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Heading into the season, Fantasy Football Expert Frankie Soler will take an early look into each NFL team’s fantasy potential in 2015, keying into some depth chart changes and battles for starting jobs. In our third part of the series we look at the Dallas Cowboys. All previous Team Previews can be found here.
The Cincinnati Bengals had a quiet offseason. The team added some depth at wide receiver by bringing in former Oakland Raider Denarius Moore while also parting ways with former first round tight end Jermaine Gresham. While neither move is particularly eye-catching, the bigger story in Cincinnati is what to make of the state of the backfield with both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard expected to share the load.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Denarius Moore
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No Longer on the Roster: TE Jermaine Gresham
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Quarterback
Andy Dalton finished the 2014 season with 3,398 yards and 19 touchdowns on 481 attempts. Compare those numbers to his 2013 campaign and you’ll notice Dalton dropped considerably. 2013 saw Dalton finish with 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns on 586 attempts. Basically, 2013 was a career year for Dalton while 2014 is a more accurate representation of what we’ve come to expect out of him. The most interesting number is his passing attempts. That 481 number from last year is Dalton’s lowest total to date and a lot of that has to do with Giovani Bernard and the emergence of Jeremy Hill. With a running game that strong, it’s best not to rely too heavily on a quarterback like Dalton. If you’re looking for one last stat to reinforce the notion that the Bengals are far from a pass happy offense, consider the fact that they ranked just 25th in passing attempts as a team last season. Dalton was somewhat of a sleeper last year where as this year he’s no more than a bye-week fill-in or a low-end QB2 in a two- quarterback league.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Green has been a reliable fantasy wide receiver ever since he debuted in the league back in 2011. Green is coming off of a bit of a down year, having missed three games and finishing with just six touchdowns. It’s no coincidence that Green’s best year also happened to be quarterback Andy Dalton’s best year, 2013. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that their production is directly intertwined as Green is by far the more talented player but there is some obvious correlation. Green is often ranked as a mid-second rounder and rightfully so.
That being said, I usually use strength of quarterback as a tiebreaker when it comes to determining my WR1. I’d much rather take Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, both of whom have the benefit of playing with Aaron Rodgers as opposed to Andy Dalton. Although I expect Green to bounce back somewhat, there’s always the fear that Andy Dalton will have one his terrible Andy Dalton games and never look back. That would just crush Green’s fantasy value. He’s solid, no doubt, but carries slightly more risk than the other receivers being selected around him. The addition of Denarius Moore shouldn’t be looked at as nothing more than a move for depth. We’ve seen this offense support two wide receivers in limited stints but never over the course of a full season.
It’ll be interesting to see who emerges as the true number two receiver opposite A.J. Green between Moore, Marvin Jones, and Mohamed Sanu. My money is on Sanu based on past performance but I wouldn’t bother rostering any of these guys until they show me something substantial over the course of several games.
Running Backs
Heading into last season, there was plenty of chatter regarding the possibility of Jeremy Hill eating into Giovani Bernard’s workload. That proved to be the case in time as Hill finished with 222 rushing attempts compared to Bernard’s 168. Even if you were to consider the fact that Bernard missed three games, the yardage totals are massively different with just 680 for Bernard to Hill’s 1,124. The touchdowns favored Hill as well with nine opposite Bernard’s five.
The point here is clear; Jeremy Hill is the more productive and trusted back in Cincinnati. The question then becomes, how do the Bengals actually divide the workload? I would expect the carries to be split similar to the way they were last year with a slight increase for Jeremy Hill, who didn’t start getting the main bulk until Week 9 when he racked up 24 carries. Entering 2015, Hill to be the primary back from day one. Given how talented both of these guys are and the team’s reluctance to lean on Andy Dalton, I actually expect Giovani Bernard to be a solid flex play in all formats this season.
Plenty of teams have managed to utilize two running backs, netting us two useful fantasy rushers. We’ve seen it in Buffalo when both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are healthy. We’ve seen it in New Orleans with a variety of running backs like Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush. The Bengals have the talent to produce in the backfield with both Hill and Bernard. Hill ranks as a low-end RB1 with decent upside where as Bernard is a flex play with RB2 upside. That’s a legit combination and more than most teams can say about their own running game.
Rookies and Tight Ends
Tyler Eifert will be the starting tight end again this year, taking full time duties from the massively disappointing Jermaine Gresham. Before being injured last year, Eifert was showing his dominance on the field (even if it didn't appear in the box score) as an athletic, skilled tight end. After losing all of last year's playing time due to an injury suffered early in the season, Eifert will be reclaiming his spot as the starting tight end with only two rookies (Tyler Croft and CJ Uzomah) behind him. There's a good chance that Eifert produces some strong fantasy numbers, but health's going to be a strong factor in that.
I expect to see more of the same in Cincinnati, as the Bengals should lean heavily on running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. A.J. Green gives them a potent threat in the passing game and is locked in as a WR1 barring a collapse from Andy Dalton. While that last bit about Dalton is certainly possible, this offense isn’t one I’d be concerned about.
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