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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 18 of 2024. His QB lineups advice for Week 18 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
A majority of Fantasy Championships were won and lost last week. However, if you are a degenerate like myself that means your championship aspirations live on for one more week. Navigating through an 18-week season is difficult. Many teams and players have very little to gain this week. Then again, some do.
One quarterback owns all the Infinity Stones. One player holds the fate of three franchises' playoff hopes, with none of those teams being his. That man is Carson Wentz. If the Broncos beat the Chiefs, they are in, and the Bengals and the Dolphins would then be eliminated. If Wentz snaps his fingers, then Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa would have a chance to punch their ticket to the NFL playoffs.
So, which quarterbacks have something to play for, and which ones are simply going through the motions? That's where I come in: to help fantasy managers with those difficult start-and-sit questions at the quarterback position with our Week 18 starts and sits.
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Week 18 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
With the Chiefs already locked in as the top seed in the AFC, they have very little to prove this week. Expectations are that the Chiefs will end up resting many starters on both sides of the ball.
That's excellent news for Bo Nix and the Broncos. With the Chiefs likely to trot out a roster that resembles Week 3 of the preseason, Nix will have an excellent opportunity to pad his stats. This season the rookie has completed 350 of his 538 passing attempts for 3,454 yards while tossing 25 touchdown passes. That production helped him finish as the overall QB9 in fantasy with 294.7 fantasy points and an average of 18.4 per contest.
Since Week 5, Nix has averaged 20.4 fantasy points and produced 17 or more fantasy points in seven of his 12 starts. Last week, Nix was making some big-time throws against the Bengals. First, we saw a 51-yard dime to Marvin Mims Jr. to tie the game at 17. Then again to Mims, this time on fourth-and-one from the 24-yard line with 14 seconds remaining to send the game to overtime.
Game on the line, 40 yards downfield, off one foot falling backwards. Throw of the year candidate from Bo Nix pic.twitter.com/9MSpr1rqAN
— Football Digest (@FoootballDigest) December 29, 2024
Nix may not win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but it's safe to say that the Broncos have their quarterback of the future.
Sam Darnold - QB, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Get your popcorn ready for this one. The winner not only wins the NFC North crown but also locks up the NFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
One thing we know is that both Sam Darnold and Jared Goff can light up a scoreboard. Another thing we are all too aware of is that both the Lions and Vikings secondaries have been susceptible to the pass this season, making this game projected to be an old-fashioned shootout.
Darnold heads to Detroit this week already locked in as the QB7 in fantasy, doing so with six 19-point plus fantasy performances over his final seven contests. Since Week 11, only Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels have produced more fantasy points, as Darnold has tossed 18 touchdown passes in those seven games.
Sam Darnold is balling right now.
Fake pump draw, climb in pocket just enough, & fires a dime for TD.
Can we stop saying what Sam Darnold used to be & realize he’s playing like a Top 7 QB this year.
pic.twitter.com/4Wy8WCOth0— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) December 29, 2024
Darnold gets the nod over Goff in this one, as the Lions have surrendered a league-high 26.18 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks. In those four weeks, Detroit has yielded 1,158 passing yards and eight touchdown passes and has been unable to force an interception. They have also allowed 164 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores, but that will not factor into Darnold's stat line this week.
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Heading into Week 18, Mayfield sits sixth in passer rating (103.5), third in completion percentage (70.9), and eighth in yards per attempt (7.7). Each one of those categories has a bonus of $500,000 attached to them whether he can finish in the top 5 in the NFC or top 10 in the NFL. While Mayfield is looking to put some coin in Mike Evans's pocket, he's also got some money on the table this week.
Last week, Mayfield exploded for five touchdowns, completing 27 of 32 passes for 359 yards, leading many fantasy managers to the promised land. Here's the thing: he's been doing it all season. Between Weeks 1-8, Mayfield orchestrated six games in which he produced 23 or more fantasy points and followed that up by finishing with 18 or more fantasy points in five of his last six outings.
The player with the most passing TDs since 2023
Baker Mayfield - 67 👀 pic.twitter.com/LspbTQXnlT
— PFF (@PFF) December 30, 2024
I don't see how the Saints can stop Mayfield this week as they have allowed 852 passing yards and five touchdown passes over the last four weeks, which has worked out to an average of 16.72 fantasy points against, per game, to the quarterback position.
I'm sure Carolina is happy with Bryce Young, but there was a time (two years ago) when both Mayfield and Darnold were Panthers.
This was 2 years ago pic.twitter.com/6aZ6BY7vXp
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 30, 2024
Week 18 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Matthew Stafford - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
They don't ask how; they ask how many. Matthew Stafford has now won three consecutive games for the first time in his career in which he has failed to throw for more than 200 yards. The Rams have now won five successive contests during which Stafford has topped 200 yards just once.
It's not just the yards that haven't been there. In the last three games, Stafford has just one touchdown pass and an interception to go with those 459 passing yards. That averages out to 8.1 fantasy points per game, QB37. Tanner McKee, Desmond Ridder, Spencer Rattler, and Tyrod Taylor all had games in which they topped 10 fantasy points.
During the season, Seattle is allowing 15.99 fantasy points per contest to opposing quarterbacks, so Stafford's chances of going off are unlikely. Stafford doesn't care much, as long as the Rams can get that sixth straight victory and the NFC South Divisional crown.
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Miami plays at the same time as the Broncos, so you best believe there will be some scoreboard-watching on Sunday afternoon. But will Tua Tagovailoa play, or won't he?
Tagovailoa is going to push to play this week. Management made the call to sit him last week after the pain in his hip would not subside. But, to play the devil's advocate, should the Dolphins return to Tyler Huntley this week rather than put their playoff hopes on a less than 100% Tagovailoa?
Against the Browns, Huntley finished with 24.2 fantasy points. Huntley completed 22 of 26 (84.6%) passes for 225 yards, throwing a touchdown pass to Jonnu Smith and running another one in himself. In December, Tagovailoa completed 69% of his passes, averaging 247 yards per game, but has as many interceptions, four, as touchdown passes. Historically, Miami and Tagovailoa have underperformed in the cold weather. A trip to New York is all the more reason to fade Tagovailoa this week.
Michael Penix Jr. - QB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
On paper, this looks like Michael Penix Jr.'s best opportunity to be a fantasy contributor. The Panthers are allowing 20.18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, having surrendered 3,700 passing yards and a league-high 33 touchdown passes.
Here's the thing. With the Falcons' playoff chances laying in the balance, you can either put those hopes in Penix or you can put them in Bijan Robinson, who faces a Panthers team that is allowing 29.65 fantasy points per game to the running back position, the most in the NFL. Carolina has allowed running backs to produce 2,884 total yards of offense along with 19 touchdowns.
There will be a time for Penix to lead this team, but this week, the path of least resistance involves Robinson and the run game.
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