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Expert Week 4 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD props. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season heads into Week 4 with another full slate of intriguing touchdown opportunities. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Jalen Hurts, QB - Philadelphia Eagles (+165, FanDuel) (37% Novig)
Hurts scored his first touchdown of the season last week, but he might have scored two if he wasn't in the medical tent getting evaluated for a concussion. If that had happened, these odds would be long gone.
Even with a dip in TD production last season, Hurts still recorded 8 touchdowns in 16 games. He had scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of the three seasons prior to last year.
The Eagles are down some key receiving options this week, with Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith out, but that should only make them lean on the run game more heavily.
It is a tough matchup against the Rams, but Hurts should be much closer to even money to score in this spot.
BET: 0.65 units to win 1.07 units.
Bucky Irving, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+190, Fanatics) (36% Novig)
Baker Mayfield is out for multiple weeks, and the Bucs sit 0-3 entering Week 4. They will turn the offense over to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, hoping he can inject some life into the season. With uncertainty at the quarterback position, it is hard to trust the passing game, and therefore the run game has a chance to be featured in this matchup.
Irving has dominated backfield touches this season, and he is expected to be in for a monster workload against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most touchdowns to the running back position this season.
You know who has had a good start to the season?
Bucky Irving pic.twitter.com/hjqqEvZy6W
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 21, 2026
The offense might totally flop without Mayfield, but if they don't, +190 is an absurd price for the workhorse RB1 to score.
BET: 0.55 units to win 1.05 units.
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More Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Isaiah Likely, TE - New York Giants (+290, DraftKings), (26% Novig)
Likely has been heavily involved in the Giants' passing attack this season. Through three weeks, he has already racked up 15 receptions on 23 targets, and he scored twice in the opener against Dallas. Despite losing his quarterback early in Week 2, the targets have continued to flow his way, and the role is only growing stronger.
The primary issue is that all three of his red zone targets came in Week 1, but I don't think that has anything to do with a change in philosophy or even the quarterback.
Arizona plays two-high coverage 77% of the time
#2 most in NFL
against two-high looks with Jameis Winston at QB, Isaiah Likely has 36% of the Giants’ targets
👀
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 2, 2026
The Giants are short home dogs this week, but they should be able to remain competitive against Arizona. The Cardinals have bled production to tight ends for years, which should keep Likely as a focal point of the offense. Last season, the Cardinals allowed the third-most yards and fourth-most touchdowns to the position. They again rank in the bottom 10 in both categories early this season.
BET: 0.35 units to win 1.02 units.
Darren Waller, TE - Carolina Panthers (+290, Fanatics), (27% Novig)
If you have already checked out my Week 4 props article, you know I am a big fan of Waller this week. Xavier Legette has been ruled out, and Jalen Coker is questionable after leaving last week's game with a quad injury.
Waller racked up a whopping 8 targets last week with those two wide receivers sidelined, and now he gets an elite matchup against Detroit. The Lions have been bludgeoned by the tight end position this season. Entering Week 4, they have already allowed a league-leading 351 yards and 6 (!) touchdowns to the position.
Beyond last week's spike in target volume, Waller has been a primary option in scoring situations. He has caught both of his red zone targets for touchdowns this season. With Legette out and Coker also banged up, the tight end should see plenty of opportunities this week.
BET: 0.35 units to win 1.02 units.
Trevor Lawrence, QB - Jacksonville Jaguars (+370, Fanatics), (22% Novig)
Lawrence has yet to rush for a touchdown this season, although he easily had one last week before taking a knee on the one-yard line. He is going to run one in for six sooner rather than later, and I'm betting that it happens this week. Lawrence rushed for 9 touchdowns last season, and 23 touchdowns in 80 career games (28.8%).
Even if we discount the spike in rushing TDs from Lawrence last season, this number still offers massive value. The line at +370 indicates an implied probability for Lawrence to score 21.3% of the time. He scored 23.3% of the time in his career BEFORE his massive uptick last season. He scored in more than 50% of his games last season.
This is the best ATD bet on the board this week, and maybe the best we get all season.
BET: 0.365 units to win 1.35 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
Trevor Lawrence, QB - Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000, FanDuel), (5% Novig)
The Jaguars are slight road dogs, a scenario which often introduces value to the volatile first-touchdown market anyways. On top of that, I previously laid out the significant value that Lawrence to find the end zone holds in general this week.
Combine them, and we have a delicious cocktail of value on a player who touches the ball every single snap. The +2000 number is widely available at multiple sportsbooks. Don't go crazy, but there won't be a ton of opportunities to get your money in this good over the course of the season.
BET: 0.1 units to win 2.0 units.
