We are a few days away from the beginning of the fantasy football season. Soon you will be pumping your fist as touchdowns are scored, as well as rolling out very creative strings of expletives as RedZone shows your wide receiver being overthrown on a fade route. Can’t you feel it?

You will never be able to tiptoe around all of the disappointments, but let’s try to parse out some recent changes in players’ stocks to help you be the smartest owner in the room. The last round of roster cuts, some injury updates, certain Week 1 roles being handed down, and one particular Dallas-Seattle trade has us scrambling to move some pieces around.

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Pre-Week 1 Fantasy Football Risers

Arian Foster – RB, Houston Texans

It was recently reported by Ian Rapaport that Foster is no longer expected to be placed on the IR/designated-to-return list, and that he could be back in a month. Aaron Wilson tweeted out that his progression is going well, and a late September return is a possibility. The hype is real. Now you’re all smart owners (obviously, you come to this site) so you know that rehabbing from injuries can always hit a snag, but the payoff with a healthy Arian Foster is huge. Heck, even an 80% Foster is worth that Sunday morning headache of refreshing Twitter for the latest news on his questionable status. If you were able to get Foster in Round 5 on, you should feel pretty darn good. Right now his price tag is checking in at 4.04 according to FantasyFootballCalculator. I’d still feel good about buying in the fourth. He’s a top talent when he’s on the field, and if you can prepare with some Plan B type running backs to plug in until he’s ready, the dividends will be plentiful. Odds are that his current owners knew what they were getting into by drafting him and are holding, but if they are wavering at all then pry away.

Christine Michael – RB, Dallas Cowboys

You may have heard Michael was just traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a conditional seventh round draft pick. He is described as a physical freak, with lots of raw talent that just hasn’t come together yet. He now gets to join the committee of Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden behind the Cowboys’ insane offensive line. This more than qualifies him as a “riser”. Clearly neither Randle nor McFadden pulled away with the job, which shows one of two things. Either both of them don’t have the talent to hold down the job, or the Cowboys are dedicated to a committee approach. I wager it is latter, and now Michael gets an opportunity to show what he can do. Michael probably won’t turn into a RB1 type, but if he shines early on, who is to say he doesn’t become the head of the committee or the goal line guy? Considering he probably went undrafted in your league, you go snag him now and roll those dice.

LeGarrette Blount – RB, New England Patriots

The fairly surprising news of Jonas Gray being cut by New England gives Blount a little bump as well. With all of the other mouths to feed in New England, coupled with Belichick’s penchant for playing “Running Back Russian Roulette”, Blount’s stock had been tumbling a bit. Most would still have pegged him as the guy who ends up with the best numbers at the end of the season for the Pats, but you wouldn’t have heard much conviction there. Don’t get me wrong, James White and Brandon Bolden are still there and will see the field, but this is definitely good news for Blount.

Dion Lewis –RB, New England Patriots

Speaking of the Patriots, Lewis has been given the reins to the passing downs in their backfield. He appears to be next in line with this job, following in the footsteps of Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen. Those guys provided some nice, albeit inconsistent, value. Then again, if you expect consistency from New England you’re going to have a bad time. If you’re in a PPR league, Lewis just vaulted up the rankings, adjust accordingly.

Other risers to be aware of:

• Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) as he gets the nod in Week 1 with Duke Johnson Jr. still fighting through concussion protocol.
• Harry Douglas (WR, TEN) and Dorial Beckham-Green (TEN) as Hakeem Nicks was cut.
• Sam Bradford (QB, PHI) because he actually survived preseason.
• Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) as owners come around to realize he is Dalton’s #2.

 

Pre-Week 1 Fantasy Football Fallers

Well, fantasy football is pretty much a zero sum game. All of those guys I just mentioned as rising up, means someone else took a tumble. I’ll be brief with a few of these, and then a couple of guys who are falling outside of the previous situations.

Joseph Randle – RB, Dallas Cowboys

Randle is still being drafted around the third and fourth rounds, he is still being looked at as the guy the Cowboys will feed the most, and I don’t see how anyone can be confident in that anymore. Let alone third/fourth round confident. These are not the rounds you want to be taking your risky shots in, especially not when they just traded for another running back. To make things even dicier, Darren McFadden is listed as the RB1 in most Cowboys depth charts. Only time will tell how this all shakes out.

Alfred Blue – RB, Houston Texans

Blue saw his stock shoot up from the ninth and tenth rounds in early August all the way to the sixth round. Now with the Foster news, owners are starting to cool their jets about him, which may also be due to exposure from Hard Knocks. Bill O’Brien’s enthusiastic speech about Chris Polk made waves. The truth is, Alfred Blue hasn’t done anything special. He averaged 3.1 yards per attempt on rushes. That is the opposite of special. The only thing propping up his value was opportunity, but that just got diminished pretty handily compared to the original reports of Foster being out until October or November. Nothing is trending in the right direction for Blue, be wary.

Todd Gurley – RB, St. Louis Rams

Gurley is a strange case. If I didn’t know his injury situation and I just blindly went into draft rooms, I’d think he was just another untested rookie in a “meh” Rams offense with Tre Mason digging into his reps. His fourth/fifth round ADP didn’t seem to reflect an attitude of “oh man this guy is coming off of a major injury (torn ACL last November) and isn’t going to be ready to shoulder the load until midseason”. However, now that sentiment seems to be sinking in. This ESPN report by Nick Wagoner has been generating a lot of discussion, as it speculates that he won’t really have much of a role in this offense until after the Rams’ bye week (Week Six). People are swayed way too easily by preseason ranks and ADP, and the disparity between those and what Gurley can actually provide is way too big. If you want to draft Gurley as a guy who can help you down the stretch, you do that, but odds are someone will have him pegged a lot higher just based on default rankings. Let them.

Alshon Jeffery –WR, Chicago Bears

Jeffery has seen a bit of dip recently as well. An ambiguous calf injury that John Fox and the Bears’ staff are mum on have some owners rattled. He had been missing in action for a while, until he was out with his gloves on playing catch before Chicago’s preseason finale. A wide receiver with an injured leg is trouble, and they played Kevin White’s shin injury with a similar approach, but if Jeffery was out there with the team before the finale then it seems like he is getting healthy at the right time. Jeffery isn’t a rookie or mediocre talent, he doesn’t have a new quarterback, and he shouldn’t have any trouble being a part of John Fox and Adam Gase’s new system without playing this preseason. No one knows exactly what the cards hold, but if Jeffery actually required some serious treatment, one can’t imagine why he’d go out and play catch instead of getting treatment. This is one “fall” that looks like it’d be good to capitalize on before his talent can outshine this preseason worry.

Other fallers to be aware of:

• Brandon LaFell (WR, NE) as he was placed on the PUP list.
• Melvin Gordon (RB, SD) as the news of the committee being utilized in San Diego has truly sunk in.

 

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