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Andrew analyzes key fantasy football WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find the top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 5 (2023).
Welcome to Week 5 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 5
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
We start on Thursday Night, where the Bears secondary is extremely banged up. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are in smash spots.
The Steelers have been by far the easiest matchup in the league for opposing WRs. Nico Collins toasted their secondary last week, and this week Lamar Jackson should have no issue shredding them through the air. While Zay Flowers has been the top WR target earner so far, if Odell Beckham Jr. plays he actually has the easiest matchup. All Ravens WRs are in good spots.
Similar to the Ravens, the Chiefs don't always prioritize targeting their WRs. However, this week they get a smash spot against a Minnesota secondary that has been below average all year at limiting opposing WR groups. In deep leagues and large-field tournaments, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore could be viable.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been awesome as young targets for C.J. Stroud, but Robert Woods has the easiest matchup this week. It's a good spot for the reliable veteran Woods.
The Cardinals gave up a huge stat line to Brandon Aiyuk last week, and this week will be tasked with slowing down Ja'Marr Chase. It's a get-right spot for Joe Burrow, who has obviously underperformed so far.
Cooper Kupp is eligible to return this week, but the Rams could opt to keep him out at less than 100% health. Whoever lines up at WR for the Rams will take on an Eagles pass defense that has given up a ton of fantasy points so far this season. If Kupp doesn't play, Puka Nacua is a top option and Tutu Atwell is a solid play. The Vegas total is 50.5, so whoever sees targets for the Rams is likely to produce.
Terrace Marshall Jr. saw 10 targets last week and has a favorable matchup this week as well. It could be a negative game script for Bryce Young, who may have to pass a lot.
Brandin Cooks has been a ghost for Dallas through the first four weeks. If there's a spot for a sneaky good week, it's this week against San Francisco, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing RWRs this season.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
The Cardinals offense hasn't been terrible, and Marquise Brown is earning enough targets to be fantasy-relevant. Unfortunately, Brown gets the stingy coverage of the Bengals, who have limited opposing WR1s all year so far.
Drake London is stuck in a low pass volume situation with a below-average QB. He will also have to deal with Steven Nelson this week. DeMeco Ryans has the Texans' defense playing well, especially in terms of limiting opposing WR1s.
The Jets defense made Patrick Mahomes look mortal last week. This week they'll take on Russell Wilson and the Broncos, who have had their moments on offense. Courtland Sutton in particular gets a downgrade against the Jets' awesome outside corners.
Jordan Addison put up a gooseegg last week against the Panthers. This week he'll have to deal with a solid Kansas City pass defense, who have done a great job limiting WR2s all year.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been awesome at outside WR for the Texans. This week they'll have to deal with the solid Atlanta pass defense. They both get matchup downgrades but are obviously startable depending on your other options.
Thanks for reading all season and good luck this week.
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