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Another week, and another bit of craziness in the NFL. We saw the Bills, Cowboys, and Chiefs all revert back to their normal form and crush their opponents, but then we also had Tampa Bay lose to Washington, Baltimore lose to Miami, and the Los Angeles Rams get smoked by San Francisco. After ten weeks of the season, it may be fair to say that there is no truly dominant team in the NFL this year, which is exciting but can also be a major headache when planning your fantasy defense.
As a result, it was another down week for me, hitting on five of the top-10 defenses. Buffalo, Dallas, and Carolina remained stalwart units that we've been able to use all season, while New England continued their climb and Indianapolis took advantage of a good matchup and a blocked punt TD to get inside the top-10. However, Arizona faceplanted against a Carolina team that started P.J. Walker, Pittsburgh couldn't get into the top-10 against Detroit, Tampa Bay blew it against Washington, and Cleveland laid a massive egg against a Patriots offense that was allowing the 9th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses.
All of which makes me keep feeling as though you're better off holding your strong defense in a mediocre matchup than to cut them for a good streamer. We simply don't know when these streamers are going to hit or when a strong team is going to have a down week. For me, I'd rather respond to that by taking the consistent floor of a Pittsburgh or Minnesota over the potential upside of a streamer in a good matchup. The Colts were in the top-10 this week but finished 17th last week against the Jets. Considering the volatility we have elsewhere in a fantasy lineup, why not allow your defense to be a more conservative, high-floor option?
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly, as I did by bumping the Panthers up once it was clear Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were out again.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 11 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 354.8 yards per game and 23.4 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 11 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Before we get started, if you're looking for Rest of Season Rankings, check the article here or keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
What can you say about New England right now? They're playing great football. At the beginning of the season, I wasn't sure how good this defense would be without the Stephon Gilmore, but they've stepped up. I wasn't convinced that Mac Jones would be that useful in his rookie season, but he keeps getting better. The Browns didn't have Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt last week, but the Patriots just utterly destroyed them. Now they will get Atlanta on a short week without Cordarrelle Patterson and Calvin Ridley. Atlanta just got thrashed by the Cowboys, so I think turning around quickly to play the Patriots is not going to be easy or fun. I know weird things happen on Thursday Night Football, but I'm very comfortable rolling out the Patriots defense.
Tennessee slides into the top tier this week based on their recent performance and matchup. The Titans are only 14th in my rankings but a lot of that has to do with the way the stats are skewed by their slow start to the season. The Titans do have some issues in their secondary, which led to big plays earlier in the season, but they are getting healthy now and are the highest-scoring defense from Week 5 on, which is a stretch that included games against the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints. Houston currently gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses and while I do think their offense is better with Tyrod Taylor under center, that doesn't mean I think their offense is good.
Everybody wants to keep writing the Carolina Panthers off, but their defense keeps stepping up. They are 3rd in my BOD rankings and 8th in fantasy points scored over the last four weeks. They're currently 3rd in pressure rate, 2nd in yards allowed per play, and 2nd in percentage of drives that end in an opposing team's score. The addition of Stephon Gilmore has helped them against a team's top wide receivers and will be crucial against Terry McLaurin next week. I know Washington just pulled off a major upset, but they also lost Chase Young in the process, and I just don't see them being able to carry over the production into another week. They had allowed the 6th-most points to opposing DSTs going into their matchup with the Bucs (and still do) and the Panthers have a much better pass rush than Tampa, so I'm going to trust Carolina in this one.
I just can't drop Buffalo out of the top tier. Maybe it's my Bills bias, but the metrics still tell me that this is the best fantasy unit going right now. They're 1st in yards allowed per play, 1st in turnover rate, 1st in percentage of drives that end in an opposing score, 1st in QB hurry rate, and 2nd in pressure rate. They're just an incredibly well-rounded unit. However, Indianapolis gives up the 30th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, so they have been a hard team to put up big numbers against. They have a strong offensive line and control the ball and clock with Jonathan Taylor. Still, as a said above, with all the craziness this season in the NFL, I'll take the Bills' floor over trying to play the streaming game. Maybe they get in Carson Wentz's face and make him make some bad throws.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Now, we get into a tier of enigmatic defenses in solid matchups. The Browns were a mess in every facet of the game on Sunday against the Patriots; however, things certainly get easier this week against a Lions offense that allows the 8th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Browns bring a lot of pressure, ranking 1st in sacks and 8th in pressure rate, which is good news against a Lions offense that is 25th in sacks allowed. Jared Goff is reportedly unlikely to play on Sunday, which means Tim Boyle will be the quarterback for the Lions in a game in Cleveland that is supposed to be played in ugly weather. That sounds like a recipe for defensive goodness to me.
Tampa Bay let us down last week in a plus matchup, but now they get to right the ship in another plus matchup. Yes, Saquon Barkley will likely be back, but it's hard to say just how much the Giants will put on his plate after such a long playoff. The Bucs are 7th in drives ending in an offensive turnover, 8th in yards per play, and 9th in pressure rate. Their pass rush has let them down a bit this year, but the Giants' offensive line has been decided average, ranking 17th in sacks allowed, so I expect Tampa to have a clear advantage there. I also am just willing to bet on pride at this point. As I mentioned before, we saw the Bills, Cowboys, and Chiefs respond from poor weeks by absolutely drubbing their opponents, and I think the reigning Super Bowl champions will be looking to do the same thing.
Oh, hey, another defense that sometimes looks great and sometimes is a trainwreck. Baltimore has dropped down to 15th in my rankings after last week's poor showing against Miami. For just a taste of how mercurial this defense is, they are 1st in pressure rate, 20th in sacks, 13th in QB hurry rate, 8th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 27th in turnover rate. One week the pass rush carries them and they look great, and then the next week, their secondary lets them down and they look average. This week they're going up against a Bears team that allows the 7th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and, most importantly, Chicago allows the most sacks in the NFL. Justin Fields has started to look much better of late, but he can still hold onto the ball too long, so this is a week where I think the Ravens' pass rush wins out.
San Francisco's BOD ranking is incomplete right now as Pro Football Reference hasn't updated their stats from Monday Night. However, we saw a really solid performance from a defense that is incredibly banged up. I had high hopes for the 49ers this year, but with guys like Dee Ford and Javon Kinlaw on the injured reserve, some of the teeth has been taken out of this unit. Still, they are the 13th ranked defense over the last four weeks and get a strong matchup this week against a Jacksonville team that gives up the 2nd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. Trevor Lawrence has thrown just five touchdown passes since Week 1. Gross.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Don't look now, but the Dolphins are playing some strong defense of late, coming in as the 4th ranked defense over the last four weeks. They seem to have gotten a little bit of that turnover magic back and are looking more like the unit many of us thought would be a good sleeper DST heading into this season. That's good news this week against a Jets team that gives up the 3rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. Now with Zack Wilson back under center, I expect an offense that takes more unnecessary chances down the field, since I just don't think the rookie is ready. That will mean more turnover opportunities for the Dolphins.
This tier is filled with top-10 defenses for me that are just in poor matchups. Green Bay is the 3rd-ranked defense over the last four weeks, while Arizona, Minnesota, and Dallas have been stalwarts for me all season. Arizona and Minnesota have started to see their injuries catch up with them a little bit of late, but not so much so that I'm totally abandoning ship. If you wanted to hold and/or play any of these four defenses this week instead of streaming something crazy off of the wire, I wouldn't hold it against you.
Philadelphia has been really good of late, ranking 6th over the last four weeks. However, the only reason I'm not bullish on them this week is that New Orleans ranks 25th in points allowed to opposing defenses. They are not a strong offense; however, their philosophy prioritizes ball control and not taking unnecessary chances down the field. They also rank 10th in the NFL in sacks allowed. What all of that adds up to is an offense that doesn't give you many chances to score fantasy points on defense. I expect Alvin Kamara back this week, which makes this an even less inciting matchup.
The Chargers and Steelers game features two defenses who haven't quite lived up to the hype and two offenses who seem to have gone into shells lately. I have no real confidence in playing either of these units; however, there is a chance that Ben Roethlisberger misses another game due to COVID, which would make me a little more excited by the Chargers since Mason Rudolph still isn't good. I might move the Chargers into that Green Bay and Minnesota chunk of this tier if that were to happen.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
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