RADIO
Brandon Murchison evaluates the current dynasty football league trade market for NFL players with an in-depth look at the NFC West at which players are risers or fallers.
The NFC West recently has become one of the toughest divisions in all of the NFL. The influx of new talent into this division has meshed well on both sides of the ball. The teams in the West have some of the best offenses in the league, which means it is stocked full of ascending talent that dynasty managers will be pleased with for years to come. But will the competitive nature of this division eventually start to wane on the talent? That remains to be seen.
No matter the position, this division sports young talent that catches the eye of dynasty owners. The quarterbacks all have the talent and capability to be steady QB1 producers. Russell Wilson is a perennial QB1, while Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo have each some promise themselves. But it is the emergence of Kyler Murray that is being watched by the fantasy community as the Cardinals offense is on the verge of something special. There is running back talent in this division as well, but as is the case in the NFL, the position is very combustible and could change at the drop of a hat. But it could be the receivers in the NFC West that will carry this division. All-world talents like DeAndre Hopkins and D.K. Metcalf look to carry this division for years to come. While others like Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp are players you can build your receiving roster around as well.
Let's jump into the NFC West and see just where the dynasty market lies on some of the players. As you prepare for upcoming drafts or potential trades, having that insight leaves you better prepared.
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San Francisco 49ers
Coming off of a disappointing loss in the Super Bowl, the 49ers will be bringing back virtually everyone into the 2020 season. A team that was second in the NFL in scoring (479) should once again be one of the more trustworthy offenses in the league. The 49ers were one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league in 2019 (51% run rate, 2nd) which should remain the same in 2020. Although the passing game for this team won't carry them, they were in the top half of the league in both passing yardage and scoring last year.
TRENDING UP
Brandon Aiyuk- With the injury to Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk is a player that was immediately shooting up draft boards, whether in rookie or re-draft. He is an explosive receiver that will give the 49ers passing attack a different kind of weapon. He is fast off the line of scrimmage and gets down the field in a flash. His 14 broken tackles in 2019 indicate a player that will be tough to bring down in the open field. Look for the 49ers to get the ball into his hands on screens to use his athleticism for chunk plays. There will be a learning curve here for Aiyuk as he adjusts to more physical corners in the NFL and he must improve his contested-catch ability. But overall, Aiyuk is a receiver with a bright future in dynasty formats that will provide a safe WR3 floor, but the upside of a WR2.
Jalen Hurd- A player that I will continue to bang the drum for. Hurd, a converted college RB, showed early on in 49ers camp last season that he has intriguing upside. While everyone has been giving all the attention to Aiyuk on this depth chart after the injury to Samuel, Hurd is a name to watch once the players hit the field. He has positional flexibility that can allow the team to line him up all over the field. The 49ers used Samuel quite a bit on running plays, especially in the red-zone (two touchdowns on three carries). Those plays could see Hurd being utilized now with Samuel on the shelf.
I expect to see Hurd play out of the slot and sharing snaps with Trent Taylor. Will he be a factor week-in and week-out? Probably not. But I like his chances of improving his role on this offense moving forward. From a dynasty perspective, Hurd is a prime candidate to be stashed on your roster in hopes that he eventually breaks through. He can likely be had for a very slim price at the moment and is worth acquiring.
TRENDING DOWN
Raheem Mostert- The guy that carried this team towards the Super Bowl is trending down? Why yes, from a fantasy perspective, Mostert is seeing his value dip over the last month. Early in the offseason, Mostert was highly overrated and it showed in early drafts. But now owners have started to settle in and look into this 49ers backfield. Even as he was playing great down the stretch in 2019, he was still out-snapped on the season by Tevin Coleman (392 to 370). Add in the fact that Kyle Shanahan historically likes to rotate his running backs. Mostert's snap share of 36.4% would have to vastly improve for him to exceed the early expectations that fantasy owners had for him.
But the truth is, he will be involved in some sort of a committee backfield which will hurt the overall value. Add in his trade demand this offseason and you have a player that may be viewed as expendable after the 2020 season. From a dynasty perspective, now is the time to sell Mostert if you have not already. There may be weeks where he flashes during the season, but a smart owner will pounce on the expectations he has now.
Seattle Seahawks
It was a different year, but the same story for the Seahawks as the train just seems to be moving along for this team. They were top-10 in both scoring and rushing and not far behind in passing totals (14th in yardage). Russell Wilson continues to be an upper-echelon QB in terms of fantasy production. Now that he has a true double threat with his receivers (Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf), it's hard to imagine that his ceiling could be higher.
In the backfield, Chris Carson, fumbling issues aside, still controls a very run-heavy offense (48.2% run rate) but has competition behind him with the signing of Carlos Hyde. Although this roster is very top-heavy in terms of talent, the Seahawks have several players that will be key contributors in fantasy in 2020 and beyond.
TRENDING UP
D.K. Metcalf- The widely-discussed 2019 draft pick, Metcalf turned in a very solid rookie campaign (58 receptions for 900 yards and seven TDs). Finishing as WR29 on the year, Metcalf was a steady producer as a fantasy WR3. He provided only three top-24 during his rookie season, but that is expected to at least double in 2020. He and Tyler Lockett nearly had identical targets (100 to Lockett's 110) last season, but don't be shocked to see Metcalf take over as the team's WR1 as early as this season.
As he continues to smooth out to the edges of his game, Metcalf could become one of the premier red-zone threats in the NFL. He is already scaling the rankings in redraft leagues for 2020 but in dynasty formats, Metcalf will remain a hot commodity for owners for several years.
Colby Parkinson- Yes, the Seahawks do have a very crowded depth chart when it comes to the tight end position. But Parkinson is in a perfect position to sit under the learning tree that is Greg Olsen. Parkinson progressed nicely during his college career as he continued to take on more of a workload. The 2020 season should be viewed as a red-shirt season for him, but as early as 2021, Parkinson could become a name to watch in fantasy.
With Russell Wilson's propensity to target the position, he could prove to have TE2 value early on with upside. From a dynasty perspective, Parkinson is no more than a lottery ticket at the moment that you can get onto your roster and see how his progression on the depth chart works out. If he fails to live up, he is an asset that you have little equity in and can drop.
TRENDING DOWN
Chris Carson- Carson has burst onto the scene over the last two seasons, becoming a borderline RB1 in each of the last two years. Sporting five top-12 weeks in each of the last two seasons, much of the same could be expected for the 2020 season. But some issues are surrounding Carson if you look deeper into the numbers. His nine rushes from inside the five yard-line were far less than the other top backs in the league. Holding onto the football has become an albatross for Carson as well with his seven fumbles pacing all RBs in the NFL. The fumbling issues could cost him time on the field to the steady Carlos Hyde in 2020.
Beyond that, Carson will be a free agent in 2021 and not expected to be back with the team. So if you are a dynasty owner, with Carson on your roster, you may want to strike while the iron is hot and float him to a team in your league with RB issues.
Los Angeles Rams
Coming off the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots in 2018, the Rams seemed to lose a little steam to their offense in 2019. Scoring was down from 30.8 PPG to 24.6 a season ago. Some of that could be contributed to a rough season from Jared Goff. The attempts were up (626) but the passing scores (22) and interceptions (16) were both up which halted this offense on many occasions. Many are expecting a more simplified offense from the Rams in 2020 which could improve Goff's efficiency as he looks to get back to the QB1 level in fantasy. Meanwhile, the dynasty appeal on this team resides around what rookie RB Cam Akers will be able to do taking over for the departed Todd Gurley. Akers should take hold of this running game early on and has RB2 upside as soon as this upcoming season.
TRENDING UP
Tyler Higbee- There may not have been a hotter player down the stretch in 2019 than Higbee. Once the Rams began running more of a 12 personnel, Higbee became a focal point of the passing attack and it showed with TE1 performances in each of the last five games. That frenetic finish propelled Higbee to a TE8 ranking after the sluggish start to the season. He is a highly debated player as the 2020 season draws near. Many are expecting some regression with Higbee as a healthy Gerald Everett is back in the lineup. But with the Rams running that 12 personnel, the snap share should not differ, meaning the opportunities should be there yet again. The smart dynasty owner would be wise to float his name out to see what high a price that Higbee may desire in possible trades.
TRENDING DOWN
Darrell Henderson- What a difference a year makes for Henderson. The trendy sleeper pick for many entering the 2019 season, Henderson had a tough time adjusting to the Rams running scheme and showed to be a liability in pass protection. All this led to just 99 snaps total on the season. This gave the Rams reason to look into their depth chart and they decided to draft Cam Akers. The acquisition of Akers puts a major dent in the dynasty value of Henderson for the owners that have held onto him. He is now staring at a complementary role at best and unless he improves as a pass blocker, his appeal as a PPR asset may be minimal as well. The best bet for dynasty owners at the moment is to try and sway the Akers owner into trading for Henderson for handcuff purposes.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had a very up and down year in the first year under Kliff Kingsbury, but as the 2020 season draws near they are drawing loads of hype from the fantasy community. The big-name players of this offense are all coming off the board rather early (Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, and DeAndre Hopkins) and will be very popular options in redraft leagues for 2020. But the appeal of this offense is the pace in which they play. Near the top of the league in seconds per snap (24.5), the Cardinals have to improve upon their production as they keep up this pace. If the team can leap in the second year in Kingsbury's system, the sky may be the limit for the dynasty values of the young players on this roster.
TRENDING UP
Christian Kirk- Sure, everyone is talking about the trade for DeAndre Hopkins and his inclusion on this offense. But from a production standpoint, this may help Kirk as it lessens the load that he has on his shoulders. No longer will he see an opposing team's top cornerback and will see plenty of open space as coverage is drawn more to Hopkins. I expect to see him improve upon the WR38 finish from 2019 and settle in more as a consistent WR3 moving forward. As the Cardinals offense rounds into shape over the next couple of seasons, Kirk has the upside to be an intriguing option as a low-end WR2 in PPR formats.
Looking at Kirk from a dynasty standpoint, he should settle in well into your starting lineups most weeks as the opportunities will be there. But if you were to test the trade market for him, it is best to wait during the season for a week in which he pops a big number. Then float him out there to curious owners.
TRENDING DOWN
Kenyan Drake- Yes, Drake was one of the hottest players in fantasy during the playoffs in 2019. But we can't ignore the fact of what he has done throughout his career. His 220 touches last season were a career-high and there is a chance that he can not withstand a bell-cow workload. If the Cardinals were to overuse him, injuries begin to come into the conversation. Although the 2020 season could be another highly productive one for Drake in this Cardinals offense, the volatility of the position from an NFL standpoint could catch up to him sooner rather than later.
Simply put, expecting the 30 FP per game that he provided over the last three games could use to hurt feelings for fantasy owners. But when it comes to dynasty formats, the best thing to do is sell a player at his highest point and that point may never be higher for Drake than it is now. The value you can bring back in a trade for an expected RB1 always feels like a steal for plenty of fantasy owners.
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