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Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Conference Championship Round (January 28, 2024). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win on Sleeper.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Conference Championship Sunday. The Chiefs take on the Ravens for the AFC title while the Lions battle the 49ers for the NFC crown.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished 8-2 last weekend, bringing our playoff record to 15-6 and our overall prop picks record to 121-86 this season. We’ll look to stay hot with our top prop picks for Sunday’s playoff matchups.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for Sunday’s games on Sleeper DFS.
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Conference Championship Round DFS Prop Picks
Lamar Jackson OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s not overthink this one. Last week against the Texans, Jackson ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns, increasing his playoff average to an astronomical 93.4 rushing yards per game (five career playoff games). He faces off against a Chiefs defense that has shown vulnerability to passing quarterbacks, including giving up 72 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to QB Josh Allen last week.
Jackson has a particular advantage on outside rushes this week, where Kansas City ranks dead last in expected points added per rush allowed and 31st in success rate allowed, per PFF. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing attempts outside the tackles.
The Ravens will need to pull out all the stops to contain Patrick Mahomes. Extending drives with his legs will be the best way for Jackson to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands on Sunday and punch his team’s ticket to the Super Bowl.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards
Second-year RB Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a star for the Chiefs over the second half of the season. He has averaged 90.4 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns over his last five games while garnering attention for his explosive running style.
He has a good shot to continue that recent success this week against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the fifth-most yards before contact on the ground this season. They rarely stack the box, particularly on early downs, meaning there should be a lot of running room for Pacheco to build up steam on Sunday.
Look for the Chiefs to attempt to establish the run early to wear Baltimore’s speedy defense out and set up the play-action passing game for Mahomes.
Nelson Agholor OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
Agholor had a lackluster 2023 campaign, finishing fifth on the team in receiving. He has been more involved in the Ravens offense of late, however, and he has a great opportunity to exceed expectations this week against the Chiefs.
Kansas City deploys man coverage at a top-five rate, which bodes well for Agholor. The 30-year-old has been the Ravens’ top receiver against man coverage, tallying a 20.5% target rate against man (versus 10.1% against zone). He has also seen increased involvement in Baltimore’s offense of late, averaging 3.75 targets and 22.3 receiving yards per game over his last four contests.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop a 23.6% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 23.3 receiving yards. PFF is in line with this pick as well, giving it a strong 70.6% likelihood of going over.
Other Recommendations:
- Christian McCaffrey OVER 34.5 receiving yards
- Josh Reynolds OVER 2.5 receptions
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