Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Eagles vs Buccaneers

October 14, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Buccaneers and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 6 with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• Leonard Fournette MORE than 55.5 rushing yards
• Jalen Hurts LESS than 49.5 rushing yards

This is Leonard Fournette’s backfield. He has 30 more carries than any other Bucs’ ball-carrier, and he has 49 more touches than any other player in the backfield. Outside of the team’s Week 3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Fournette has led the backfield in snaps and he’s gone over the 50-yard mark in three out of five games this season, with the two exceptions being Week 1 and Week 3 when they abandoned the running game. The Eagles are giving up an average of 142 yards on the ground per game, which is the third-worst mark in the league. Tampa Bay should be able to get a lead and give Fournette plenty of touches.

After going for more than 60 yards in his first three career starts, Hurts has only gone for more than 50 yards in two of his last six contests, including zero times in his last three games. The matchup with the Bucs is against a team that has yet to allow an opponent to go for more than 76 yards as an entire team. Asking Hurts to get two-thirds of their worst outing as a defense is asking a lot. I also expect Philadelphia to be throwing the ball more against this passing defense.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• DeVonta Smith MORE than 74.5 receiving yards
• Mike Evans MORE than 74.5 receiving yards

What’s the best way to attack the Tampa Bay defense? It’s through the air. DeVonta Smith currently has a 22.8 percent target share, and he has 14 more targets than any other Eagles’ pass catcher. More importantly, he has a 42.2 percent share of his team’s intended air yards. When Hurts is pushing the ball down the field, he’s throwing to Smith, and he should be able to get more than this mark against this defense. 

After a quiet outing in Week 1, Mike Evans has resumed his role as his team’s WR1. He’s seen 39 targets in the last four games, and he’s gone for 75 or more yards in all four weeks. He leads the team in target share along with market share of air yards and total yardage. This Eagles’ team can’t slow down all of the Bucs’ weapons, and Evans will get enough looks to get over this mark again in Week 6.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• Miles Sanders LESS than 35.5 rushing yards
• Chris Godwin LESS than 74.5 receiving yards

The Bucs have the league’s best run defense. It’s not a debate at this point. Miles Sanders, unless he breaks one big play, is going to struggle mightily in this matchup. He’s gone for more than 35.5 yards just once in his last three games, and he’s seen double-digit carries just once in that timespan. Assuming the negative game script, Sanders shouldn’t be relied upon in the running game. 

Predicting which Bucs’ wideout is going to have a good week is impossible. They seem to be on a never-ending carousel of each guy having a huge week. Chris Godwin caught seven passes for 70 yards in Week 5, and he’s banged up in Week 6. Assuming the team is leading, they have the depth to let him rest down the stretch of the game. He also hasn’t gone for more than this mark since Week 1 of the season which should boost the confidence rating in this call.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rapid Fire Contest

• Tom Brady -20.5 passing yards vs Jalen Hurts & Devonta Smith +0.5 receiving yards vs Chris Godwin

Brady, despite being nearly twice the age of his quarterback opponent in this game, is still just better at this stage of his career. He’s averaging 353.4 yards per game through the air compared to 273 yards per game for Hurts. The Eagles will be forced to throw the ball in this game, but Brady has more than enough weapons to keep a gap between he and Hurts. As far as the battle between Smith and Godwin, we already like Smith to go for more than 74.5 with Godwin going for less than 74.5. Smith is already the clear leading man in Philadelphia while Godwin is contending for targets with two of the best NFL wideouts from the last decade. I think Smith is able to win this head-to-head matchup.

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