RADIO
As expected, the talented wave that headed to Pebble Beach for R2 had a feast. Only two of the 11 best fantasy rounds came at Spyglass, which mostly had to do with the lack of talent on that course struggling, while the handful of stars playing Spyglass really struggled as well (Collin, Max, Xander). Thomas Detry shot -2 in R2, which is enough to hold onto a share of the lead. If history repeats itself, we can expect Detry to eject himself from contention at some point during the next two rounds, with Aberg (-0.12) not far behind Detry (-0.22) in average R3 strokes gained.
While the sands of time slipped slowly through the Spyglass, the Pebbles were rocking and rolling on a course just a few miles away, but with scores that seemed worlds apart. Scottie Scheffler shot -8 and Nicolai Hojgaard -7 alongside Ludvig Aberg. Golf can be an immensely frustrating sport to predict, as Aberg's wedge play is not up to par for the demands of Pebble Beach. Yet, he shot the second-lowest round of the day while gaining +4.36 strokes in the short game department.... sigh ... eye roll ... pluck remaining hair on left eyebrow out. Any idea who we will be fading in R3?
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Round 2 Winner
Round 2 Most Points
Round 2 Most Ownership
Weather & Strategy
This is easily some of the best weather we have seen this week. Guys completely off the radar are going to fly up the leaderboard. We need to try to figure out who they are so that we can have low-owned gems in our lineups. The majority of the guys in our player pool will not need to be in much more than 35% of our lineups to get double exposure on the field.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Rory McIlroy has the best Round 3 scoring average in the field... by a long shot! He has played horrifically by his standards so far, but I would not be surprised to see him shoot the round of the day tomorrow and give himself a chance to shoot another low one and hopefully get in the mix late on Sunday. He could also completely suck it up again, but to get 2X the field, you only will have to play him in 20% of your lineups. I will likely aim to have him in 1/3 of my lineups.
Other options: Xander Schauffele (aka The Back Door King)
$9,000+
Favorite play: "Justin Thomas is back to playing incredible golf again. He is striking the ball great again and his putter seems to have become a weapon instead of holding him back. We know he can make birdies in bunches and I feel comfortable playing him until R4, where he has not quite managed to keep his foot on the gas in recent performances. A lot to like about JT nowadays." - R2 writeup ... if it ain't broken, don't fix it. He will be the only chalky-chalky play we roll out there, because listening to Sirius XM today at work, it sounded like he lipped out a lot of putts. If those start to roll in tomorrow, it'll be worth sticking with a relatively cheap JT.
Other options: Max Homa never seems to give up on a tournament and either R3 or R4 he is going to have a round where he gets on a run of birdies. With R4 not a certainty due to weather, we will be looking to get that round out of Max in R3.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Tommy Fleetwood just straight up has not had his stuff this week. He also owns two 63s in US Opens, going out early in the morning when the pressure is not on and playing to his potential, which has been extremely limited by his inability to function at full capacity under pressure on US soil so far. He basically has no shot at winning this event, but he does have the fourth-best R3 scoring average in the field. Golf Jesus will be looking to turn our water into wine, which we will use to celebrate a big win when Rory, JT, Tommy, and Monty go off tomorrow.
Other options: Sam Burns birdied six of his last 12 holes in R1 after playing the first six two over par. When Sam is playing well, we want to keep going back to him and he shouldn't be that highly owned. As he showed today and at the AMEX when he tied the course record, he can go low. Let's see what he can get up to in R2"- R2 writeup for favorite play getting pasted here as he would have remained so had golf Jesus not played so poorly through two rounds, making him an appealing contrarian play.
Other options: Byeong Hun An, Hideki Matsuyama
$7,000+
Favorite play: "Adam Scott is averaging +2.6 strokes gained in his six rounds of golf around Pebble Beach Golf Links. They go all the way back to 2019 and 2018, but the way his recent form has been across the pond and how his game translates to what Pebble demands on approach. He is a great putter on Poa and he will be the highest rostered golfer in my player pool." - R2 writeup. He reduced that average slightly today, gaining +2.3 strokes in R2 at Pebble, but he had a streak and an eagle to really bolster his fantasy score with the 18th-best SG round turning into the sixth-best fantasy points round.
Other options: Sahith Theegala, Eric Cole, Kevin Yu, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Taylor Montgomery. Sepp Straka, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$6,000+
Favorite play: Maverick McNealy is back on Pebble, a course he has had immense success on in the past. He is completely out of contention, no longer playing alongside Condoleezza Rice in the pro-am either. Two things that typically keep Mav from playing his best golf ... leaderboard pressure and expectations ... with both out the window, he could shoot the round of the day if his putter cooperates.
Other options: Seamus Power, Peter Malnati
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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