RADIO
Lucas Glover would dominate Harry Potter in quidditch the way he is riding that broomstick putter of his lately. His ball striking continues to remain hotter than Memphis itself, which had a heat index of 111 today.
Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth has Einstein turning in his grave, as he defies all logic-gaining strokes on the field in R2 despite losing -3.2 strokes on approach today. Spieth does not need a broomstick to produce magic, he just needs a wedge and that trusty rusty putter in his hand to rescue any round that goes rogue on him. Tomorrow will be tantalizing viewing, with some weird weather looming.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Weather & Tee Times
Tee times will be in threesomes going off the first tee only. There looks to be some chaotic weather around 10 AM with wind changing direction and thunderstorms which, if the players have to play through, could impact their scores negatively. Tee times after 11 AM, which are the more owned leaders, will most likely have the best conditions to play in. We may have to target more of those golfers than our ownership appetite may feel up to.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: "Jon Rahm shot over par at the Open and then finished T2. He may be too far back to catch the pedigree of golfers 8 shots ahead of him, but he has a never-say-die attitude that will see him bring his very best tomorrow, despite how poorly he played today. We get a major ownership discount on the second-best projected golfer for R2 after his clunker today, but rest assured that the Tour's leading birdie maker will be looking to go low tomorrow and charge up that leaderboard." - R2 writeup which we are going to stick with going into R3 as Rahm is due for a LOW round.
Other options: Xander Schauffele
$9,000+
Favorite play: "Patrick Cantlay is the second-best birdie maker on tour and can pop with his putter at seemingly any moment. He got off to a slow start today at -2 but at a sub $10,000 price tag, he could be the leading points scorer in R2 if he plays to his potential." - R2 writeup, just like Rahm, who we are waiting for a monster round from.
Other options: Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Tyrrell Hatton is capable of going very low, as his ball striking and spike putting baselines are both very impressive. If he can bring a positive attitude to the course tomorrow, watch out for his R3 scoring, which has been scintillating this year.
Other options: Jason Day, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama
$7,000+
Favorite play: Aaron Rai is going to be rather low owned and seems like he has found a little bit of form this week, which would have been very handy the last two weeks we rostered him in weeklongs. His accuracy off the tee is going to be very useful if they continue to play lift clean and place. We have also seen Rai go nuclear on the ball striking front, which has seen him at the top of the first-round leaderboard multiple times.
Other options: Russell Henley, Keagan Bradley, Stephan Jaeger, Si Woo Kim, Sahith Theegala
$6,000+
Favorite play: Nick Taylor LOVES a Saturday round of golf. His R3 scoring average is not a typo, he has been insane on Saturdays this year and at this price and lack of ownership, we will be rostering Nick Taylor in A LOT of our lineups.
Other options: Sam Ryder, Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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