a large part of the season, but Nick Lodolo is set to return soon and this team could easily be in the contender category by next week with some wins.
12. Toronto Blue Jays (3-4)
The Jays are only one game under .500 but find themselves in last place in the AL East with a division-worst -14 run differential. It's not time to panic yet, but does this team have enough offense or pitching to compete with the elite teams in baseball? It feels like we could be heading towards a mediocre finish for Toronto, though it's really darn early. The AL East is just such a gauntlet this year.
11. Tampa Bay Rays (3-4)
Tampa came out of the gates on fire last season with the best record in baseball over the first month before finally cooling off. They're not starting this year as hot by any means. They have a -9 run differential after seven games and have been pretty lackluster on offense.
Aaron Civale, Nasty 76mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/RT9ttd2jGt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2024
Tampa has some pitching depth as former Cleveland Guardian Aaron Civale has been a solid surprise to start the year. Taj Bradley had to start the year on the IL and Tampa has two more good young pitchers that could return later in the season in Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. The Rays will battle this year, but it's an uphill battle to a playoff spot in a loaded AL East.
Contenders, Maybe?
10. Chicago Cubs (4-2)
The Cubs' offense has been a bright spot so far as they are scoring nearly seven runs per contest. I think by September it will be Chicago and Cincinnati in the final race for the NL Central. The Cubs offense is talented and their lineup is deep, but they'll probably need to acquire some pitching if they want to be a serious contender this season.
9. Philadelphia Phillies (2-4)
Yes, I know the Phillies are 2-4 but is anyone really buying that this team is not a playoff contender after one bad week? Zach Wheeler has looked like a Cy Young finalist through two starts and the Phillies are bound to get their bats going sooner rather than later. They had a tough matchup out of the gates with Atlanta and Cincinnati in their first two series. Don't panic, Philly, the Phillies are going to be okay.
8. Boston Red Sox (5-2)
The Twins have been letting me down, but I backed the Red Sox before the season started as one of my favorite underrated teams in baseball. The success so far has to be attributed to their pitching staff, which has allowed just two runs per game over their first seven.
Nick Pivetta, Curveball (foul) and VERY Elevated Fastball (Swinging K), Overlay
Why you might swing at that Fastball way above the zone... pic.twitter.com/pHuTHpjmc6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2024
Brayan Bello has been decent, but Nick Pivetta has been dominant and the rest of the rotation were incredibly effective in their debuts (Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock). We expected them to beat up Oakland, but taking two of three from Seattle in the opening series was impressive.
7. Cleveland Guardians (5-2)
We expected the Guardians to have one of the better starting pitching staffs in the AL, but I don't think anyone expected to see Shane Bieber look like a 2021 version of himself again or for the Guardians to lead the AL with nearly seven runs scored on offense.
The Guardians have a pesky collection of hitters who put the ball in play and don't strike out much. I'm not sure they'll keep up this pace, but the point is they can score enough to win regularly with how good their starting pitching is. Oh, and they are getting Gavin Williams back sometime in the next month probably, too.
6. Seattle Mariners (3-4)
This has to be considered a disappointing first week for a team that I considered to be a dark horse in the AL. The Mariners have scratched out just 17 runs on offense in 7 games and that simply won't do, even with an elite staff of starters. I think better days are ahead for Seattle, but they'll need this offense to click.
Contenders, For Sure
5. Baltimore Orioles (4-2)
Despite being third in the AL East right now, they are still my favorite to win the division. This organization has so much talent right now that they're Triple-A team is mashing opponents to smithereens, check this out.
Norfolk won 26-11 tonight!
This offense is insane. 65 runs in five games, 13 runs per game. pic.twitter.com/5pmf91E2sq
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 4, 2024
The Orioles have cavalry coming - both in their rotation (John Means and Kyle Bradish) and their lineup with youngsters like Jackson Holliday and Kyle Stowers (among others) who are likely to be up with the big league team sooner than later. And if the Orioles want to trade for a big-time starting pitcher before the deadline, they have a ton of minor-league talent to use as capital. I love the Orioles this season.
4. Texas Rangers (4-2)
It's tough to repeat as champs in any sport, but especially baseball as there are so many moving parts to any organization and a long season and grueling postseason. But the Rangers should be in the mix as their offense is largely intact from last year. They just lost Josh Jung for an extended amount of time, but have a talented rookie in Wyatt Langford who turned a lot of heads in the preseason. The rotation looks solid to start the year and this team should compete all season long.
3. Atlanta Braves (3-2)
The Braves and Diamondbacks both have a +21 run differential after one week, showcasing the fact that they both have really good pitching staffs and lineups. The Braves are a legit contender in the NL and probably stand a better chance of going toe to toe with the Dodgers in the NLCS, but for now, I have them one spot behind the Snakes based on how well that Arizona offense is clicking.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (4-3)
Arizona looks like last year's playoff run was no fluke. They're playing some solid baseball out of the gate and the signing of Jordan Montgomery to sure up their rotation is certainly going to help their chances, too. The offense is humming right along so far and could be a top-5 unit this season. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly look like they haven't lost a step and if we see Brandon Pfaadt take a step forward, the Snakes will have a formidable trio of starters.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (7-2)
I don't think anyone who follows baseball would argue this one, right? The Dodgers are so good, especially on offense where they lead the majors with 57 runs scored. The starting pitching has been solid to start and they have a remarkable amount of depth there. The front office spent a bajillion dollars this offseason to make sure this team is loaded top to bottom and that's exactly what they are. Right now, LA would be favored over any other MLB team in a 7-game series, right? I think so.
I'll see you next week for my newest batch of rankings - feel free to let me know what I got right and wrong!
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