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Week 13 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR


Hello and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings in the spotlight and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I'm currently ninth overall out of 130 rankers on FantasyPros after finishing ninth for the 2017 season, so I'd like to think I've earned some street cred here. #Consistency.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Week 13 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Those of you seeking out a boost at QB should target Mitch Trubisky (My Rank: 12, ECR: 19) if he’s active and Dak Prescott (13 vs. 16). Simply put, I'm a sucker for mobile QBs. That rushing floor is so juicy, and while Dak doesn't run as much as Trubs has, Prescott has tallied five rushing TDs in his last six contests. Mm-mm good! And it can't be overstated how valuable Amari Cooper is to Dak and the Cowboys, as having a receiver that can turn your pass into a long TD does quite a bit for one's ceiling. Digging deeper, Case Keenum (19 vs. 22) and Josh Allen (22 vs. 27) are decent streamers. Keenum gets the hapless Bengals defense and Allen’s rushing potential is worthy of serious 2QB consideration.

Those on the downswing are Philip Rivers (15 vs. 12) and Carson Wentz (18 vs. 14). Rivers is almost sure to be without stud RB Melvin Gordon and will need to do the heavy lifting Sunday night in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense is legitimate, with Joe Haden especially looking good since joining them, and a road date against them without a big rushing threat is a bad look. At least it isn't a 1PM start?

Then there’s Wentz, who has plenty of help around him but simply looks lost on the field. We've discussed before how Philly’s offensive coordinator is openly lamenting the Golden Tate trade, yet Tate continues to lead the team in targets. Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole with such frequency explains much of Wentz and the Eagles’ struggles. If I knew they would go back to a healthy diet of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Plus, as we'll get to in a moment, their best offensive weapon is a big favorite of mine to steal work.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Cam Newton CAR QB 2 1
2 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 1 -1
3 Jared Goff LAR QB 3 0
4 Jameis Winston TB QB 5 1
5 Drew Brees NO QB 4 -1
6 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 6 0
7 Russell Wilson SEA QB 7 0
8 Andrew Luck IND QB 8 0
9 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 9 0
10 Kirk Cousins MIN QB 11 1
11 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 10 -1
12 Lamar Jackson BAL QB 12 0
13 Dak Prescott DAL QB 16 3
14 Philip Rivers LAC QB 13 -1
15 Tom Brady NE QB 14 -1
16 Matt Ryan ATL QB 17 1
17 Carson Wentz PHI QB 15 -2
18 Baker Mayfield CLE QB 18 0
19 Marcus Mariota TEN QB 19 0
20 Case Keenum DEN QB 21 1
21 Josh Allen BUF QB 24 3
22 Matthew Stafford DET QB 20 -2
23 Colt McCoy WAS QB 23 0
24 Derek Carr OAK QB 22 -2
25 Jeff Driskel CIN QB 28 3
26 Chase Daniel CHI QB 25 -1
27 Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 26 -1
28 Eli Manning NYG QB 27 -1
29 Cody Kessler JAC QB 29 0
30 Josh Rosen ARI QB 30 0
31 Nick Mullens SF QB 31 0
32 Sam Darnold NYJ QB 33 1
33 Taysom Hill NO QB 34 1

 

Week 13 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Josh Adams (17 vs. 20) fought through a first-half injury to still make good on his buzz against a hapless Giants run defense that is worthy of its own hour-long comedy special. Despite missing time, Adams led the Eagles with 40 snaps (62%) compared to 55% in Week 11 and 31% in Week 10. He put up 84 yards and a tuddy on the scoreboard while Wendell Smallwood played just one snap. Corey Clement looked good in relief of Adams, but at least this RB stable is down to two with Adams being the clear 1A to deploy.

Hey, remember the Giants comedy tour? Well, the Bears are next guests with front-row seats to the show. Even though Jordan Howard (24 vs. 32) is on his last strike in his final at-bat in 2018, he’s about to get a Giant meatball down the middle. It may feel like he’s no longer in the gameplan, but he’s still topped 60% of their snaps in each of the last two games. If Trubisky plays then I’m plugging Howard in.

Where there’s light, there’s also darkness. I’m also three-to-four spots lower on Dion Lewis, Adrian Peterson and James White. Lewis only outsnapped Derrick Henry 29-to-27 in Week 12 and has 89 rush yards on 37 carries and a 10-52-0 receiving line in the last three weeks. Marcus Mariota is finally elevating Corey Davis and we're also seeing Jonnu Smith take a couple steps forward, but Tennessee's run game is truly maddening right now. You hand it off to the backup TE on a dive play on fourth down? Why?

Peterson is faltering behind a patchwork Washington offensive line as Father Time catches up with him in the later weeks of the season, but he also failed to log a red-zone opportunity for the first time last week (Kapri Bibbs saw all three). White may be wearing down under heavier usage, but this is largely about Rex Burkhead coming back. Burkhead is versatile but plays better as a passing-down back rather than between-the-tackles banger, so I believe Sony Michel is rather safe and White could be scaled back.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Todd Gurley LAR RB 1 0
2 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 2 0
3 Spencer Ware KC RB 21 18
4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 4 0
5 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 3 -2
6 James Conner PIT RB 7 1
7 Alvin Kamara NO RB 6 -1
8 Aaron Jones GB RB 5 -3
9 Nick Chubb CLE RB 9 0
10 David Johnson ARI RB 8 -2
11 Joe Mixon CIN RB 11 0
12 Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 10 -2
13 Gus Edwards BAL RB 16 3
14 Lamar Miller HOU RB 13 -1
15 Matt Breida SF RB 12 -3
16 Dalvin Cook MIN RB 17 1
17 Chris Carson SEA RB 15 -2
18 Josh Adams PHI RB 18 0
19 Sony Michel NE RB 19 0
20 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 14 -6
21 Mark Ingram NO RB 20 -1
22 LeSean McCoy BUF RB 23 1
23 Tarik Cohen CHI RB 22 -1
24 Jordan Howard CHI RB 31 7
25 Carlos Hyde JAC RB 29 4
26 Dion Lewis TEN RB 24 -2
27 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 26 -1
28 Peyton Barber TB RB 32 4
29 Doug Martin OAK RB 33 4
30 Kenyan Drake MIA RB 30 0
31 James White NE RB 25 -6
32 Tevin Coleman ATL RB 27 -5
33 Frank Gore MIA RB 35 2
34 Royce Freeman DEN RB 40 6
35 LeGarrette Blount DET RB 36 1
36 Theo Riddick DET RB 38 2
37 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 34 -3
38 Duke Johnson CLE RB 41 3
39 Derrick Henry TEN RB 37 -2
40 Justin Jackson LAC RB 45 5
41 Marlon Mack IND RB 28 -13
42 Nyheim Hines IND RB 44 2
43 Elijah McGuire NYJ RB 42 -1
44 Isaiah Crowell NYJ RB 43 -1
45 Chris Thompson WAS RB 53 8
46 Jalen Richard OAK RB 39 -7
47 Latavius Murray MIN RB 46 -1
48 Corey Clement PHI RB 49 1
49 Mike Davis SEA RB 50 1
50 Ito Smith ATL RB 47 -3
51 Giovani Bernard CIN RB 52 1
52 Rashaad Penny SEA RB 48 -4
53 Rex Burkhead NE RB 58 5
54 Damien Williams KC RB 74 20
55 Kenneth Dixon BAL RB 87 32
56 Malcolm Brown LAR RB 61 5
57 Chris Ivory BUF RB 59 2
58 Ty Montgomery BAL RB 51 -7
59 Jordan Wilkins IND RB 56 -3
60 Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB 57 -3
61 Jamaal Williams GB RB 55 -6
62 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 62 0
63 Javorius Allen BAL RB 64 1
64 Tommy Bohanon JAC RB 91 27
65 Alfred Blue HOU RB 54 -11
66 Chase Edmonds ARI RB 68 2
67 Kapri Bibbs WAS RB 60 -7
68 Alfred Morris SF RB 88 20
69 Zach Line NO RB 92 23
70 James Develin NE RB 89 19
71 Devontae Booker DEN RB 66 -5
72 Rod Smith DAL RB 70 -2
73 Deandre Washington OAK RB 65 -8
74 Zach Zenner DET RB 69 -5
75 Wayne Gallman NYG RB 67 -8
76 Taquan Mizzell CHI RB 73 -3
77 Anthony Sherman KC RB 81 4
78 Kalen Ballage MIA RB 77 -1
79 Ameer Abdullah MIN RB 83 4
80 Marcus Murphy BUF RB 75 -5
81 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB 72 -9
82 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB 63 -19
83 Trenton Cannon NYJ RB 76 -7
84 Matthew Dayes SF RB 85 1
85 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR RB 79 -6
86 Andy Janovich DEN RB 90 4
87 Roosevelt Nix PIT RB 101 14
88 Mark Walton CIN RB 95 7
89 Alex Armah CAR RB 84 -5
90 CJ Ham MIN RB 86 -4
91 Jeffery Wilson SF RB 71 -20
92 Ronald Jones II TB RB 78 -14
93 Darren Sproles PHI RB 97 4
94 Byron Marshall WAS RB 104 10
95 Darrel Williams KC RB 103 8

 

Week 13 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’m surprised to see Robert Woods (8 vs. 12) so low, but I suppose he vies with Adam Thielen for most underrated star WR. I should also note my love for Adam Humphries (31 vs. 38). Deeper down, I also need to mention Marcell Ateman (61 vs. 76), Trey Quinn (63 vs. 82) and Equanimeous St. Brown (67 vs. 86).

Woods is feasting out of the Rams’ slot and saw a team-high five red-zone opportunities in Week 11’s shootout with the Chiefs. His 90 targets lead one of the most potent teams in the NFL, so you’ve got a trusted set of hands running high-percentage routes and garnering lots of RZ targets. Check, please!

Then there’s Humphries, who has shown chemistry with Jameis Winston over the years and also has 40 targets in his last six games. Much of those were Ryan Fitzpatrick targets, but my optimism lies in the new Winston that focused on short-to-intermediate passes rather than going for the home-run ball. With DeSean Jackson falling out of favor and never looking right with Winston at QB, I’ll take Humphries as a square WR3 in standard and PPR alike.

In Raiderland, Marcell Ateman tallied a whopping 10 targets in Week 12, but caught only three for 16 yards. The man is six-foot-five and may surprise us if Derek Carr can throw the ball a bit more true as Oakland sees what it has in Ateman rather than grind the low ceilings of Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts.

And how about Quinn, who is worthy of starting simply due to his doing “The Scarn” as a TD celebration on Thanksgiving, but also caught five-of-six Colt McCoy targets as Washington scrambles for a spark. He’ll fall by the wayside if Jamison Crowder returns over the middle, but for now Quinn is a quiet PPR play. And while the hype grows for Jake Kumerow in Green Bay, I think MVS is ready to rebound against Arizona’s poor slot DBs (whether Budda Baker plays or Leonard Johnson attempts to is another thing).

On the other side lies pessimism for Jarvis Landry (38 vs. 28), David Moore (44 vs. 36) and the aforementioned Golden Tate (47 vs. 37). New Browns OC Freddie Kitchens isn’t featuring Landry and is seeing fantastic results, with the more valuable downfield targets going to David Njoku, Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins. And once Cleveland’s in the red zone then it’s all about the RBs. Over their past three games, Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson have combined for 18 RZ opps. All WRs have combined for three (Landry has one) while the TEs have two. So I’ll be passing on Landry, just as Cleveland is.

The past five weeks have seen Seattle pass just 48% of the time, standing as one of three teams under 50%. Moore is a boss, but is a better dynasty asset than redraft flex play and his average of six targets per game in that five-week window makes him mighty TD-dependent. As such, I can’t make him a low-end WR3 just yet. And with Tate, I just have no belief in Philadelphia to scheme for him. The WR screens are halfhearted so his leading in targets feels like empty calories.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Antonio Brown PIT WR 10 3
2 Tyreek Hill KC WR 8 0
3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 9 -2
4 Adam Thielen MIN WR 14 2
5 Michael Thomas NO WR 13 0
6 Davante Adams GB WR 16 2
7 Julio Jones ATL WR 17 2
8 Robert Woods LAR WR 25 3
9 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR 19 -4
10 Brandin Cooks LAR WR 22 -2
11 Keenan Allen LAC WR 33 4
12 Stefon Diggs MIN WR 30 0
13 A.J. Green CIN WR 80 47
14 Mike Evans TB WR 24 -13
15 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 29 -9
16 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 37 -4
17 Kenny Golladay DET WR 35 -7
18 Amari Cooper DAL WR 38 -5
19 Julian Edelman NE WR 50 4
20 T.Y. Hilton IND WR 42 -6
21 Corey Davis TEN WR 57 5
22 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 49 -4
23 D.J. Moore CAR WR 53 -3
24 Josh Gordon NE WR 56 -1
25 Tyler Boyd CIN WR 63 4
26 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 61 0
27 Allen Robinson CHI WR 66 4
28 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 67 3
29 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 71 6
30 Adam Humphries TB WR 76 10
31 Josh Reynolds LAR WR 72 5
32 Chris Godwin TB WR 75 7
33 Courtland Sutton DEN WR 78 9
34 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 70 0
35 Demaryius Thomas HOU WR 81 10
36 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 69 -4
37 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 79 5
38 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 98 23
39 Michael Crabtree BAL WR 109 33
40 Anthony Miller CHI WR 90 8
41 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 95 10
42 David Moore SEA WR 82 -4
43 Mike Williams LAC WR 100 13
44 Chris Conley KC WR 134 45
45 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR 104 14
46 Golden Tate PHI WR 87 -6
47 Christian Kirk ARI WR 89 -7
48 Taylor Gabriel CHI WR 92 -6
49 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 96 -5
50 Dante Pettis SF WR 138 36
51 Devin Funchess CAR WR 121 18
52 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 116 11
53 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR 102 -4
54 John Ross CIN WR 123 12
55 John Brown BAL WR 112 -3
56 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 99 -17
57 Donte Moncrief JAC WR 108 -9
58 Josh Doctson WAS WR 101 -17
59 Willie Snead BAL WR 130 11
60 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 118 -3
61 Marcell Ateman OAK WR 137 15
62 Cole Beasley DAL WR 135 10
63 Jermaine Kearse NYJ WR 124 -2
64 Trey Quinn WAS WR 144 17
65 Keke Coutee HOU WR 115 -14
66 Michael Gallup DAL WR 139 9
67 Devante Parker MIA WR 113 -19
68 Kenny Stills MIA WR 125 -8
69 Equanimeous St. Brown GB WR 165 31
70 Danny Amendola MIA WR 176 39
71 Tyrell Williams LAC WR 114 -25
72 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 171 29

 

Week 13 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I know more Oakland hurts, but Jared Cook (6 vs. 9) remains the best bet for a touchdown through the air. He caught one last week and while I love Ateman seeing 10 targets, Cook is still their most athletic receiving option in a game where they're 15-point underdogs. Fantasy players also need to quickly catch up with Matt LaCosse (15 vs. 20), the six-foot-six tight end ready to enter Denver’s starting lineup with Jeff Heuerman joining Jake Butt on the IR. LaCosse caught his first career TD in Week 12 and now faces a Bengals defense that gives up fantasy points like a balloon on Free Balloon Day. Cincinnati’s cover safety, Shawn Williams, has an ugly 54.1 PFF grade and I don’t expect that to improve in Week 13.

Those I’m down on are Kyle Rudolph (17 vs. 14), C.J. Uzomah (21 vs. 18) and Benjamin Watson (29 vs. 21). I was surprised to see Rudolph catch seven balls for 63 yards in Week 12 since he hadn’t topped 60 yards since Week 2, but he’s now gone eight games without a TD and averages roughly five targets a game. You want me to trust middling targets and no red-zone production? I know the Patriots have been generous to opposing TEs in 2018, but Eric Ebron (9-105-2) and Trey Burton (9-126-1) are a bit sprier than Mr. Rudolph.

Uzomah will benefit if A.J. Green returns to the lineup and helps drag Jeff Driskel and company to paydirt, but we also have to account for the Hue Jackson “bonus” and that Uzomah has totaled 103 yards over his last four games despite seeing 26 targets, including a season-high 13 in Week 12 (6-39-0). Plus, if Green returns then we have to downgrade Uzomah’s target share. Uzomah is TD-dependent with a backup QB on a team that Vegas has given just 19.5 implied points at home (+5, 44 O/U). Oy vey.

And finally, Watson’s last five games have seen him command just eight targets. Josh Hill has just as many in that span and Dan Arnold has 12, which is a red alert in my eyes. The trend can be seen in Watson’s snap counts, where he’s sat at 80% in Weeks 1 and 2, only to fall to ~50% in Weeks 3-6 and he’s been fighting to stay above 30% ever since. Arnold has some intrigue, but Watson is outside the circle of trust due to this.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Travis Kelce KC TE 1 0
2 Zach Ertz PHI TE 2 0
3 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 3 0
4 Eric Ebron IND TE 5 1
5 George Kittle SF TE 4 -1
6 Jared Cook OAK TE 8 2
7 Greg Olsen CAR TE 6 -1
8 Cameron Brate TB TE 7 -1
9 David Njoku CLE TE 9 0
10 Jordan Reed WAS TE 10 0
11 Trey Burton CHI TE 11 0
12 Vance McDonald PIT TE 13 1
13 Austin Hooper ATL TE 12 -1
14 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 15 1
15 Matt LaCosse DEN TE 19 4
16 Gerald Everett LAR TE 20 4
17 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 14 -3
18 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 16 -2
19 Jimmy Graham GB TE 18 -1
20 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 17 -3
21 Nick Vannett SEA TE 21 0
22 Antonio Gates LAC TE 23 1
23 Jesse James PIT TE 25 2
24 Rhett Ellison NYG TE 32 8
25 Hayden Hurst BAL TE 30 5
26 Mark Andrews BAL TE 28 2
27 Michael Roberts DET TE 37 10
28 Benjamin Watson NO TE 22 -6
29 Vernon Davis WAS TE 27 -2
30 Tyler Higbee LAR TE 24 -6
31 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 29 -2
32 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 26 -6
33 Ed Dickson SEA TE 33 0
34 Lance Kendricks GB TE 34 0
35 James O'Shaughnessy JAC TE 31 -4
36 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 36 0
37 Jordan Thomas HOU TE 40 3
38 Virgil Green LAC TE 43 5
39 Jordan Akins HOU TE 48 9
40 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 39 -1
41 Luke Stocker TEN TE 49 8
42 Ryan Griffin HOU TE 35 -7
43 Josh Hill NO TE 42 -1
44 Garrett Celek SF TE 72 28
45 Dalton Schultz DAL TE 46 1
46 Jason Croom BUF TE 41 -5
47 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE 50 3
48 Luke Willson DET TE 44 -4
49 Nick Boyle BAL TE 45 -4
50 Rico Gathers DAL TE 54 4
51 Demetrius Harris KC TE 47 -4
52 Logan Thomas BUF TE 51 -1
53 Levine Toilolo DET TE 52 -1
54 Xavier Grimble PIT TE 59 5
55 Maxx Williams BAL TE 76 21
56 Scott Simonson NYG TE 71 15
57 Nick O'Leary MIA TE 53 -4
58 Ben Koyack JAC TE 73 15
59 Antony Auclair TB TE 57 -2
60 Blake Bell JAC TE 55 -5
61 Chris Manhertz CAR TE 85 24
62 A.J. Derby MIA TE 64 2
63 Seth DeValve CLE TE 63 0
64 Jeremy Sprinkle WAS TE 84 20
65 Jacob Hollister NE TE 81 16
66 Ian Thomas CAR TE 88 22

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