Week 14 Thursday Night Football Prop Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers

December 9, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchups between the Vikings and Steelers, and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 14 with the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers: More or Less Contest

• Justin Jefferson MORE than 85.5 receiving yards
• Diontae Johnson MORE than 75.5 receiving yards

After seeing a combined nine targets in Weeks 8 & 9, wide receiver Justin Jefferson has seen at least nine targets in each of his last four games. With teammate Adam Thielen (ankle) likely sidelined for the week, that should lead to plenty of targets going Jefferson’s way. The Steelers have a fearsome pass rush, as they rank tied for fifth in the NFL for sacks, but they’re just 26th by DVOA against the pass. Jefferson has hit this mark in three of his last four games, with the outlier being a game where he finished with 83 receiving yards. This game shouldn’t be a blowout in either direction, so Jefferson should comfortably hit this due to the volume he’s likely to get. 

Similar to Jefferson, Johnson has been receiving a hefty workload as of late, and that is unlikely to change in this matchup. Johnson has had 50 or more receiving yards in every game since Week 2, and he’s seen double-digit targets in all but two games this season. He’s hit this mark in each of his last four games, and he remains the most consistent threat in this offense. The Vikings should be able to keep this game close which should give Johnson plenty of chances to get to this mark.  

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Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers: More or Less Contest

• Najee Harris MORE than 68.5 rushing yards
• Alexander Mattison MORE than 67.5 rushing yards

We might be setting the bar a little high for Najee on this one, considering he’s only hit this mark twice in his last five games and only six out of 13 games all season. However, this is a matchup he can take advantage of. Minnesota ranks last in adjusted yards allowed per carry at 5.02 per tote, and they’re 29th by DVOA against the run. Harris is still playing an incredible amount of snaps, as he’s suited up for 80 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps in nine of the team’s 12 games. In a good matchup with a high volume of work, this mark is in range for Harris.

Alexander Mattison’s matchup isn’t as great as Harris, but it’s also not completely terrible with Pittsburgh sliding in at 24th by DVOA against the run. Mattison does have the similar quality to Harris in that he will receive the overwhelming majority of the work in this game. With Dalvin Cook on the shelf last week, as he will be again this week, Mattison saw 86 percent of the snaps, and he had 25 of the team’s 30 running back touches. Mattison is the one getting the rock a lot when he’s out there, and as long as Minnesota doesn’t fall into a huge hole, he should stay active all game long in the rushing attack. 

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Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Rapid Fire Contest

• Ben Roethlisberger +20.5 passing yards vs Kirk Cousins & Justin Jefferson -10.5 receiving yards vs Diontae Johnson

This one is getting a little weird because you would expect that Justin Jefferson having a good game would positively correlate to Kirk Cousins being able to outpass Ben Roethlisberger, but Ben is just wily enough to cause some confusion. The Steelers can air the ball out, and in a dome, the weather won’t be as much of a limiting factor which could allow Ben to hit a deep ball to someone like Chase Claypool. In the Jefferson vs Johnson matchup, Jefferson is just playing too good of football right now to be slowed down. He excels both down the field and on the shorter routes, and there is less competition for him than Johnson for targets. I think both can have good games, but Jefferson is able to edge him out. 

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