X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Monthly xwOBA Splits (Week 10)

Welcome back to Rotoballer's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

All savvy fantasy players know that when we scour the trade block or waiver wire for pitchers, the season-long body of work becomes less important as the year progresses. When weighing transactions, owners don't want to make the mistake of overpaying for a guy that performed great in April but has since gone the way of Sidney Ponson. Sure, consistency is the name of the game, but market timing also is critical in assessing player value. We've turned the calendar to June and it's fair to start comparing periodic splits.

Way back in Week 5, we discussed the topic of wOBA and xwOBA to observe how the differences in the two metrics could help identify anomalies in pitching performance. As a reminder, wOBA measures the actual outcome of an at-bat while xwOBA determines the expected outcomes of that same at-bat based on Statcast information like exit velocity and launch angle. Since this is a Statcast series, let's focus on the latter. Today we'll compare the difference in xwOBA for starters between the months of April and May to categorize our risers and fallers.

Featured Promo: Get your MLB Premium Pass for 50% off the regular price when get any full-season pass. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Bound to Pop

All stats as of May 31 for pitchers that threw over 400 pitches in both April (125 total) and May (122).

Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins (4-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.02 K/9)

Few people outside of Miami knew of Caleb Smith entering 2018. Come to think of it, most Miamians probably didn't know about him either. Smith had a forgettable start to the season, ending April with a 4.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His xwOBA was a pedestrian .318. In May, that xwOBA improved to .284 which was good for 17th-best in the majors. The results were excellent, Smith posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the month.

So what changed? His pitch velocity and movements look the same month-to-month and he still relies on three pitches. The difference might be deception and pitching to soft contact. In April, Smith registered a 12.7 K/9 by emphasizing his fastball-slider. Strikeouts are fine, but they were paired with ugly, unusable ratios. In May, he peeled back the power pitches and threw his changeup more often. The K/9 declined to 9.1, but his opponent slugging percentage dropped significantly. By upping the changeup usage to only 15%, Smith increased the pitch values for his entire arsenal.

With current trends, the K/9 outlook for Smith may drop to about one per inning. Fantasy owners will gladly take that for the existing 3.21 FIP the rest of the way. The .260 BABIP is probably too low and he has control problems (4.2 BB/9), but if Smith continues keeping hitters off balanced, the fly ball-heavy pitcher (48.9% FB%) should keep reaping the rewards of spacious Marlins Park.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (2-5, 3.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.63 K/9)

Not sure I've ever pounded the table on Tanner Roark. So this is weird. But recency bias aside, Roark has been solid through his career (3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). The guy deserves his fair shake. Roark improved from an unflattering .343 xwOBA in April to the 20th-lowest .288 in May. The headline returns for Roark were actually better in April, so the conclusion is he could presently be experiencing better aggregate numbers.

Roark is a five-pitch guru and has always enjoyed positive pitch values across the board. He started the year throwing more power pitches, and has since tapered that to focus on more changeups and curveballs. The results are higher whiff percentages for his primary fastball (8.3% to 11.7%) and sinker (3.1% to 7.1%). Both pitches also saw drops in opponent slugging, most notably in the fastball from .400 to .048. Make no mistake, Roark still greatly depends on his fastball-sinker (54.3% combined), but he's done an excellent job sprinkling in secondary pitches.

Roark's .241 BABIP certainly suggests batted-balls will drop more frequently. But if he holds them to singles (21.2% Soft%), he may yet avoid the dreaded blowup innings. His lack of strikeouts makes him a very unsexy fantasy starter and results in an unremarkable K/BB (2.5), but Roark's proven himself a reliable asset. Taking advantage on his meh profile could be a great opportunity for owners to pocket a steady weekly starter.

Other possible risers: James Paxton (SEA, .321 April xwOBA vs. .275 May xwOBA), Vince Velasquez (PHI, .304/.251), Luis Castillo (CIN, .392/.298)

 

Due to Drop

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (7-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.51 K/9)

We touched on Rick Porcello in Week 4, who at the time held a sparkling 1.40 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. My bear argument against him was that his exit velocity was materially lower than the EV during his 2016 Cy Young campaign. Porcello believers could've countered with his .246 April xwOBA. That measure spiked up to .340 in May to accompany an awful 5.35 ERA and 1.49 month.

Unfortunately, we're not here to bask in glory. But the previous fortunes of his LD%, HR/FB and LOB% have evaporated. For his part, and reasons unbeknownst to me, Porcello has dialed back his sinker usage and is leaning more on a curveball, effectively trading a pitch he's been historically good at for one he's struggled with. Hmm. Not surprisingly, the change in pitch approach has led to higher opponent slugging for every one of his pitches. In May, Porcello's four-seamer is surrendering a 46.2% LD% and .348 ISO. If his adjustments after April were intentional, it might be back to the drawing board.

Porcello's name brand and early-season triumphs may buoy his marketplace value. The seven wins on a powerhouse Red Sox team also helps. But Porcello has settled into an eerily similar resume as 2017's disappointing season. Porcello is worth shopping to owners in need of wins, or any BoSox loyalists turning a blind eye to his melting peripherals.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (1-4, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.37 K/9)

Alex Wood has suffered a more precipitous drop in xwOBA than Porcello. His excellent .248 April xwOBA turned into the league's 85th-worst .349 in May. Unlike Porcello, Wood's May returns were decent (3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), masking the Statcast voice of reason. Wood's 2018 3.20 FIP is actually superior to last year's breakout season (3.32).

Wood is an odd pitcher that has no traditional four-seam fastball, exclusively using a sinker, slider and changeup. As the season's gone on, Wood's increased his sinker usage from 39% to 49%. Velocity-wise, it's remained constant but he's lost some horizontal break. The ISO on the pitch has increased from .194 to .209, modest but possibly meaningful. What is noteworthy to point out is the changeup that he's cut back from 34% to 27% has experienced massive deterioration, experiencing a BAA of .406 and opponent slugging of .625. Either he's lost confidence in the pitch, or a mechanical change has resulted in that pitch becoming a meatball.

We're not arguing that Wood is in for an imminent collapse. But for a guy without a fastball, a worthless changeup can reduce him into a two-pitch pony real quickly. He has the pedigree and recent success to figure things out, but it personally seems difficult to trust. We'll see as the season unfolds, but recognizing the mismatch between his May numbers and xwOBA, Wood is not a desirable roster piece.

Other possible fallers: Gerrit Cole (HOU, .247 April xwOBA vs. .291 May xwOBA), Sean Manaea (OAK, .287/.431), Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, .280/.345)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Isaiah Stewart58 mins ago

Injured Against Boston
Duncan Robinson1 hour ago

Doesn't Return On Monday
Jackson Chourio2 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Anthony Davis2 hours ago

Cleared To Meet Atlanta
Blake Snell2 hours ago

Heading To The Giants
Onyeka Okongwu2 hours ago

To Return On Monday
Bryce McGowens3 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Tyus Jones3 hours ago

Won't Play On Tuesday
Deni Avdija3 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Nick Martinez3 hours ago

To Open The Year In The Rotation
OG Anunoby3 hours ago

Set For Multi-Game Absence
Kyle Kuzma3 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday
Luka Doncic3 hours ago

Considered Probable For Tuesday
Matt McLain3 hours ago

Scratched With Shoulder Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly3 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Season
Kenley Jansen3 hours ago

Scheduled To Make Four More Spring Appearances
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

"In The Mix" For Roster Spot
Rudy Gobert4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Scoot Henderson4 hours ago

Returns To Starting Unit Without Restrictions
Matisse Thybulle4 hours ago

Available Again On Monday
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Lauri Markkanen4 hours ago

Returns To Action On Monday
Alex Caruso4 hours ago

Ready To Roll Monday
Coby White4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Kristaps Porzingis4 hours ago

Returns To Celtics Lineup
Jaylen Brown4 hours ago

Ready To Go On Monday
Jayson Tatum5 hours ago

Won't Play Against Detroit
Teuvo Teravainen5 hours ago

Misses Second Straight Game
Joshua Dobbs5 hours ago

49ers Reach Agreement With Joshua Dobbs
TOR5 hours ago

Mitch Marner To Miss At Least Two More Games
Jacob Markstrom5 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Rico Dowdle5 hours ago

Staying With Cowboys
Mikhail Sergachev5 hours ago

Skates On Monday
Dustin Wolf5 hours ago

Between The Pipes Monday
New Orleans Saints5 hours ago

Saints Expected To Sign Chase Young
Alexander Mattison6 hours ago

Signing With Raiders
DJ LeMahieu7 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Opening Day
Buffalo Bills7 hours ago

Taron Johnson Re-Signs With Bills On Three-Year Deal
José Urquidy7 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Has Forearm Strain, Will Begin On Injured List
Justin Verlander7 hours ago

Expected To Face Hitters "In The Next Day Or Two"
Corey Seager7 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Aaron Judge7 hours ago

Likely To Play In Four Of Final Six Spring Games
Garrett Crochet7 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Nolan Schanuel7 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Leighton Vander Esch Calling It A Career
DJ LeMahieu9 hours ago

Still Pretty Sore
Aaron Judge9 hours ago

To Return On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran9 hours ago

To Begin Season On Injured List
Bryan Battle9 hours ago

Bout Ends in Controversy
Ange Loosa9 hours ago

Fight Ruled A No-Contest After Accidental Eye Poke
Ovince Saint Preux10 hours ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Kennedy Nzechukwu10 hours ago

Suffers Split-Decision Loss To Ovince Saint Preux
Gerald Meerschaert10 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Shohei Ohtani10 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
Bryan Barberena10 hours ago

Submitted In The Second Round
Kyle Manzardo10 hours ago

Sent To Minor-League Camp
Jackson Merrill10 hours ago

Wins Center Field Job
Kenley Jansen10 hours ago

Scratched With Lower-Back Tightness
Byron Buxton10 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Denny Hamlin11 hours ago

Emerges Victorious For Second Bristol Win In A Row
Alexander Mattison11 hours ago

Visiting With Raiders
Dak Prescott12 hours ago

Cowboys Restructure Dak Prescott's Contract
Dmitry Orlov12 hours ago

Collects Four Points In Big Win
Tyler Toffoli12 hours ago

Dominates Against Columbus With Three Points
Lucas Raymond13 hours ago

Pots Pair Of Goals Versus Penguins
Kaz Grala13 hours ago

Finishes 19th At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bo Horvat13 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Brad Keselowski13 hours ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Bristol Motor Speedway
Pavel Buchnevich13 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Ryan Lindgren13 hours ago

Suffers Leg Injury Versus Islanders
Kyle Larson13 hours ago

After 5th at Bristol: "I Hope I Never Have To Run A Race Like That Again"
Chase Elliott14 hours ago

Earns First Top 10 Finish Of 2024
Justin Haley14 hours ago

Earns Best NextGen Short Track Finish for Rick Ware Racing
Ty Gibbs14 hours ago

Has Dominant Day at Bristol but Fades Late
John Hunter Nemechek18 hours ago

Found Speed At Bristol
Chris Buescher19 hours ago

Secures Top 10 At Bristol
Alex Bowman22 hours ago

Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles
Christopher Bell22 hours ago

Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better
Martin Truex Jr24 hours ago

. Matches Career-Best Finish At Bristol
Ryan Blaney24 hours ago

Fades to 16th at Bristol After Handling Struggles
Russell1 day ago

Wilson Still Considered The Starter
William Byron2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Bristol
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Starts 19th At Bristol After Damage In Practice
Justin Haley2 days ago

Scores A Starting Position Of 32nd For Bristol
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Should Compete For The Win At Bristol
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

History Indicates Brad Keselowski Being A Favorable Bristol Play
Joey Logano2 days ago

Should Be Rostered With Caution At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is Tyler Reddick Worth Rostering At Bristol This Week?
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Could Work As A Tournament Play At Bristol
Alexander Nylander2 days ago

Totals Three Points In Saturday's Win
Sebastian Aho2 days ago

Leads Hurricanes To Victory In Toronto
Owen Tippett2 days ago

Delivers Three Assists In High-Scoring Loss
Steven Stamkos2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Four-Point Performance
Nick Schmaltz2 days ago

Records Three Assists In Win Over New Jersey
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Racks Up Five Points In Saturday's Win
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Sinks Islanders With Third Hat Trick
Pannie Kianzad2 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Macy Chiasson2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Isaac Dulgarian2 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss
Christian Rodriguez2 days ago

Overcomes Early Adversity At UFC Vegas 88
Tai Tuivasa2 days ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss
Marcin Tybura2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission
Justin Fields2 days ago

Traded To The Steelers
NHL2 days ago

Lukas Reichel Will Be In The Lineup Sunday
Cale Makar2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Zach Parise2 days ago

Likely To Return Saturday
Michael Gallup2 days ago

Panthers Bringing In Michael Gallup For A Visit
Mike Williams3 days ago

Panthers To Host Mike Williams On A Visit
New York Jets3 days ago

Jets Expected To Sign Tyron Smith
AJ Dillon3 days ago

Officially Re-Signs With Packers
Van Jefferson3 days ago

Steelers Signing Van Jefferson
Jakobi Meyers3 days ago

Raiders Restructure Jakobi Meyers' Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo3 days ago

Rams Agree With Jimmy Garoppolo On One-Year Deal
Gerald Meerschaert3 days ago

To Fight In Main Event Of UFC Vegas 88
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Kennedy Nzechukwu3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Ovince Saint Preux3 days ago

Set For 27th UFC Appearance
Bryan Battle3 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ange Loosa3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 88
San Francisco 49ers3 days ago

De'Vondre Campbell Heading To San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys3 days ago

Leighton Vander Esch Being Cut By Cowboys
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Cowboys Releasing Michael Gallup
Kenny Pickett3 days ago

Steelers Sending Kenny Pickett To Eagles
Pannie Kianzad5 days ago

Looking For Redemption At UFC Vegas 88
Macy Chiasson5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 88
Isaac Dulgarian5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 88
Christiaan Bezuidenhout5 days ago

Looking To Put It All Together At TPC Sawgrass
Eric Cole5 days ago

Rebounding Well In The Sunshine State
Brian Harman5 days ago

Playing The Dark-Horse Role Again At The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

Searching For Answers Thus Far In 2024
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

One Of The Tour's Fastest Risers To Start The New Year
Sam Burns5 days ago

Brings A Stellar Run Of Form Into TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Sungjae Im Trending Up After Arnold Palmer Success
Jason Day5 days ago

Facing Iron Hiccup Heading To The Players
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Brings Strong Form And History To Sawgrass
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Ready For Second Trip To Sawgrass
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Working Toward A Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2024)

The legal tampering period for NFL free agency begins on March 11 at noon EST, so news of signings will be flying in all week. Veterans like Russell Wilson and Jonnu Smith were released before their contracts expired, meaning they got a head start on free agency and have already reached agreements with new organizations.... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Coach Knows Ball: Rome Odunze NFL Draft Film Breakdown of Washington WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Winners and Losers of 2024 NFL Free Agency (Teams)

Well, strap in, folks, because the first week of 2024 NFL Free Agency was a rollercoaster ride. Some teams made power moves while others seemingly snoozed at the switch. The Houston Texans, for instance, came out swinging, pulling off some of the savviest deals that could very well tilt the scales in their favor this... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

A while back, we covered the Next Gen Stats for running backs, including rushing yards over expected and the percentage of plays with eight or more defenders in the box. Check out the running back review of the Next Gen Stats, as it adds a layer to player analysis. We love the advanced stats for... Read More


Keenan Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Keenan Allen Traded To Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Star wide receiver Keenan Allen has been one of the more underrated players in the NFL over the past few years. He spent the first 11 years of his career with the Los Angeles Chargers, playing for the franchise since their days in San Diego. However, the team reportedly asked Allen to take a pay... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Marquise Brown Signs With Chiefs: Fantasy Football Impact

Veteran wide receiver Marquise Brown signed a one-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. Brown hopes to follow JuJu Smith-Schuster’s footprints by playing on a one-year deal with the Chiefs and earning a multi-year big-money contract the following offseason. The former Oklahoma star spent the first three years of his career with the... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Will The Vikings Trade Justin Jefferson? 2024 NFL Outlook

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is one of the top players in the NFL. The superstar was part of an impressive 2020 NFL Draft class. Yet, he was the fifth wide receiver off the board. Jefferson has been a superstar since his rookie year, making three consecutive Pro Bowl teams and All-Pro rosters to... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top Free Agency Fits For Marquise Brown – 2024 Free Agent Outlook

Free agent wide receiver Marquise Brown is one of the more explosive players in the NFL. The veteran wide receiver ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at his Pro Day coming out of Oklahoma. He was a first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft. Brown has spent most of his career as... Read More


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings For 2024 Best Ball Leagues (Tiers 4-9)

We have now entered the process of free agency, which is providing pathways for some wide receivers to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. The player movement that has ensued will also decrease the stock of other receivers whose roles will decrease within their reshaped depth charts. Participation in the best ball draft... Read More


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2024 Best Ball Tight End Sleepers

Top tight ends such as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are bound to put up quality fantasy football numbers weekly, but most tight ends are unpredictable. The top tier of tight ends are reliable for fantasy football purposes, but most tight ends are boom-or-bust type of players. Even though it is hard to hit on... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

D'Andre Swift Signs With Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Newly signed Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has been one of the most promising, but also underperforming running backs across the NFL and the fantasy landscape in recent years. After three injury-riddled seasons in Detroit where he showed flashes of greatness but didn't quite live up to the hype, Swift was traded to the... Read More


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Top 50 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings After the 2024 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Calvin Ridley Signs With Titans: Fantasy Football Impact

The Tennessee Titans made a huge move once NFL free agency officially opened. They signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $50 million fully guaranteed. Ridley was the top receiver on the open market. The Titans swooped in out of left field and signed him to give second-year quarterback Will... Read More