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As fantasy football draft season approaches, the RotoBaller staff couldn't wait to get things started. In what has become an annual tradition, we gathered 12 analysts to take part in a mock draft in order to see where they value players and go about roster construction.
This draft was conducted as a full PPR league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, and 7 BENCH spots. No defenses or kickers were used. The full draft board can be viewed on Sleeper right here.
Now, let's peruse the draft board and determine where the value lies.
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PPR Mock Draft
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Trends and Anomalies
Think you don't need to grab an RB early this year? Think again. In this draft, 10 of the first-round picks were running backs and 16 RBs had been selected after two rounds. This will be commonplace across the fantasy landscape.
Only one drafter, @journalistjosh, did anything resembling a ZeroRB start. He didn't grab his first RB until the 5/6 turn, opting for a starting duo of Raheem Mostert and Mike Davis. His strategy was to be the first to take a receiver and quarterback while also drafting George Kittle to gain an advantage at every other position. Zig when they zag, right?
The late-QB strategy was employed by three participants, most notably @The_PreSnapRead who waited until the final two rounds to grab a pair of passers. As if that wasn't risky enough, his picks were pure risk-reward with rookie Trey Lance and second-year pro Tua Tagovailoa. Either one could wind up being this year's version of Justin Herbert or they could both disappoint. There were several starting quarterbacks left undrafted, so it's not as if his team would be completely lost if neither QB pans out. It's just unusual to see that type of strategy used by a team that had the first overall pick when less risk was needed.
The first couple of tiers of tight ends were evenly distributed and in line with their ADP for the most part. Only @GbridgfordNFL opted to punt the position by waiting until round 13 to take his only tight end. Cole Kmet is a popular sleeper and breakout candidate but still must contend with Jimmy Graham on the roster and will adjust to a new quarterback (or two) as well. Streaming TE or playing waivers to grab a player like Logan Thomas or Robert Tonyan from 2020 could pay off but it's also a bit of a headache during the season.
Fell Too Far
Adam Thielen in round six feels like robbery for @scotteTheKing. Although Justin Jefferson is the new toast of Skol town, Thielen basically matched him in snap and target share. Jefferson went for far more yardage but Thielen doubled his touchdown production. Yards are generally more sustainable than TDs but in this case things might not change. Thielen saw 20 end-zone targets compared to eight for Jefferson. He'll continue to be the primary option when it's time to score and a 1,000-yard season is well in reach if he plays a full 17 games, which is still weird to say.
Apparently, the seventh round is where the value lies at running back. Damien Harris is basically J.K. Dobbins in a Pats uniform. For that reason, many are rightfully scared away from him. This isn't your father's Patriots, though. Tom Brady isn't around to sling it and this is a team that ran the ball with the second-highest frequency last season, behind only Baltimore. Harris has the RB1 job on lock (for the time being) and shouldn't have to worry much about Sony Michel or Rhamondre Stevenson. That counts for something, right?
Live reaction to Damien Harris being named the pats “surefire” rb1 pic.twitter.com/RrN25VMu04
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) July 13, 2021
Harris' upside is capped by a lack of involvement as a receiver but if he can churn out five yards per carry like he did in 2020 and gets the ball 15+ times a game, that's a nice floor to have. Once Cam Newton gives way to Mac Jones, the goal-line touches will increase for Harris too.
A rookie like Michael Carter or Trey Sermon could be a league-winner this year, possibly both. My money is on Sermon but both are smart picks at this stage of the draft when all the "starting" running backs are gone. The RB stable put together by @_PhilClark is probably the best of this draft with a top-three of Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, and Trey Sermon.
Getting Curtis Samuel at the 8.4 pick doesn't bring goosebumps on draft day but it could wind up being a screaming value. Samuel went for 1,051 scrimmage yards on 118 touches as the WR3 in Carolina. Now, he goes to Washington as the WR2 under the coach who drafted him in Ron Rivera. He'll get touches all over the field, including the backfield.
Reached Too Soon
We might excuse @AdamKoffler for taking Miles Sanders seeing as how he is an Eagles fan. That would explain taking him as his RB1 after going with Travis Kelce and Davante Adams in the first two rounds. Sanders ended the season strong, averaging 103.4 scrimmage yards and a touchdown per game in Weeks 14-16. That made him a fantasy playoff hero but that might not be repeated in 2021. The new offense will rotate backs more frequently, especially now that the team has brought in competition. As far as roster construction, the selection of Chris Carson and Myles Gaskin in the next two rounds made up for this pick in a solid way but the point remains that Sanders isn't worth a third-round pick.
I've said this before and I'll say it again: I love Rashod Bateman as a prospect and playmaker but hate his situation for fantasy. He is joining the offense that ranked dead last in passing play percentage at 44.96%. There will be moments where he flashes his run-after-catch ability and strong hands in traffic but those will be few and far between. It's hard to justify taking a player like that ahead of Mike Williams or DeVante Parker.
To handcuff or not to handcuff your RB - that is the question. The answer is: no and don't. Many fantasy managers feel clever by stashing guys like Alexander Mattison until they get the opportunity to shine and do absolutely nothing or sit on the bench for 15 games and contribute absolutely nothing. Seeing @The_PreSnapRead take Chuba Hubbard and then Mattison in consecutive picks late in the draft after already selecting A.J. Dillon in round nine is maddening because that is potentially three RB spots occupied with no production. Hubbard is almost guaranteed not to see the field as long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy. Taking a chance on one high-end handcuff is fine but not two, much less three in the same draft.
Winning Roster Construction
Taking my own team out of the running for king of this draft, the roster that appears strongest from top to bottom is that of @CoachRiggall. No team took a true "Modified RB" approach which favors securing one high-end RB in the first two rounds and loading up on receivers, possibly even a tight end, the next few rounds before taking your RB2. This was the closest to it, though.
Rigs took Jonathan Taylor at the 1.3 and then landed two potential top-five receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Michael Thomas. This allowed him to pivot back to RB and take two more upside picks in Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams before grabbing a solid WR3 in Jerry Jeudy. It doesn't hurt that Dallas Goedert is my favorite mid-round TE target this year.
The best part is the QB duo that pairs a high-floor passer like Joe Burrow with a high-ceiling player like Jalen Hurts. You don't need to pull the trigger early at quarterback to get maximum production on a weekly basis. You have to take what the draft gives you and try to maximize production at each position whether it be through a single, elite player or a combination.
No team in this draft came away with major holes on the roster and I simply could not find any egregious reach picks or head-scratchers. When drafting with a sharp group like this, it's tougher to build the team you really want but you always have to be prepared to take what the draft gives you rather than setting your mind on certain players or positions.
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