RADIO
If you're reading this then thanks for taking the time to check out a brand new article here at RotoBaller. Last week this article debuted with a mixed bag of results. D'Onta Foreman, Cole Beasley, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Joshua Palmer were solid while Rob Gronkowski, Ezekiel Elliot, and Jerry Jeudy were not.
As someone who writes, edits, and digests a lot of DFS content during the week I often see the same players recommended in article after article across the industry. There are dozens of fantasy football or DFS sites these days and there's no shortage of content to consume. But so many of these articles just recommend the same plays over and over again?
If you want some chalky recommendations, you can check out some other articles on our site or others. And if you're looking for cash game plays, you've come to the wrong place. This article is going to focus on GPP plays only and I will attempt to unearth some potential slate-winning plays that are projected to be low-owned. The goal each week is to find seven players that are projected under 7% ownership on Sunday who have the potential to win you a lot of money. Let's see what we can do. Full disclosure, I ended up with 9 players that I wanted to feature in this article, I hope that's okay!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Pivots
Aaron Rodgers @ Baltimore ($7,500)
Median Projection: 20.5 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 33 DK points
2% Projected Ownership
The fact that Rodgers didn't practice yet again on Thursday is only going to keep people off him this week. He's dealing with a fractured pinky toe but has been playing through the pain, and boy is he locked in right now. In his last three games, he's thrown for ten touchdowns and zero interceptions while piling up 36, 29, and 32 DraftKings points in those games.
Baltimore's defensive rankings are a bit misleading. While they are still the 4th ranked pass DVOA defense, they've dropped all the way to 18th overall and they've been in very poor form of late. In the last two weeks, they've allowed two below-average QBs to beat them (Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger). While the Ravens have a solid 33% pressure rate, they're near the bottom of the league with an 11% sack rate. Rodgers is the kind of guy who thrives against the blitz and these are the types of perceived tough matchups that I like to target elite passers in DFS.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Atlanta ($5,800)
Median Projection: 18.1 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 32.4 DK points
5% Projected Ownership
Jimmy G is making an appearance here for two weeks in a row! He turned in a solid performance last week and led the Niners to a huge win against Cincy by throwing for 296 yards and two scores. Like I predicted, he was forced to throw more than usual and his 41 pass attempts were a season-high.
This week we could see the Niners go back to pounding the football against an inferior Atlanta team. Or maybe not as their lead back Elijah Mitchell is still not practicing and very dicey to play at this point. San Francisco has the second-best matchup of any passing game this week according to my DVOA rankings matchups as they've been the fifth-best passing game in the league this year and are facing the 23rd-ranked Atlanta pass defense. Jimmy has a full complement of weapons in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk (more on him in a minute) at his disposal and I don't see any reason to think he couldn't put up one of his best scores this season in this spot.
Running Back NFL DFS Pivots
Antonio Gibson @ Philadelphia ($6,000)
Median Projection: 14.2 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 26.6 DK points
5% Projected Ownership
One of the best things to do in DFS is to jump on a guy the week after he let everyone else down, right? Gibson was a very chalky play last week against Dallas and busted as he was benched for losing a costly fumble in the third quarter. The Football Team has really no option than to go back to Gibson this week against the Eagles as they have very few other options on offense and Gibson is easily one of their most talented players.
This could end badly, but here's how I see it. Washington is decimated by COVID right now and likely going to start a third-team QB. What do teams do who are starting QBs in which they have little to no confidence? They run the football! And who do backup QBs throw the ball to? Running backs out of the backfield, of course! With J.D. McKissic still not practicing, this could be a situation where Gibson gets the vast majority of the touches and is leaned on to be the offensive catalyst for this team. At this price and potential workload - I'm in.
D'Onta Foreman ($5,200) @ Pittsburgh
Median Projection: 10.7 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 22 DK points
2.5% Projected Ownership
We have another repeat appearance here as Foreman made the article last week. He turned 15 touches into 62 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Jags while Dontrell Hilliard only saw six carries and zero targets. If he's going to be the back who gets the majority of the touches (and goalline carries), and it seems like things are trending that way, then I absolutely love him in this spot this week.
My beloved Steelers have been obliterated on the ground lately allowing 187 yards per game over their last five games. In those games, opposing ball carriers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry and have scored ten rushing touchdowns! I wish I had more faith in this Steeler defense to right the ship, but I think Tennesse is the better team upfront and they will look to exert their will by running the ball down Pittsburgh's throat - which has proven to be a successful formula this season.
Tony Pollard ($5,800) @ New York Giants
Median Projection: 10.5 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 22.4 DK points
2.8% Projected Ownership
So Zeke didn't work out last week for us, even though Pollard didn't play. The Cowboys didn't load up Zeke with touches, instead, they just handed off Pollard's workload to Corey Clement (13 carries). With Pollard looking ready to return and the Cowboys seemingly committed to managing Zeke's workload, I'm much more interested in Pollard at lower ownership and a reduced price.
The matchup for Dallas runners is elite as the Giants have been gashed on the ground this season. I expect the Cowboys to play from in front and focus on establishing the running game. This game script sets up really well for Pollard, who could be leaned on a lot in the closing quarter if the Cowboys are well out in front and we know he's a dynamic playmaker who can take a toss or a swing pass to the house.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Pivots
Chase Claypool vs. Tennessee ($5,900)
Median Projection: 12.1 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 26.5 DK points
1% Projected Ownership
You have to take some of this projected ownership with a grain of salt. I would be amazed and thrilled to see Claypool at 1% come Sunday, but anything in single-digits is great for any of these players and it's easy to get leverage on the field by doubling or tripling your exposure.
Regardless of how you feel about Claypool as a player (he caught so much heat after that Vikings game) the fact remains that he is a big, athletic, talented playmaker. And the Steelers need him to make plays opposite Diontae Johnson as defenses are keying on him and stacking the box to shut down Najee Harris and the run game.
Claypool has caught only one touchdown this season, but he continues to be targeted downfield by Big Ben and one of his strengths is being able to stretch the field by running deep routes (average depth of target of 12.8 yards this season) and then going up and getting jump balls against smaller defensive backs. He will likely match up with Buster Skrine, who has been rather poor in coverage this season and is only 5'9" while Claypool is 6'4".
Brandon Aiyuk vs. Atlanta ($6,300)
Median Projection: 10.88 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 22.5 DK points
1.5% Projected Ownership
I'm blown away by this projection and I'm really excited for the chance to play Aiyuk this cheap and low-owned this week. The one week where Aiyuk was chalky, was the week he busted against the Seahawks with only 8.5 DK points. He's had some excellent performances over the second half of the season and his role in this offense isn't going away. Deebo Samuel is being used more in the running game at this point, which means we are seeing Aiyuk with a steadily increasing target share in the passing game.
Aiyuk had a season-high 10 targets last week and had six catches for 62 yards and the game-winning touchdown. He has an elite matchup here against Fabian Moreau and a really bad Atlanta secondary. Most people will play George Kittle this week (as they should, he's a great play) but Aiyuk has similar upside for 1200 dollars less and a fraction of the ownership. Make your Niners' stack really unique and play Garoppolo with both Aiyuk and Kittle - why not?
Nico Collins @ Jacksonville ($3,500)
Median Projection: 7.7 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 15.6 DK points
2% Projected Ownership
The move to Davis Mills at QB proved to be a positive development for Collins and Brandin Cooks as both saw double-digit targets and had productive outings last week against Seattle. Collins had his best performance of the season and a lot of folks have been waiting for him to break out this year. He's been dogged by injuries and a victim of some very poor quarterback play, but this week could be a big week for Houston and their passing game as they face one of the worst secondaries in the league in Jacksonville.
At this price, I'm definitely interested in Collins as a cheap pivot off his teammate Brandin Cooks, who should be a lot more popular on Sunday. If you need a punt to fill out your lineups, consider Collins here at much lower ownership than Gabriel Davis who is in the same price range.
Tight End NFL DFS Pivots
Dawson Knox vs. Carolina ($5,100)
Median Projection: 10.5 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 22 DK points
5.2% Projected Ownership
Knox helped me cash some lineups last week and I'm looking his way again this week. He pulled in seven of nine targets for 60 yards and a score and now has double-digit DK points in three of his last four. The Bills are without Emmanuel Sanders this week, so we could see Knox, Beasley, and Gabriel Davis all see increased roles in the passing game for Buffalo. Knox now has eight touchdowns this season and the Bills seem to be making an emphasis on getting him more involved than ever before - even throwing him some screen passes and designing plays where he runs high-quality routes.
There aren't that many tight ends with the type of upside that Knox brings to the table and the savings of 2400 from Kittle is significant. I expect the masses to flock to Gabriel Davis at 3700 this week, leaving Knox the lowest-owned Bills pass-catcher.
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