RADIO
We knew this week was going to be a weird one. Many of the worst offenses in football were doing battle against one another, while some of the powerhouse defenses were facing each other as well. There seemed to be no real gimme choices on defense, except for New England against the Tennessee Titans' preseason lineup.
So it should come as no surprise that the top-five defenses of the week featured the Denver Broncos topping the Los Angeles Chargers, the New York Giants stifling the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Cincinnati Bengals clubbing the Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming into the week, the Chargers and Eagles were both in the top third in the league in allowing the fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses. To make it even weirder, the Eagles' defense finished outside the top-10 despite allowing only 264 yards of total offense. The offense's inability to do anything except turn the ball over allowed the Giants to play a ball-control offense that limited the pressure on their bench players who were forced to start.
This is just a long-winded way of saying that a weird NFL season continues to get weirder. Somehow, the Ravens are the top-seed in the AFC but they don't look like a particularly inspiring team. The DFS community has been throwing their hands up over roster construction and correlation, and the top-five running backs of the week featured Leonard Fournette, Cordarrelle Patterson, Elijah Mitchell, and Dontrell Hilliard. I think it's long past time to embrace the randomness and just try to limit our exposure to low-floor options.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly, as I did by bumping the Titans outside of the top-10 once it was revealed they would be playing with basically no offense.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 13 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 354.8 yards per game and 23.4 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 13 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically, the top-three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success, which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
Before we get started, if you're looking for Rest of Season Rankings, check the article here or keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
Look, Tampa Bay is not the defensive force we've made them out to be. They dominated the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in front of millions, but the defense had holes before that, almost losing their first-round game to Taylor Heinicke. In 2021, the Bucs have been a solid but unspectacular unit. They are 13th in sacks, seventh in pressure rate, fourth in turnover rate, and 14th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. However, they are definitely the type of defense that can take advantage of a Falcons offense that bleeds points to opposing defenses and currently allows the third-most points to opposing defenses. The Falcons actually don't allow a lot of sacks, but they turn the ball over a lot and don't put up big point totals, especially without Calvin Ridley, so I like the Bucs' chances of having a big day here.
The Arizona Cardinals had some time to get healthy after their bye week, and while J.J. Watt will not be returning, the offense returning to their high-flying ways will put pressure on opponents to keep up, which historically has led to improved chances for turnovers and sacks. That's good news for a team that's eighth in sacks on the season. The Bears are also dead last in the NFL in sacks allowed and don't have the defense to contain this Cardinals attack when it's firing, so this all sets up for a game where Arizona could come out of the bye and put up a big total for their fantasy defense.
Minnesota has struggled a bit since pass-rusher Danielle Hunter went down. The off-field concerns around defensive end Everson Griffen also certainly don't help the defense's performance on the field, but there is still talent on that side of the ball, and they face a Detroit Lions offense that just isn't positioned to really make Minnesota pay, especially with D'Andre Swift likely out for this game. Where Minnesota is most vulnerable is on the perimeter, but the Lions don't have the wide receivers to beat the Vikings down the field. That will force them to attack underneath, which is where Minnesota remains solid on defense. They are also still third in the NFL in pressure rate, second in QB hurry rate, and first in sacks, which will play into their favor against this Lions team.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
The Rams as a whole haven't looked good recently, and their defense hasn't seemed capable of stopping anybody. However, they remain a defense with talented individual players and a track record of success going up against a truly abysmal offense. The Jaguars are a mess and just got dominated by a Falcons defense that hasn't been able to stop anybody all season. The Jaguars are 27th in offensive turnover rate and 31st in drives that end in a score. They don't give up a ton of sacks, but they don't score points and they turn the ball over a lot. That's a recipe for disaster against Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey. I don't expect this to go well for Trevor Lawrence and company.
Having the Colts this high always worries me because they are quite literally last in the NFL in almost every single pressure metric. They don't get after the quarterback, which usually gives quarterbacks more time to make plays. However, this is an incredibly opportunistic defense that is third in the NFL in turnover rate, so that's what we're hanging our hat on this week against a Houston team that is 25th in turnovers and gives up the most points to opposing fantasy defenses. This Texans offense is a little bit better with Tyrod Taylor back, but they still just lost to the Jets so we're not talking about any crazy bump. I just can't put the Colts into Tier 1 because they are so reliant on turnovers and special teams play for their points.
One week after the Eagles let us down against the Giants, we're going to go back to the well against the other New York (New Jersey) team. Just like the Colts, I can't move the Eagles into Tier 1 because they've really only been fine as a defense. They're ninth over the last four weeks although they rank in the bottom third of the NFL in turnover rate and pressure rate. Their style of play is a deep Cover-2 that forces teams to take small chunk yardage and sustain long drives. Sustaining long drives is not what Zach Wilson does. He returned last week and looked just as frazzled and suspect as he was before he got hurt. This ranking is basically me saying that I don't think he has the focus or ability right now to maintain long drives against the Eagles, which will lead to turnovers and few points.
The Bills remain near the top in my rankings after a dominant performance against the Saints. They are still first in the NFL in yards allowed per play, second in turnover rate, second in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and first in pressure rate. However, the big news is certainly that Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White is out for the year with a torn ACL. That is a huge hit given that the Bills' zone scheme allows many other defenders to take chances knowing that White has his area of the zone locked down. It's quite obvious that Bill Bellichick is planning to take advantage of that, so there is some concern with how Buffalo will adapt. However, this is a massive game in front of home fans, and the Bills will have their run-stuffing defensive tackle Star Lotulelei back after he missed the last two games on the COVID list. That's enough to keep my faith in this defense for now.
Miami is the number two defense in fantasy over the last four weeks and they've vaulted from 26th in my rankings all the way up to 12th. They've found some of the turnover magic that made them such a strong unit last year, and they've gone to a more blitz-heavy approach that has really helped their pressure rate. All of those things would likely lead to them being higher on many rankings, but this is as far as I can go against a Giants offense that is uninspiring but not overly friendly to fantasy defenses. The Giants' offense is 12th in turnover rate and 14th in sacks, so they're firmly in the middle of the pack in the NFL, if not on the slightly higher end of average. Saquon Barkley has started to build back up to a full workload and the team should get back Kadarius Toney and maybe even Sterling Shepard this week. They're not a great offense, but don't think of this as a layup for Miami.
I know I'm going to take some heat as a biased Bills fan for having the Patriots this low, but I'm prepared for it. The Patriots have been on an absolute tear of late, and much of that has been on the back of their tremendous defense. I have the Patriots ranked first in my BOD rankings, so I understand just how good they've been. I also don't think they've faced a test like this. They're going into Buffalo in December with first place in the AFC East on the line. Since losing to the Cowboys 35-29 and falling to 2-4, the Patriots have rattled off six straight wins. But here is who they faced: the Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers with Sam Darnold at quarterback and Christian McCaffrey on a snap count in his first game back, the Browns without Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr., the Falcons without Cordarrelle Patterson and Calvin Ridley, and the Titans without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown. The only full-strength team they beat is the Chargers. That's not to knock this defense. It is legit, and that's why they're still in my top-10. This is just my reason for saying they are not a slam dunk option against this Bills offense.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
People are going to knock the Cowboys because of the Thanksgiving game, but this defense remains third in fantasy football over the last month and is eighth for me on the season. They're ninth in pressure rate, eighth in turnover rate, and ninth in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. It's a solid unit. The Raiders also gained so many yards on utterly questionable pass interference calls, so I'm not going to hold that against the Cowboys although they certainly could have played a better game. New Orleans will turn to Taysom Hill at quarterback and figures to get Alvin Kamara back this week, so this offense will get a little more explosive, which is why I have Dallas in Tier 3. They're still playable, but I don't expect a massive total.
This Denver vs Kansas City game could be a sneaky defensive battle. Over the last month, Kansas City is the seventh-best fantasy defense and Denver is 12th but just got finished shutting down a strong Chargers offense. Denver is fourth in the NFL in percentage of drives that end in an opposing score, 10th in pressure rate, and fourth in QB hurry rate, while Kansas City is third in QB hurry rate, sixth in pressure rate, and 12th in turnover rate. Denver's defense limit's big plays, which has caused Kansas City to take careless chances and has led to the Chiefs being 31st in the league in turnover rate. The Chiefs give up the 14th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses while the Broncos give up the 10th-most, so there is some meat on this bone. I'm not confident in either play, but they're better than what's below them in the rankings.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh is another game that could turn into a defensive slugfest. We think of these teams and think of their grind-it-out defensive battles, but the truth is neither defense has been particularly stout this year. Yes, Baltimore looked great on Sunday against the Browns, but the Browns basically abandoned the run to try and beat Baltimore through the air, which makes no sense given their roster. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just got pummeled by Cincinnati, which I warned you about in my weekly Pick 3DST video. However, Baltimore is also 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed, and Pittsburgh is sixth in the NFL in sacks. With Pittsburgh playing for their postseason lives, I expect this to be a close game, but I'd still side with Baltimore's defense based on their recent performance, which hasn't been good (19th over the last month) but has been better than Pittsburgh (24th over the last month).
Las Vegas slides into Tier 3 because of the matchup. Washington gives up the ninth-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and is simply a mediocre offense. The Raiders' defense has lost a little bit of juice with all of the off-field drama beginning to catch up with them, but they're middle of the pack in pressure rate metrics and are seventh in the NFL in yards allowed per play, so they can be a solid unit when they show up to play. Much like with Pittsburgh, this game is big for Las Vegas' chances at the playoffs, so I will roll the dice that this is a game their defense shows up for.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
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