WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 11 (2024)

November 17, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 11 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 11 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows the Atlanta to Green Bay offenses.

The visual below shows Houston to New England.

Finally, the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders can be seen below.

Week 11 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.

Week 11 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Tank Dell vs. Caelen Carson

Without Nico Collins in Weeks 6-10, Tank Dell averaged 11.8 PPR/G, with Stefon Diggs playing in two games and scoring 13.2. Dell led the Texans with a 23.8 percent target share and 24.8 percent air yards share in Weeks 6-10. However, Dell averaged a lowly 7.4 PPR/G, supported by the weak target share (11.5 percent) and air yards share (15.9 percent), with Collins and Diggs healthy.

The visual below shows the game splits for Dell with and without Collins healthy in 2024.

Collins should return in Week 11 against the Cowboys, raising some concern about Dell's opportunity and productivity. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers out wide while running the fifth-highest rate of single high safety looks.

The visual below shows the Texans' receiving leaders against single high safety coverages in Weeks 1-10.

Dell ranks fourth on the team in targets per route run (22 percent) and second in yards per route (1.98) behind Collins when facing single high safeties. For context, Dell garners fewer opportunities and lacks the yardage. That's evident in Dell having a 17 percent target rate and 0.74 yards per route run against two-high safeties.

The Cowboys bring pressure at the third-highest rate (39 percent) behind the Browns (44.9 percent) and Jets (41.6 percent). C.J. Stroud ranks 32nd in completions over expected (-11 percent), 32nd in first-read pass attempts (29.7 percent), and 19th in pressure-to-sack rate (21.5 percent) against pressure.

Collins should take the pressure off Stroud and Dell, giving their outside receivers opportunities to smash against their outside cornerbacks. The top receiver to face the Cowboys averaged 6.4 targets, four receptions, 74 receiving yards, and 14.3 PPR/G over the past five games.

Opposing passing offenses have been shredding the Cowboys' pass defense. That's evident in the Cowboys allowing the second-highest yards per route run (7.7), fourth-highest percentage of wide-open plays, and the third-highest EPA/target. Don't be surprised if Dell makes splash plays in Week 11 against the Cowboys.

George Pickens vs. Brandon Stephens

The Steelers against the Ravens should be one of the best games. This game has the second or third-highest over/under total of Week 11, and the Ravens allow the most fantasy points to receivers out wide. It's partly due to Ja'Marr Chase shredding them, though the Ravens allow four more points than the Buccaneers secondary (29.3 PPR/G) to receivers lined up out wide.

Pickens ranks 13th in expected fantasy points per game, accounting for a player's usage and role. He has been underperforming his expected fantasy numbers by over three points, with 11.7 PPR/G. Sign us up for a borderline WR1 facing one of the juiciest fantasy matchups for opposing receivers.

The visual below shows the wide receiver leaders sorted by expected fantasy points per game.

Brandon Stephens allows the 19th-most yards per route, with the 30th-most fantasy points per route run. The Ravens use two-high safeties 47 percent of the time (No. 10) yet allow the most fantasy points per dropback when using this coverage.

Pickens garners a 20 percent target rate with 2.08 yards per route and 0.49 expected fantasy points per route run compared to his actual 0.32 PPR per route against two high safety looks. Meanwhile, Pickens rocks a 32 percent target rate, 3.16 yards per route, and an even 0.60 expected and actual fantasy points per route run when facing single-high safety coverage.

The Ravens mix their pass coverage but use Cover 3 at the 14th-highest rate (31.1 percent). Cover 3 uses single high safety looks, and Pickens unsurprisingly crushes, evidenced by a 30 percent target rate and 3.66 yards per route run. Pickens' yards per route run against Cover 3 ranks him ninth among pass catchers with 10 or more targets.

It should be a spike week performance for Pickens in Week 11, with 20+ fantasy points against the Ravens.

Cedric Tillman vs. Shemar Jean-Charles

Since Week 7, when Cedric Tillman was unlocked, he averaged the third-most expected fantasy points at 19.5 behind CeeDee Lamb and Chase. Tillman has been efficient by producing over 2.5 fantasy points above expectation. Talented players can produce efficiently, though we love the WR1-type usage for Tillman.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by expected fantasy points in Weeks 7-10.

Tillman faces a Saints' pass defense that probably became weaker after losing Marshon Lattimore. Though the Saints have been more vulnerable against slot receivers, Tillman projects to face Shemar Jean-Charles, who allows the third-most fantasy points per route and the second-highest yards per route run.

The Saints have been running man coverage at the 10th-highest rate at 32 percent. However, we'll note they lowered their man coverage to 24.4 percent in Week 10 against the Falcons without the former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as head coach.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders against man coverage, including targets per route run and yards per route.

Tillman rocks a 24 percent targets per route rate and 2.42 yards per route against man coverage. That's much better than his numbers versus zone coverage, evidenced by a lowly 16 percent target rate and 0.98 yards per route run.

When we look deeper, the Saints use Cover 1 at the ninth-highest rate (27.6 percent) and Cover 2 third-most (24 percent). Tillman has been decent against Cover 1, averaging a 23 percent target rate and 2.13 yards per route. Unfortunately, Tillman hasn't been as productive versus Cover 2, evidenced by his 13 percent target rate and 1.06 yards per route.

Tillman has been better when we filter by Weeks 7-10 instead of the season-long numbers against Cover 1 and 2, with a 28 percent target rate and 2.82 yards per route. However, it's worth noting the 37 percent targets per route rate and 4.05 yards per route run versus Cover 1 in Weeks 7-10 have boosted the combined coverage (Cover 1 and 2) results.

He can win and produce against man coverage. If the Saints' defensive data in Week 10 with more zone and Cover 2 continues, it might hinder Tillman's upside. However, Tillman's usage before their bye week suggests he should be viewed as a must-start player with WR1-type usage.

Week 11 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jordan Addison vs. Darrell Baker Jr.

Since Week 8, including two weeks with T.J. Hockenson healthy, Jordan Addison has a lowly 12.2 percent target share and 17.2 percent air yards share. That translates to WR4-type usage, averaging 8.7 expected fantasy points per game. Unsurprisingly, Addison ranks third on the Vikings in expected fantasy points behind Hockenson (11.9) and Justin Jefferson (17.4).

The table below shows the Vikings' pass catchers in Weeks 8-10.

In neutral game scripts, the Vikings rank middle of the pack with a 54 percent pass rate (No. 17) while running the fifth-slowest pace of play, with 30.2 seconds per snap. That suggests they prefer having a more balanced offense while their passing game runs through Jefferson.

The Titans run the 10th-most zone coverage (72.7 percent) with the ninth-highest rate of two high safety looks. Addison struggles against zone coverage, with a 16 percent target rate and 1.66 yards per route run. Unfortunately, his numbers have been similar versus man coverage, evidenced by an 18 percent target rate and 1.52 yards per route.

When teams like the Titans run a high rate of zone coverage with two high safeties, the goal is to limit explosive plays. Theoretically, opposing offenses should take advantage of the short to the middle area of the field and the running game.

That's evident in some of the highest target earners against two high safety looks involving players with lower average target depths, including Josh Downs (5.6 aDOT), Tanner Hudson (4.6 aDOT), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.7 aDOT), and Nick Vannett (4.0 aDOT).

The visual below shows the receiving leaders against zone coverage in Weeks 1-10.

Interestingly, the Vikings continue to use Addison in a downfield role given his 15.7 aDOT, 15 percent target rate, and 1.65 yards per route run against two high safeties. He ranks fourth in target rate and third on yards per route among Vikings' pass catchers with five or more targets against two high safety coverages.

Furthermore, Addison faces Darrell Baker Jr., allowing the lowest yards per route and seventh-fewest fantasy points per route, making it one of the worst projected WR/CB matchups in Week 11. The Titans' defense tends to be a pass funnel, with the seventh-highest pass rate over expected against.

Maybe there's a small chance of more than five targets in Addison's direction. However, it seems unlikely with Jefferson and Hockenson healthy, especially against one of the tougher cornerback matchups.

Romeo Doubs vs. Jaylon Johnson

Since Week 6, Romeo Doubs ranks second on the team in expected fantasy points behind Josh Jacobs, yet first among their pass catchers. That's mainly due to his team-high 19 percent target share, and 28 percent air yards share from Weeks 6-10.

The Packers continue spreading the ball around via the air, with five wide receivers and tight ends with a target share of 10 percent or higher, including Doubs, Christian Watson (15 percent), Jayden Reed (15 percent), and Tucker Kraft (13 percent) rounding out the top options.

That's more concerning when the Packers have the fifth-lowest pass rate (50 percent) in neutral game scripts, showing they prefer to lean on the rushing game in close matchups.

The visual below shows the teams with the largest difference in rush rate during neutral game scripts in Weeks 6-10.

Though we can't guarantee a neutral game script against the Bears, opposing offenses have been shredding them on the ground. That's evident in the Bears allowing the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, meaning they're more of a run-funnel defense.

The Bears run the ninth-highest rate of zone coverage, with single high safety looks at the sixth-highest percentage. They also run the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3.

The visual below shows the Packers' receiving leaders against zone coverage.

Doubs has been decent against zone coverage, with a 21 percent target rate and 1.97 yards per route run. Reed smashes against zone coverage, averaging 3.49 yards per route run, while Doubs ranks third on the team.

Unsurprisingly, Reed crushes Cover 3, with the second-highest yards per route run at 4.23 among pass catchers with 10 or more targets. Meanwhile, Doubs produced efficiently with 2.86 yards per route run versus Cover 3, so maybe it's a more neutral matchup if the Bears continue to use that coverage at a high rate.

The individual WR/CB matchup for Doubs matches him up with Jaylon Johnson, who has been one of the better cornerbacks in the league. Johnson allows the lowest fantasy points per route run, tying him with Pat Surtain II and the sixth-fewest yards per route. The data doesn't look favorable for Doubs in Week 11.

The top performers against the Bears averaged six targets, four receptions, 64.4 receiving yards, and 12.8 PPR/G over the past five weeks. Gabe Davis's two touchdowns in Week 6 (21.5 PPR) and Terry McLaurin's five receptions and 125 receiving yards (17.5) have been the ceiling outcomes. Be cautious with the expectations for Doubs as a WR4/5 based on the usage and matchup.  

Darnell Mooney vs. Pat Surtain II

The story of the Broncos focused on their offense, including Bo Nix and Audric Estime. However, Pat Surtain II remains one of the scariest matchups for opposing receivers. If we had guessed which Falcons' receiver led the team in expected fantasy points, Drake London likely would have been atop the preseason list.

However, Darnell Mooney nearly matches London in expected fantasy points, with Mooney at 14.8 and London at 15.2.

That leads to Mooney's usage indicating a WR2 on an offense ranking sixth in pass rate (59 percent) in neutral game scripts on the season compared to the 19th-highest neutral pass rate in Weeks 6-10. The Falcons had the highest drop in neutral pass rate compared to Weeks 1-5, as seen below.

Though the Falcons move Mooney and London around the formation, Surtain II will likely match up against Mooney most often. Theoretically, Surtain II might line up more against London as the better receiver.

Regardless, we'll want to downgrade the Falcons' receivers in Week 11. The Broncos run the fifth-highest percentage of man coverage and the sixth-highest rate of Cover 1. However, it will be strength against strength in Week 11.

London boasts a 37 percent target rate and 2.61 yards per route compared to Mooney's 30 percent target per route rate and 2.97 yards per route run against man coverage.

Specifically against Cover 1, London bests Mooney in target rate (37 percent vs. 27 percent) and yards per route run (2.65 vs. 2.13). That tells us London and Mooney can win against man coverage, so maybe we shouldn't be as worried, with a slight downgrade for Mooney.

Below, we'll find the receiving leaders against man coverage sorted by targets per route run.

The Broncos' rush defense has been the best, allowing a league-low 1.29 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, ahead of the Chiefs. Furthermore, opposing offenses tend to pass more often, with the fifth-highest pass rate over expected. Though fantasy managers won't be sitting Mooney or London, we'll want to downgrade their matchups when lined up against Surtain II in a strength-versus-strength game.

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