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Is Shane Baz a fantasy baseball waiver wire stash? Jarod discusses the fantasy baseball outlook for re-draft leagues for the rest of the 2024 season.
Shane Baz was drafted in the first round of the 2017 Draft, but after working his way to the majors and even tasting success, injuries have delayed his promising young career. We haven't seen him pitch in a big league game since 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
So, should managers be stashing the pitcher in anticipation of his return? What can we expect from him and when will he return to the mound for Tampa Bay?
Let's have a look at the starter's fantasy potential and what he brings to the table to see whether or not this is a stashable fantasy asset.
How High Is Shane Baz's Fantasy Potential?
Shane Baz's ADP was around 220 heading into March, going late in 12-team fantasy drafts. This ADP wasn't much later than the likes of Bryan Woo, Nick Pivetta, and Bryce Miller to give you an idea of the type of production managers were expecting to get out of the righty this season. Baz probably has better strikeout stuff and upside than any of those pitchers, but a delayed start with a potential innings limit figured to cap his true fantasy ceiling, resulting in an ADP lower than he otherwise would have had given a normal workload.
When talking about potential though, he's got the stuff to be a front-line starter, both in reality and in fantasy. He uses a nasty fastball/slider combination on about 77% of his pitches (last time we saw him anyway). The four-seamer averaged 96 mph in 2022 and the slider around 88 mph.
Shane Baz, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/oXtvWkAjyS
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 10, 2022
In 2021 and 2022 over the course of 21 minor league starts (91 2/3 IP) at Double and Triple-A, Baz posted a 37.9% K% with a miserly 4.8% BB% (33.1% K-BB%). The K% dropped in the majors between 2021 and 2022, but was still very good at 28.9% over nine starts (40 1/3 IP) with a 14.2% SwStr%, and the walk rate was still better than average (7.2%). One concerning thing, however, was that in the minors during this period he posted a 0.98 HR/9, but in the majors it jumped to 1.79.
We'll discuss below when we think he'll get a chance again in the majors, but based on when he returns, how deep he'll go in games, and the amount of run support the Rays have been providing (3.96 R/game, 23rd in MLB), it would be unreasonable to expect anything more than a handful of wins for the righty. So for fantasy, look for him to be a pitcher who will help fantasy categories like K, ERA, and WHIP.
When Might Shane Baz Get A Major-League Opportunity?
It was assumed the Rays would be careful with him as he worked his way back from Tommy John, but oblique and elbow injuries in the spring delayed his start even more than anticipated. The 24-year-old made four starts at Triple-A Durham while on the IL, but when he was activated off the IL on May 23, the Rays immediately optioned Baz to the minors, so he'll presumably make a few more starts before the Rays decide on next steps.
He's basically already stretched out, as the last time out he threw 76 pitches. And it isn't like the Rays couldn't use him; they just placed Zach Eflin on the IL on May 20. So the Rays likely want him to work on his command before bringing him back up, as he posted 11 walks and two hit batsmen in a total of 12 innings pitched over his four starts in May.
We'll get a chance to see if he's on the right trajectory after he makes his next start for Triple-A Durham on Tuesday night. The verdict, though, is yes! Shane Baz is worthy of stashing where possible in redraft fantasy leagues, but know he won't be of use for at least a couple more weeks, taking up a valuable bench spot in the meantime. For managers that can spare the spot, Baz will be a solid contributor for the second half of the season when managers need it most.
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