X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Post-Hype Pitchers Set to Breakout

Post-hype pitchers are former top prospects who have struggled to find success in the Major Leagues. These are players who were once viewed as intriguing fantasy assets, but now have discounted prices due to the slow starts to their respective careers. 

The three pitchers in this list have gained value either due to improved team context or decreased impact of innings limits due to the upcoming shortened season. Each of these pitchers has some faults, but their strengths demonstrate some untapped potential.

These young hurlers possess electric stuff, which makes them so appealing to fantasy owners. In addition, they are generally available past pick 200 in your fantasy draft. Let’s investigate why these three post-hype pitchers are set to breakout.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Dylan Bundy - SP, Angels

2019 stats

SIERA K-BB% SwStr% GB% HR/9 Z-Contact% xwOBAcon
4.54 14.8 12.8 41.5 1.61 85.9 0.362

As a former consensus top pitching prospect (ranked 2nd on MLB.com’s 2013 preseason Top 100 prospects), Bundy remains an intriguing asset as he enters his age-27 season. While he is coming off another disappointing season, posting a 4.79 ERA due to a bloated 1.61 HR/9 (fourth-worst in MLB), it’s encouraging to see his ability to induce swinging-strikes (12.8 SwStr%, ranked 16th in MLB) and limit contact in the zone (85.9 Z-Contact%, ranked 29th in MLB).

Let’s take a look at his pitch mix to determine the causes of his home run struggles, swinging-strike ability, and zone contact:

Pitch mix 

Four-Seamer Slider Changeup Curveball Sinker
42.4 Usage% 22.8 Usage% 17.4 Usage% 9.9 Usage% 7.5 Usage%
9.7 Barrel% 4.8 Barrel% 2.7 Barrel% 2.7 Barrel% 2.2 Barrel%
7.9 SwStr% 22.3 SwStr% 18.0 SwStr% 9.0 SwStr% 5.7 SwStr%
24.6 GB% 52.4 GB% 56.3 GB% 51.4 GB% 53.3 GB%
-21.7 pitchVAL 8.8 pitchVAL 4.4 pitchVAL 0.4 pitchVAL 2.5 pitchVAL
.407 xwOBAcon .314 xwOBAcon .327 xwOBAcon .297 xwOBAcon .321 xwOBAcon

Bundy’s four-seamer remains the weakest pitch in his arsenal. Sitting at an average of 91.1 MPH, the pitch got pounded, grading poorly with a 9.7 Barrel%, -21.7 pitchVAL, and .407 xwOBAcon. This explains the high home run rate that inflated Bundy’s ERA.

The good news is that Bundy possesses some nasty secondary pitches, with a wipe-out slider (22.3 SwStr%) and solid curveball (.297 xwOBAcon). He also can throw his offspeed stuff to induce weak contact, as his changeup (2.7 Barrel%) and sinker (53.3 GB%) were effective in this regard. In order to take the next step in his growth as a pitcher, Bundy would be wise to decrease his four-seamer usage and start throwing his secondary pitches more often. He really needs to make better use of his nasty slider.

2020 outlook

Bundy was dealt to the Angels this offseason, which bodes well for his 2020 outlook. For one, the Orioles have a history of mismanaging young pitchers. Former top prospects like Jake Arrieta were able to flourish on their new teams.

Bundy also gets a park upgrade by leaving the bandbox of Camden Yards for the friendlier confines of Angel Stadium. He’ll also have a strong defense behind him, with shortstop Andrelton Simmons and third baseman Anthony Rendon in the infield, as well as an athletic outfield that features Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and potential call-up Jo Adell

Bundy has the right environment to breakout in his fifth full season. He’ll be pitching for a contending team with a strong defense and he’ll have no innings restrictions, having thrown 160+ innings for three consecutive seasons. It’s also likely that the Angels acquired him because they were cognizant of his untapped potential with changes to his pitch mix, so we can project more sliders. Expect a career year for Bundy in 2020.

 

Mitch Keller - SP, Pirates

2019 stats

SIERA K-BB% SwStr% GB% HR/9 Z-Contact% xwOBAcon
3.78 21.6 11.8 39.2 1.13 87.4 0.412

Keller came into the 2019 season with high expectations, ranking as the 19th-best prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100. He failed to perform to these lofty standards, posting a 7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 48 innings. However, we can attribute this to bad luck and small sample size.

Keller’s 3.78 SIERA is considerably lower than his ERA, resulting from an absurd 59.6 LOB% and .475 BABIP. It’s also easy to see some promising signs within his profile -- his 21.6 K-BB% would rank 12th-best in MLB.

Let’s examine his pitch mix to take a deeper dive on the young Pirate:

Pitch mix

Four-Seamer Slider Curveball Changeup
59.5 Usage% 20.8 Usage% 15.9 Usage% 3.7 Usage%
5.8 Barrel% 11.1 Barrel% 5.6 Barrel% 0.0 Barrel%
8.0 SwStr% 26.6 SwStr% 13.3 SwStr% 3.6 SwStr%
27.5 GB% 59.3 GB% 72.2 GB% 40.0 GB%
-10.4 pitchVAL 2.3 pitchVAL 2.7 pitchVAL -2.5 pitchVAL
.421 xwOBAcon .331 xwOBAcon .254 xwOBAcon .344 xwOBAcon

Keller’s four-seamer was ineffective, posting a poor -10.4 pitchVAL and .421 xwOBAcon. It averages 95.4 MPH with a strong spin rate, so we can project improvement in batted ball results.

The real gem in Keller’s arsenal is his slider, which induced an elite 26.6 SwStr%. He also has a curveball that stymied hitters to the tune of a .254 xwOBAcon. As you can see, Keller is another pitcher who should try to use his fastball less and emphasize his secondaries. This would surely help him take the next step in his development as a young pitcher.

2020 outlook

More encouraging for Keller was the team’s decision to dismiss long-time pitching coach Ray Searage. Searage emphasized pitching to contact, which impeded the growth of his young starters. We have seen pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow improve dramatically upon leaving Pittsburgh. New arrivals to the Pirates have also regressed -- Chris Archer really struggled under Searage’s tutelage.

New pitching coach Oscar Marin is taking a more analytically-inclined approach to instruction, so it’s likely that we’ll see improvement in the Pirates’ starting rotation, which bodes well for Keller.

The upcoming shortened season is a positive for Keller’s fantasy value, because any concerns over innings restrictions will be mitigated by the decrease in games played. Throughout the offseason, we have witnessed a ton of hype over Keller’s 2020 outlook and for good reason. This is a former top prospect with filthy stuff, ready to take the next step in his development. Keller has the look of the player who lives up to the hype.

 

Josh James - RP/SP, Astros

2019 stats

SIERA K-BB% SwStr% GB% HR/9 Z-Contact% xwOBAcon
3.33 24.4 16.2 34.6 1.47 74.3 0.337

James is another talented young pitcher with prospect pedigree, ranking 62nd on MLB.com’s 2019 Top 100 Prospects. He came into last season in a battle for the fifth spot in the Astros’ starting rotation, but a quad injury in February put an end to those hopes. James responded with a strong effort out of the bullpen, posting a 24.4 K-BB% (23rd among relievers), 16.2 SwStr% (18th among relievers), and 74.3 Z-Contact% (6th among relievers).

Let’s analyze his pitch mix to see what makes him such an appealing fantasy asset:

Pitch mix

Four-Seamer Slider Changeup
63.3 Usage% 20.5 Usage% 14.6 Usage%
3.4 Barrel% 13.0 Barrel% 0.0 Barrel%
14.1 SwStr% 19.6 SwStr% 21.8 SwStr%
33.0 GB% 30.4 GB% 64.3 GB%
4.3 pitchVAL -0.9 pitchVAL 0.7 pitchVAL
.336 xwOBAcon .424 xwOBAcon .209 xwOBAcon

Unlike Bundy and Keller, James has a nasty four-seamer that sits at 97.1 MPH average velocity and induces an elite 14.1 SwStr%. While we should account for a decrease in velocity as a starter, James’ four-seamer should remain effective at 95+ MPH. He also has a strong changeup (21.8 SwStr%, .209xwOBAcon) that causes problems for opposing hitters. His slider (19.6 SwStr%) is another weapon that can help put away hitters. 

2020 outlook

The Astros allowed starters Cole and Wade Miley to depart in free agency, which presents an opportunity for James to secure a spot in the rotation. Roster Resource projects the rotation to include James alongside Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy.

Even if James were to start the shortened season in the bullpen, McCullers is coming off Tommy John surgery, so his innings will be monitored closely, and likely limited, even in a shorter year.

James has a chance to breakout in his third season in the big leagues. He’ll be pitching for a contending team that needs to rely on him more because of key losses in their starting rotation. It will be interesting to watch James transition into a starter after showing promise out of the bullpen. His impressive four-seamer bodes well for his chances at success as a starter. James is poised to take the next step in 2020.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dylan Crews5 mins ago

Dealing With Minor Issue
Lane Thomas20 mins ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Paul Sewald43 mins ago

"Getting Extremely Close"
Willson Contreras53 mins ago

Back In Wednesday's Lineup
Jordan Walker57 mins ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Corbin Carroll1 hour ago

Hitting Seventh On Wednesday
Cody Bellinger1 hour ago

X-Rays On Cody Bellinger Come Back Negative
Cale Makar3 hours ago

Registers Two Assists In Game 2
Tom Wilson3 hours ago

Notches Two Points In Tuesday's Loss
Alexis Lafrenière3 hours ago

Alexis Lafreniere Collects Two Assists In Game 2 Victory
Filip Forsberg3 hours ago

Leads The Charge As Nashville Ties Series
Victor Hedman3 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Game 2
Carter Verhaeghe3 hours ago

Hits Overtime Winner In Game 2
Sam Bennett3 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury In Game 2
James Harden4 hours ago

Settles For 22 Points In Game 2
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 32 Points In Game 2
Damian Lillard4 hours ago

Scores 34 Points In Losing Effort
Tyrese Haliburton4 hours ago

Collects A Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Pascal Siakam4 hours ago

In Fantastic Form Once Again Versus Milwaukee
Devin Booker4 hours ago

Leads Suns With 20 Points In Game 2
Mike Tauchman4 hours ago

Hits Two Homers
Anthony Edwards5 hours ago

Struggles In Game 2
Julio Rodríguez12 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Hits First Homer Of 2024 Tuesday
Max Fried13 hours ago

Tosses Complete-Game Shutout Tuesday
Nolan Jones13 hours ago

Exits Early Tuesday With Back Stiffness
Merrill Kelly13 hours ago

Out For At Least A Month
Daniel Gafford14 hours ago

Returns To Game 2
Karl-Anthony Towns14 hours ago

Has A Rough Night On Tuesday
Jaden McDaniels14 hours ago

Erupts In Game 2
Daniel Gafford14 hours ago

Questionable To Return To Game 2
Luke Kornet15 hours ago

Out Again For Game 2
Grayson Allen15 hours ago

Won't Return To Tuesday's Game
Cody Bellinger15 hours ago

Exits After Hitting Outfield Wall
Francisco Alvarez15 hours ago

Likely Out Eight Weeks
Pete Fairbanks16 hours ago

Rays "Encouraged" By Pete Fairbanks' Tests
TJ Friedl16 hours ago

Closing In On Rehab Assignment
Lane Thomas16 hours ago

Leaves With Apparent Leg Injury
Kawhi Leonard16 hours ago

Returns To Clippers Lineup
DJ LeMahieu16 hours ago

Suffers Setback Tuesday
Kris Bryant18 hours ago

Won't Return Wednesday
Framber Valdez18 hours ago

Could Start A Game In Mexico City
Robert Stephenson18 hours ago

To Have Tommy John Surgery
Grayson Allen19 hours ago

Ready To Go Tuesday
Zion Williamson19 hours ago

Confident Of Returning In Playoffs
Terry Rozier19 hours ago

Ruled Out For Game 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo19 hours ago

To Remain Out On Tuesday
Andrew Peeke19 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Ryan Lomberg19 hours ago

Unavailable Due To Illness
Alexandar Georgiev20 hours ago

To Remain Between The Sticks Tuesday
Nick Jensen20 hours ago

Rasmus Sandin Not Ready To Return
Samuel Girard20 hours ago

Set To Remain Out On Tuesday
Thatcher Demko20 hours ago

Out For Game 2, Questionable For Rest Of Series
Brandon Aiyuk20 hours ago

Trade Remains "Very Much In Play"
Denver Broncos21 hours ago

Broncos Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Patrick Surtain II
Kawhi Leonard22 hours ago

Present For Shootaround
New England Patriots23 hours ago

Patriots Haven't Received "Serious" Offers For No. 3 Pick
Kadarius Toney23 hours ago

Still In Chiefs' Plans
Jake Browning23 hours ago

Bengals Re-Sign Jake Browning
Ivan Fedotov23 hours ago

Agrees To Two-Year Extension With Flyers
Timo Meier24 hours ago

To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Lucas Johansen24 hours ago

To Make Postseason Debut Tuesday
Brett Pesce24 hours ago

Questionable For Game 3
William Nylander24 hours ago

A Possibility For Game 3
Adrian Kempe1 day ago

Keeps Postseason Scoring Streak Going
Adam Henrique1 day ago

Collects Two Points In Game 1 Victory
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Sends Out Two Assists In Monday's Win
Nikola Jokic1 day ago

Posts Special Triple-Double In Game 2 Victory
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Completes 20-Point Effort With Big Game-Winner
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

49ers Have Received Calls Regarding Brandon Aiyuk
Dak Prescott2 days ago

Not Trying To Be Highest-Paid Player
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Broncos Acquiring Zach Wilson From Jets
Matt Ryan2 days ago

Officially Retires From NFL
Cincinnati Bengals2 days ago

Sam Hubbard Recovering From Ankle Surgery
New England Patriots2 days ago

Patriots Listening To Calls For No. 3 Pick
Rashee Rice2 days ago

Expected To Receive Multi-Game Suspension
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Survives At Talladega For First Win Of 2024
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Finishes Second At Talladega After Last-Lap Wreck
Anthony Alfredo2 days ago

Gets Best Finish For Beard Motorsports Since 2022
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

One Of The Strongest At Talladega
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace Finishes 36th At Talladega Superspeedway
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Fails To Deliver Value In DFS At Talladega
NASCAR2 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Fourth At Talladega
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Surprisingly The Most Consistent Driver At Talladega
Shane Van Gisbergen2 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Acquits Himself Nicely In Drafting Debut
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Ends Talladega Wrecked From The Lead
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Quietly Captures Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Brock Bowers3 days ago

Jets The Favorite To Take Brock Bowers At No. 10
Drake Maye3 days ago

Giants Could Be Eyeing Drake Maye
Daniel Hemric3 days ago

Surges To Ninth-Place Result At Talladega
Harrison Burton3 days ago

Squeezes Into Top 10 At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 14th For the GEICO 500
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Avoid Rostering Tyler Reddick At Talladega?
John Hunter Nemechek3 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster John Hunter Nemechek At Talladega?
Joey Logano3 days ago

Expect Joey Logano To Compete For The Win At Talladega
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Recommended For Talladega?
Justin Haley3 days ago

Is A Top DFS Value At Talladega
William Byron3 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win Talladega
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Is Best Suited As A Tournament Play At Talladega
Zach Wilson4 days ago

Jets Still "Open" To Trading Zach Wilson
Marquise Brown4 days ago

Could Have Lucrative Role In KC
Dak Prescott5 days ago

Hasn't Started Contract Negotiations With Cowboys
Zach Wilson5 days ago

Not At Voluntary Workouts
Jayden Daniels5 days ago

Not Interested In Playing In D.C.?
DJ Chark Jr.5 days ago

Visits With Chargers
Courtland Sutton5 days ago

Broncos Not Concerned With Courtland Sutton
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Blockbuster Trade Ideas for the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and the rumor mill is heating up. While the NFL Draft is full of chaos and excitement without trade action, everyone loves to see a blockbuster deal made. A few expected blockbuster deals are getting thrown around on social media, headlined by the Minnesota Vikings trading... Read More


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Brandon Murchison's 2024 First-Round NFL Mock Draft

In the realm of fantasy football, anticipation and strategy reach a fever pitch as the NFL Draft approaches. Every selection, every pick holds the potential to reshape not only the fortunes of real-life franchises but also the fantasy landscape for millions of enthusiasts. As the curtain rises on this year's first-round NFL Mock Draft, fantasy managers... Read More


Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft - Pro Player Comparisons for the Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies

Rookie fever is nearing its peak, and in just a few days, we'll know with full certainty where these prospects will be playing their games on Sundays. In turn, fantasy football gamers will be poring over player tapes, stats, and metrics like "Oops, I forgot to study, and my final is tomorrow" for upcoming rookie... Read More


Adonai Mitchell - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top 100 NFL Draft Prospects (Final)

With the NFL Draft just a day away, it’s time to submit my final rankings for this class. Below, you will find the top-100 prospects on my board for 2024. There will be some changes from last month, as well as some surprises. Feel free to criticize my choices and views on the platform formerly... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

2024 NFL Draft - Overvalued Prospects Who Could Slip on Draft Night

A few weeks ago, I was watching the 2007 NFL Draft. It was on the NFL's Pluto TV channel and I didn't have anything else to do, so I figured I'd turn it on. I was struck by two things. First, it's wild how far technology has come since 2007. They kept advertising that you... Read More


Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2024 NFL Mock Draft - Round 2 and 3 Final Predictions

Can you feel it? We're just over one day away from the 2024 NFL Draft, folks! Summer's breeze is almost here as well, but not before we dive deep into draft season. With the initial wave of free agency settling down, the roster blueprints for our 32 teams are coming into sharp focus. Hunting for... Read More


Tyler Boyd - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Is Tyler Boyd a Free Agent? Top Landing Spots for Boyd This Offseason

For eight seasons, Cincinnati was Tyler Boyd’s home. He amassed 6,000 receiving yards on 513 receptions and scored 31 touchdowns during his time with the Bengals. Boyd was a trusted option for quarterback Joe Burrow and was great as the team’s primary slot receiver. Unfortunately, the club opted not to re-sign him this offseason. After... Read More


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft - Potential Busts In First-Round Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts

The fantasy football offseason is an interesting time for dynasty players. With the combine behind us and the NFL Draft just ahead, we have collected nearly every bit of information we need aside from landing spots. This year's class brings in a new wave of gifted athletes primed to impact the NFL and our fantasy... Read More


Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2024 NFL Draft: Updated Draft Stocks For Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. - Will They Be First-Round Picks?

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. are being compared to each other ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, and it makes sense considering their similar collegiate career paths. Both signal-callers struggled early in their career at different schools but turned it around and blossomed into stars in the Pac-12. However, projecting... Read More


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Primer #2: How and When to Rebuild Your Fantasy Football Dynasty League Team

Several weeks ago, we published the first part of my Dynasty Primer series. That article delves into how dynasty managers can and should value dynasty draft picks, especially rookie-only picks. The aim is to help fans understand how to value dynasty draft picks, independent of player valuations or analyst opinions on the players you might... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 - Final Predictions from All 32 Teams

Alright, folks, NFL Draft week is finally here: that magical time when every fan can dare to dream again! If you've been reading some of these mocks during the season, you know what a ride it's been and I sincerely appreciate any of you who've been following along. With the first big wave of NFL... Read More


Garrett Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - rotoballer icon

Fantasy Football: 2024 Positive TD Regression Candidates At WR

Touchdowns are the name of the game in fantasy football, especially at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. In most leagues, both rushing and receiving touchdowns count for six points. In a half-PPR league, that's the same thing as three catches for 45 yards. Now that we're on the topic of touchdowns, this article... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who are the Top Five Running Backs in 2024 Fantasy Football?

With the NFL Draft finally within our sights, we are not far away from the start of the NFL season. More importantly, we are one step closer to our fantasy football drafts. Now is a good time to get an early look at each position. We all know how important an elite running back is... Read More