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We're down to the final eight and the second round was still able to throw up a surprise to give the quarterfinals a somewhat unusual look. With a place in the World Cup final within touching distance, the stakes are higher than ever.
Morocco stunned former World Champions Spain, knocking them out on penalties. While Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, England, France, Portugal, and Croatia all progressed as expected, albeit some more convincingly than others.
Like we did for the group stage and the second round, we'll be putting a total of 25 units across these fixtures and playing the ones that I believe offer us the best value. Just remember that unless specified, all bets are for 90 minutes and do not include extra time or a penalty shootout. We bagged a profit for our second-round bets, so let's hope we can carry that into the latter stages of the tournament.
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Friday, December 9th, 2022
Croatia vs. Brazil, 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Croatia 0 - 2 Brazil
Croatia needed a penalty shootout to beat Japan after going behind in the game and eventually drawing 1-1. That was just the second goal Croatia has conceded at the World Cup but they've now won just one of their four games (4-1 against Canada). Their equalizer was also their only goal scored other than the four against Canada, so they'll need to improve in an attacking sense to progress further.
Brazil demolished South Korea in their second-round tie, leading 4-0 at halftime before running out 4-1 winners. It could have been a lot more in truth and the Brazilians certainly took their foot off the gas in the second half. After a so-so group stage, Brazil certainly looked like justified favorites to win the World Cup last time out and the return of Neymar certainly made a big difference.
There's no way Croatia will be as defensively naive against Brazil as South Korea was but whether they have enough firepower to create and take chances remains to be seen. I don't see Brazil winning as comfortably as they did last Monday but they definitely look like the team to beat.
Betting picks
Single-game parlay - Brazil over 4.5 corners and Croatia over 2.5 corners (+150 DraftKings) 4 units
Brazil has conceded three or more corners in all four of their games so far while taking at least five in each game. Croatia conceded eight corners against Japan and has taken five corners in three of their four games.
Anytime correct score - Croatia 0 - 2 Brazil (+110 FanDuel) 2 units
It's a scoreline Brazil has experienced twice this tournament and given the two goals they have conceded so far came with their second-string playing a dead rubber and when they led South Korea 4-0, there's every chance if they do concede a goal here, it'll come when they've already scored a couple themselves.
Players to watch
Luka Modrić knows each game could be his last for the national side after announcing he will retire from international soccer after the World Cup. He'll want to do everything he can to ensure Friday isn't his finale and if Croatia stands any chance of causing an upset, his ability to keep possession in the middle of the park and spring counter-attacks will be crucial.
There were doubts that Neymar would be fit before the semifinals but he started against South Korea, scored, and played 80+ minutes to allay any concerns about his fitness. He won't be afforded the amount of space he has in Brazil's second-round tie but Neymar is still the focal point of the Brazil side and can win any game on his day.
Netherlands vs. Argentina, 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Netherlands 1 - 1 Argentina (Netherlands 1 - 2 Argentina after extra time)
The Dutch put in a professional performance in beating USA 3-1 in the second round, something they've done throughout the tournament so far. They've yet to really ignite but play to their strengths and always looked like they had another gear or two to go up if they needed to. Only four teams have scored more than the Netherlands (eight), and of the remaining eight nations, only Morocco has had fewer shots than the Dutch, outlining their efficiency in front of goal.
Argentina had to battle through their second-round tie against Australia. After taking a 2-0 lead, the Australians gave Argentina a fright by halving the deficit and nearly found a late equalizer. The South Americans have looked much better since their shocking opening game loss to Saudi Arabia, and without playing at their best, they've reached the quarterfinals, which would have been a minimum expectation.
Neither side has been at their best but they've both turned things up in games when they need to and done enough to reach this stage. I'm expecting a close game that will be decided by the finest of margins and Argentina looks like the more likely match winners in a close game.
Betting picks
Both teams to score - Yes (+115 Caesars) 4 units
Both sides have scored in each of their four games, with both scoring two or more on three occasions. They both have serious goal threats in attack, and although it's unlikely we see a high-scoring game, I expect each side to find the net.
To score anytime - Lionel Messi (+180 FanDuel) 2 units
If it wasn't for a missed penalty against Poland, Messi would have scored a goal in all of Argentina's games so far and the team continues to give him the ball at every opportunity. It's a tactic that might not keep working but I wouldn't bet against him finding the net yet again on Friday.
Players to watch
Memphis Depay was a surprise omission from the Netherlands' first two starting lineups but has started their last two games and found the net against the USA, sweeping home following a flowing move to give the Dutch the lead. Cody Gakpo leads the side with three goals but Depay could be their biggest threat to putting away a chance.
Rodrigo De Paul might not have the same star power as Messi and others on the team, but he's been integral for Argentina so far. His ability to break up attacks in the middle of the pitch has been on display with a team-leading six interceptions and seven blocks. He also leads the team in passes attempted (396) and only Messi has more shot-creating actions than De Paul (12). He's exactly the kind of player you need to get through the close games.
Today's World Cup Sportsbook Odds - Quarterfinals
- DraftKings Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on DraftKings!
- Croatia/Brazil to draw +400
- France to win +140
- Morocco/Portugal to draw +275
- FanDuel Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on FanDuel!
- Netherlands to win +260
- Argentina to win +120
- Morocco to win +480
- BetMGM Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on BetMGM!
- Netherlands/Argentina to draw +220
- England/France to draw +240
- PointsBet Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on PointsBet!
- Brazil to win -250
- Portugal to win -150
- Caesars Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on Caesars
- Croatia to win +800
- England to win +210
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Saturday, December 10th, 2022
Morocco vs. Portugal, 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Morocco 0 - 1 Portugal
Morocco's fairytale tournament continued on Tuesday when they dumped out Spain on penalties following a 0-0 draw. They've now faced three European sides ranked in FIFA's top-12 (Belgium #2, Spain #7, and Croatia #12), and not only have they yet to lose to any of them, but they've also kept a clean sheet in all three games. The only goal they've conceded was an own goal against Canada and they've kept seven clean sheets in their last eight international games.
Portugal dismantled Switzerland 6-1 in their second-round tie and that came on the back of scoring six goals in their group games. They are level with England for most goals scored at the World Cup but only have one clean sheet to show for it. What was even more remarkable about Portugal's 6-1 victory was it came with captain and star forward Cristiano Ronaldo being dropped to the bench and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scoring a hat-trick in what was his first start for Portugal.
At this point, no one should be writing off Morocco causing another shock. But while Belgium, Spain, and to a lesser extent, Croatia, hadn't looked particularly impressive in their other games, Portugal has. I don't expect Portugal to run riot again and Morocco's organization will keep the game close but Portugal should have enough to find a breakthrough. Morocco has struggled to create many chances and then take the chances that do fall their way.
Betting picks
Corners handicap - Portugal -2.0 (+115 PointsBet) 4 units
Morocco has remarkably only taken three corners throughout the World Cup while Portugal has taken 19 with four or more coming in their last three games. Morocco will continue to defend deep and look to break so Portugal should have no problem covering the spread.
To win to nil - Portugal (+150 DraftKings) 2 units
We've seen Morocco's blueprint and while I see no reason to think they won't make things difficult for Portugal, I've seen enough from Portugal to believe they can breakdown Morocco and find a goal (or two). I don't know if Morocco will be able to react and get back into the game regardless of when Portugal scores.
Most bookings - Portugal (+140 PointsBet) 2 units
Morocco has only been shown three bookings as their style of defending deep doesn't lend itself to picking up bookings as they don't leave themselves vulnerable. They will counter-attack Portugal and the Portuguese have no shortage of experienced players who will break up such threats by any means necessary. Expect a couple of cynical tackles from Portugal leading to bookings.
Players to watch
Achraf Hakimi ties the team lead in shot-creating actions with nine despite being a full-back. He scored the winning penalty in their shootout victory against Spain and plays for Paris Saint-Germain, so he is used to the big occasion and playing with top players. He'll need to be at his defensive best but continue providing an attacking threat. He also leads the team in passes attempted (203) and completed (164) as well as tackles (11) and interceptions (six) as he's been a key player at both ends of the pitch.
It's unlikely Ronaldo starts this game and Ramos' hat trick will certainly put a lot of the focus on him. But it's Bruno Fernandes who will hold the key for Portugal. He picked up his third assist of the tournament against Switzerland to go along with his two goals and there's been a long-standing belief at Manchester United that he performs better when Ronaldo isn't in the side. He'll want to keep proving he is the main man for Portugal and will need to be at his creative best to unpick the stubborn Moroccan defense.
England vs. France, 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: England 2 - 2 France (England to win on penalties)
England has a habit of turning things on when they need to in games. After a 6-2 win against Iran and an insipid goalless draw with the USA, they've now beaten Wales and Senegal 3-0 without playing at their best and doing what they need to. They have scored goals at crucial times and managed the games from that point, so they always appear to have more to give if necessary.
France had a similarly impressive display in their second-round tie, beating Poland 3-1 with the Poles scoring a consolation penalty with the last kick of the game. They comprehensively beat Australia 4-1 in the group stage and beat a solid Denmark team 2-1, with their only blemish coming in their dead rubber against Tunisia (which they lost 1-0).
These are two of the top-three scoring nations still in the tournament (combining for 21 goals) although they rely differently on their route to goal. Eight of France's nine goals have been scored by Olivier Giroud (three) and Kylian Mbappé (five) while England's 12 goals have been scored by a total of eight different players. England looks like a more rounded team but you can't bet against Mbappé being a match-winner, either.
Betting picks
Goal in both halves - Yes (+100 Caesars) 3 units
England has five first-half goals and seven second-half goals while France has three first-half goals and six second-half goals. I expect the game to ebb and flow with both teams having their moments, so a goal in each half will follow that pattern.
Total cards - Under 3.5 (+106 FanDuel) 2 units
England is the only nation yet to get shown a card at the World Cup while France has only been shown two. I believe the way the game will go leads to a couple of bookings but taking plus odds for fewer cards in the game than both teams have combined in eight games is too attractive to turn down.
Players to watch
Kyle Walker is set to face off against Mbappé, whether as a right back in a back-four or on the right-hand side of a back three. His pace could be integral to stopping Mbappé, and if he is able to get forward and support attacks, Mbappé isn't someone who will look to track back too often, so there's a real possibility Walker can have a huge impact at both ends of the pitch.
We all know about Mbappé at this point and Giroud is having a great tournament. But Ousmane Dembélé is the guy that could be a difference-maker for France. He has two assists so far, and if England is able to shut down Mbappé, they will be confident in keeping Giroud quiet, leaving Dembélé as the one who might be able to benefit from England defenders' attention being elsewhere.
Good luck with those World Cup bets and remember to bet responsibly!
