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Frank reviews 10 hitter fantasy baseball breakout candidates and post-hype sleepers for 2025. His favorite hitter values, former top prospects with big upside.
It's been a treat to watch several top prospects break out immediately upon arriving in the big leagues in recent years. Such studs like Julio Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll have made a major impact right away.
But for every Julio and Carroll, there are dozens of similarly touted prospects who took some time before reaching their potential in the majors. Just look at Manny Machado, who hit only 14 homers in 710 plate appearances in his first full season.
We often get a discount in fantasy baseball on young hitters who struggle in their first year or two in the league. These are known as post-hype hitters since the shine has worn off what was once an exciting prospect. In this article, I'll dive into some of my favorite former top prospects who have become a value in drafts. The criteria: must be a former top prospect who is still 27 years old or younger, hasn't broken out yet, and is available outside the top 250 picks.
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Colt Keith, 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers
Colt Keith slashed .306/.380/.552 with 27 home runs in 577 plate appearances in the minor leagues back in 2023. It's no surprise that fantasy baseball fans were excited to see the power that Keith could bring to the table at second base. But it was a disappointing rookie season where Keith put up a 97 wRC+ with only 13 home runs in 556 plate appearances.
Still only 23 years old, the Tigers have moved Keith to first base, where perhaps he can tap into more of his power since he'll be playing a less taxing defensive position. It's nice to be able to deploy the Tigers' former stud prospect at both corner and middle infield spots, making him a desirable post-hype hitter to target.
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Back in 2021, Jordan Walker turned heads with a 151 wRC+ in his time at Single-A at just 19 years old. We saw the Cardinals' third baseman-turned-outfielder hold his own in the big leagues in 2023, posting a respectable 116 wRC+ in 465 plate appearances. But the wheels fell off last year with a 72 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances.
We've now seen Walker move up and down from majors to minors while hitting rock bottom last season, so the price has come down considerably. This may be an organizational issue, as a once proud Cardinals franchise has struggled to develop its young talent while making questionable decisions late. But Walker is still only 22, so keep an eye on him this year. The concern is that he's dealing with a knee issue, but it's unlikely that he'll miss too much time.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Jo Adell continues to make, what Ron Washington termed, adjustments at the plate.
Pre-July 30: high leg kick
Post-July 30: toe tap
Since Friday: slight leg lift/step. pic.twitter.com/Y7vQGUjgWX— BTH (@BeyondTheHalo) March 2, 2025
It feels like Jo Adell has been around forever because he debuted in the big leagues in 2020 during his age-21 season. We've seen Adell fail to meet expectations several times since then, but the power-speed profile is so fantasy-friendly that it's hard to quit such a dynamic talent. We saw Adell put up 20 HR and 15 SB in only 451 PA last season.
While strikeouts continue to be a problem (27.9 K%), and it's unlikely that he'll ever hit for a good batting average (.207 BA), this is a hitter with 98th-percentile bat speed, per Baseball Savant. We could see a 30-30 season, albeit with a low BA, if things break right for Adell. That kind of category juice can't be ignored at Adell's current price.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Andrew Vaughn came to MLB as a polished hitter with 30 home run upside and strong plate discipline. But the best we've gotten was 21 HR in 2023 and a 113 wRC+ in 2022. That type of middling power for a first baseman coupled with his league-worst team context with the White Sox has pushed fantasy baseball players away from Vaughn.
On the bright side, this is still a young hitter entering his age-26 season with a secure role that should result in plenty of playing time (620+ plate appearances). Vaughn has been able to keep strikeouts in check (21.3 K% in 2024), so perhaps with enough volume, he can provide you with 25 homers and a .260+ batting average.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Aranda returned to the Rays in Sept and hit 5 HR in his final 62 PA while slashing .273/.339/.582.
While a small sample, Aranda has a strong track record of pulling fly balls and had an avg EV on pulled FBs of 99.6 mph last season. He could feast in Steinbrenner Field. https://t.co/jTJRakLIXb pic.twitter.com/hbktDeB1ji— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) February 3, 2025
Jonathan Aranda has nothing left to prove in the minors. The 26-year-old first baseman put up a 165 wRC+ in 434 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2023. While 2024 wasn't as exciting (111 wRC+ at Triple-A), it's time for the Rays to give Aranda a chance, as it's hard to tell what they have in him without everyday plate appearances.
We could see Aranda at least get strong-side platoon looks against righties. If you're in a deep league, that makes him look like a desirable streamer when he gets a string of righties (especially in a hitter's park). Speaking of hitter-friendly environments, the Rays' hitters get a park upgrade at Steinbrenner Field, which is good news for Aranda.
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
Bo Naylor struggled to the tune of a 74 wRC+ in 389 plate appearances last season. But let's not forget that this is a catcher who went 20-20 in 510 plate appearances across Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. There's power in this bat and the ability to chip in some speed, which is rare for a catcher.
On the other hand, if Naylor doesn't show improvement at the plate, there's the risk that he could start to lose some playing time, as a 74 wRC+ simply isn't going to cut it. I'd only recommend taking a shot on Naylor in two-catcher leagues where you try to swing for the fences on your second catcher.
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Heston Kjerstad is similar to Jonathan Aranda in that there's nothing left for him to prove in the minors. The Orioles' slugger hit 16 homers with a 153 wRC+ in 280 plate appearances in the minors last year. It's clear that Baltimore just needs to give him 500+ plate appearances to see what he can do.
With new signee Tyler O'Neill already banged up and Cedric Mullins continuing to struggle against lefties, the O's could use a slugger like Kjerstad in the lineup. If not, there's no excuse to hoard a talented hitter like this. Baltimore should try to dangle Kjerstad as trade bait if they can't find playing time for him.
Nolan Gorman, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Nolan Gorman has a major strikeout problem, putting up a 37.8 K% last season. But this is still a hitter entering his age-24 season, boasting the ability to absolutely crush the baseball, as highlighted by his 98th-percentile barrel rate. The Cardinals are rebuilding now, so perhaps Gorman can find his way into more playing time.
It would help if St. Louis found a landing spot for Nolan Arenado, as they've been trying to trade the veteran third baseman for the entire offseason. It feels like it's only a matter of time before that happens, which would open up third-base at-bats for Gorman. We could see Gorman emerge as a Joc Pederson-type of platoon bat, making him useful in some formats.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Coby Mayo looked overmatched in his brief stint in the big leagues last year, posting a 47.8 K% and -6 wRC+ in 46 plate appearances. I wouldn't count him out yet, as this is still a 23-year-old hitter who hit 25 homers in 406 plate appearances across all minor league levels in 2024.
The problem is that there's a logjam in Baltimore, with Jordan Westburg penciled in at third base. Perhaps if the O's traded Ryan Mountcastle or Ryan O'Hearn, we would see Mayo get a chance at 1B/DH. Until then, this looks like a prospect stash in deep draft and hold leagues. Keep an eye out in more conventional formats because Mayo could be a top pickup later in the year.
Curtis Mead, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Curtis Mead is unbelievably locked in at the moment 🎯
He is 14-for-18 so far in #SpringTraining after going 4-for-4 today! pic.twitter.com/hWLble6YHx
— MLB (@MLB) March 6, 2025
Curtis Mead was once considered one of the Rays' top prospects. We saw him put up 13 HR and 11 SB in 410 plate appearances in the minors last year. The issue has been that Tampa hasn't had room for him, but there's an opportunity at 2B (Brandon Lowe is hurt often), LF (Christopher Morel has too much swing-and-miss), and DH (Jonathan Aranda is still unproven).
The 24-year-old infielder has been tearing it up this spring. I'm taking that with a grain of salt, but it could help Mead force his way into more at-bats, especially in the early stages of the season. Like Aranda and other Rays' hitters, Mead benefits from the change in the ballpark this year.
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