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G'day RotoBallers! The fantasy playoffs are upon us, likely meaning your trade deadline may have come and gone. Keeping that in mind, perhaps now is a good time to start considering possible trade options heading into next season, should your league be either a keeper or dynasty format. Cashing in on recency bias is a good way of landing a player who could be either over or underperforming.
However, executing a trade at any time can be harder said than done. Not all managers love the idea of a trade, especially if they believe they will be the attempted target of a fantasy heist. Ensure you know your league and who might be willing to consider a player swap. While the option does exist, I recommend not having a league veto system. Ensure your commissioner is knowledgeable and transparent, and allow them to dictate trade decisions.
With all that out of the way, here are our current sell-high and buy-low candidates as you look ahead to a new season of fantasy basketball.
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Deandre Ayton, C - Portland Trail Blazers
Baller Move: Sell High
Any opportunity to sell high on Ayton is a good time, in my opinion. Since returning from yet another injury, he has put together arguably the best three-game stretch of his career. On a team with nothing to play for, Ayton has been able to realize some of that potential he is always talking about. During that time, he has been the seventh-ranked player in standard formats, averaging 28.3 points, 17.7 rebounds, and 1.7 combined steals and blocks.
Now don't get me wrong, it has been an incredible run of production when compared to the rest of the season. And therein lies the reasoning as to why we might look to move off him. Now in his sixth season, Ayton has certainly been able to talk the talk. However, he is yet to walk the walk, at least not for any sustained period of time.
He has the ability to deliver solid numbers in both rebounds and points, that much is clear. However, it's what he can't do, or hasn't been able to do, that should be talked about. Specifically, his lack of defensive contributions, minimal assist numbers, and lack of perimeter scoring.
Taking into consideration the larger sample size, as well as his questionable attitude, trying to move him when he is hot makes total sense. With that said, we certainly don't want to be undervaluing him, either. Chances are he can flirt with top-70 value for at least the next few years. If you are considering a change, trying to ship him out for any top-50 asset would be a wise move.
Collin Sexton, G - Utah Jazz
Baller Move: Sell High
Sexton has been tremendous this season, performing well above expectations. He is just outside the top 100 for the season but has been a borderline third-round asset over the past month. During that time, he has averaged 21.4 points per game to go with 5.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers. After beginning the season coming off the bench, he has carved out a role as a key piece of the starting unit, providing value as a consistent scoring threat with improved contributions as both a facilitator and a defender.
Seen as a complementary piece alongside the likes of Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, I think a case could be made for him having overtaken Clarkson in the pecking order. However, the Jazz have several young players who are also ascending when it comes to offensive priority. Perhaps the most obvious player is Keyonte George, who has taken some big steps in the past two weeks. Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh are two other players who can shoulder more of the scoring load if and when required.
This is such a nice bucket by Collin Sexton
Love the catch and go, attacking the defender's hips pic.twitter.com/fZUI0cFPkH
— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) March 13, 2024
With that in mind, there have to be at least a couple of questions when it comes to Sexton's long-term role in Utah. While he is likely to be a somewhat reliable source of points for the foreseeable future, it is hard to envisage him having a better season than the one he is currently putting together.
Much like Ayton, we want to be careful not to undervalue Sexton, especially as points are hard to come by later in fantasy drafts. Having him more as a backend standard league asset moving forward, trading him for a top-80 player would be something to seriously consider, as tough as it might be given his recent success.
LaMelo Ball, G - Charlotte Hornets
Baller Move: Buy Low
On the other end of the scale is Ball, who once again has delivered a highly underwhelming season. That makes two straight years in which fantasy managers have been left with a sour taste in their mouth, despite all of the upside. Multiple ankle injuries during the 2022-23 season resulted in Ball being available at a slight discount coming into this year. A repeat performance throughout this season is likely to see his draft stock fall again next year, in both redraft and dynasty formats.
If we simply consider his per-game numbers, it's clear he has the talent to be a first-round player for many years to come. A great example was early in the season when he scored at least 30 points in seven of nine games, tallying two double-doubles and one triple-double. He hit at least four three-pointers in seven of those games, while also providing 13 total steals. The proof is in the pudding, as they say, but all that people are going to be focused on is the fact he has played a combined 58 games in the past two years.
If you can look beyond the obvious and focus your attention on the talent, this is a great time to be buying low on him in dynasty. Despite all of the injury concerns, my opinion is that the reward still outweighs the risk, especially given he is still only 22 years of age. With all of the negativity surrounding both Ball and the Hornets, it makes sense to try and pry him away from his current manager, using a top-25 asset as bait.
Franz Wagner, F - Orlando Magic
Baller Move: Buy Low
Wagner, on the other hand, has put together his best season to date, thriving on a Magic team that has shown significant improvement over the past six months. With averages of 20.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers, he clocks in as the 67th-ranked player in standard nine-category leagues. Now in his third season, he has been able to increase his production across the board in each of those years. This in itself is a great sign of things to come.
When attempting to buy him at a discount, managers are going to need to sell the narrative that this team belongs to Paolo Banchero. Another point to raise is the fact that his production has declined over the past month, much like it did in each of the past two seasons. Over that time, he sits outside the top 150 in standard leagues, well below where fantasy managers would like to see him.
Franz Wagner is an incredibly good defender pic.twitter.com/5QT2niiSai
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) March 7, 2024
Although he is unlikely ever to be the first option on any team, Wagner possesses a very fantasy-friendly game, providing solid production on both ends of the floor. Orlando's arrow is firmly pointed up at the moment and for them to push into the title discussion, they are going to need Wagner to be a key piece.
You are going to have to part with a top-60 talent in most situations, something that might not seem like a savvy buy-low move. However, with the upside to be a top-30 asset at some point in the future, this could be a worthwhile move, especially if you're eye is looking beyond just the next 12 months.
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