RADIO
Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers used to be one of the more reliable sources for fantasy points. Players have come and gone in San Diego, with really only Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates remaining. Even with a dip in production across the board, this is a team that has managed to stay afloat with an above average offense. Sure it could be better but it could also be infinitely worse.
Offseson Acquisitions: RB Melvin Gordon, WR Stevie Johnson
No Longer on the Roster: RB Ryan Mathews, RB Ronnie Brown, WR Eddie Royal
Quarterback
Quarterback Philip Rivers is coming off of another solid year in which he flirted with fantasy starter status. His 4,286 passing yards and 31 touchdowns were enough to just barely slot him 12th among fantasy quarterbacks. That’s pretty much where Rivers is at this point in his career; he’s a borderline fantasy starter but still remains an option in a deep league. He had been regarded as one of the more consistent options in fantasy prior to his disappointing 2012 season. There’s an argument to be made that wide receiver Keenan Allen helped bring Rivers back to form but we’ll get to why that’s sort of a crutch argument in a bit.
Rivers has consistently been ranked just outside the top 12 at quarterback, just behind the likes of Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill. Manning and Tannehill have far surpassed Rivers in terms of upside which is exactly what you want when you’re waiting on quarterback. That being said, Rivers is the perfect “safe” option to pair with someone like Manning or Tannehill in the event your primary starter doesn’t pan out. No longer a superstar, Rivers is simply a less attractive name than some of the other quarterbacks ahead of him.
Wide Receivers
Comparing Keenan Allen’s rookie numbers to that of his sophomore season can be a bit disheartening. Allen finished 2013 with 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns via 71 receptions and 105 targets. He followed that up with a disappointing 2014 at 783 yards and four touchdowns on 77 receptions and 121 targets. The reception and target totals are key indicators that Allen’s numbers dipped due to production rather than usage. They’re almost identical and he actually had more targets in 2014 anyway. So Rivers’ return to glory due to Allen’s emergence is really only half true. It might have helped in 2013, but Allen was just another random Chargers receiver last season. In fact, that’s kind of been the way the Chargers offense has been for the last several years. They accumulate a bunch of random, average to above average receivers and spread the ball around accordingly. Last year alone the team had four players with at least 700 receiving yards with Malcom Floyd leading the pack at 856. Even with the most receiving yards among Chargers, Floyd still wasn’t even a top-20 fantasy wide receiver. If anything, the name that would have garnered the most fantasy attention was tight end Antonio Gates prior to his suspension. You can bump up Allen slightly in a PPR league but he remains a flex play with minimal upside.
The only name I would regard as standing out from the rest is the newly acquired Steve Johnson. Johnson was once a reliable WR2 in Buffalo but floundered during his time as a member of the San Francisco 49ers. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Johnson put up consistent fantasy production yet even still, Philip Rivers is the best quarterback he’s played with in ages. He’s another one of those players that you can’t justify drafting in a standard sized league but absolutely deserves your attention once the season starts.
Running Backs
If there is one rookie with a clear path to immediate fantasy success it’s running back Melvin Gordon out of the University of Wisconsin. With Ryan Mathews now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, the former Badger should step right into starting. The likes of Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead, and Donald Brown aren’t players who can handle a full workload. Gordon is going to get the majority of the carries and should be regarded as the most “can’t miss” rookie in this year’s class. This isn’t a Bishop Sankey situation either. Sankey didn’t have nearly as much hype coming out of college as Gordon and the two are in entirely different leagues as far as talent is concerned. As evidenced by them trotting out Shonn Greene, the Titans didn’t really view Sankey as an immediate feature back the way San Diego sees Gordon. In fact, the Chargers actually traded up to ensure they could select Gordon at 15 overall. Every indication from the draft until now has been that Gordon should be a big component of this offense right away.
The rankings on Gordon are fair when you consider both the opportunity ahead of him and the risk attached when drafting a rookie running back. He’s often slotted toward the bottom half of the top-20 at the position. He should turn out to be a dependable RB2 instantly.
Danny Woodhead has a shot at attaining flex play status in a PPR league despite missing all but three games in 2014. Woodhead was a beast as a pass-catching running back in 2013, reeling in 76 receptions for 605 yards. Even after missing a significant amount of time last year, the Chargers won’t simply toss Woodhead aside. He’s proven he can be a major factor in this offense even if he’s limited to being a pass-catching back. There’s been some reports that suggest Melvin Gordon is a better pass catcher than expected but that’s more of a positive for Gordon than it is a negative for Woodhead. Woodhead likely won’t be very fantasy relevant in a standard league since he won’t see many carries but he does possess a significant amount of upside in PPR formats.
Tight Ends
The suspension of tight end Antonio Gates has two immediate consequences. The first is rather straightforward in that it pretty much eliminates any draft value Gates possessed prior to the ban. If you were considering Gates as a fantasy starter, it’s highly likely you were waiting on tight end as it is. Why bother wasting a roster spot on a tight end who won’t be available for four games of the season? You’d just have to hold onto two of them until he comes back and there isn’t enough separation between TEs 8-12 as it is.
The other consequence of this suspension is that it finally gives us a chance to see what Ladarius Green can do without Gates on the field. Green had been a borderline sleeper for the past two seasons when many had begun counting Gates out early. His numbers to this point have been limited since he’s the team’s second tight end but he’ll have the first four games to show us what he can do. I’m not quite ready to thrust Green into top-12 status but there’s a scenario in which I can see myself owning him. If I’m the last guy to draft a tight end and I don’t have any other necessary roster spots to fill (handcuffs, backing up the suspended Brady or Le’Veon Bell, etc.) I would consider using two picks on tight ends. As an example, Jordan Cameron is often injured and just moved to a new team. Why not provide yourself with some insurance by adding Ladarius Green in the hopes that he overtakes Gates as the starter while Gates is suspended? It’s a strategy that could turn out to be beneficial as long as you play your cards right. Don’t reach for Green, nor should you expect to ride with him for the entirety of the season but he’s certainly worth a look provided the right roster makeup.
Rookies
With the Chargers having the fewest draft selections at five, their only pick on offense was running back Melvin Gordon. Nothing else to see here as far as rookies go.
Summary
As you can probably tell, this is a San Diego offense that isn’t exactly spectacular but has a lot of names to keep track of. Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are right at the cutoff as far as starters are concerned with Melvin Gordon possessing the clearest path to relevance. The suspension of Antonio Gates could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ladarius Green if he’s able to produce within that four game stretch. This is a Chargers team that will likely remain middle of the pack both in real-life football and in fantasy.
