Melvin Upton Jr. is better than his brother. OK, that's a bit obvious this year, so how about this? Melvin (yes, we're talking about BJ) Upton is the best dual-threat (power/speed) fantasy player in the National League. At the All-Star break, Upton has 16 HR and 20 SB. Upton's value as a dual-threat player ranks up there with reigning MVP Bryce Harper (19/13) and Padres teammate Wil Myers (19/15). 

The American League has a slew of comparable players such as MVP candidates Jose Altuve (14/23) and Mike Trout (18/15), as well as Mookie Betts (18/15), Ian Desmond (15/15) and even Eduardo Nunez (12/22). But in his current league, Upton is in rare company. His .262 average and 45 runs are satisfactory, but hold him back from being an "elite" performer and obviously a couple of steps below the likes of Harper/Trout/Altuve. Still, fantasy owners who slept on Upton's production early this year are probably kicking themselves for not picking him up sooner. His 46 combined HR/SB top all the aforementioned players other than Altuve, who I already proclaimed as the 2016 fantasy baseball MVP months ago. So, what is the reason behind Upton's resurgence this year and will it last?

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The most surprising thing about Upton's production is that his plate discipline isn't really any better than his career averages across most categories. In fact, some of his numbers are even worse than during his two-year funk with the Braves, yet his production has jumped dramatically. First, he is posting the worst SwStr% of his career at 16.0%. Upton has always been prone to striking out, with a career 26.5% K% and seven seasons of 150+ strikeouts. With 99 K already in 87 games, he may actually threaten 200 this season - something only five players have "accomplished."

If I had a dime for every time I saw Upton strike out... I would take them to that CoinStar thing at the grocery store and get cash instead. I hate carrying change in my pocket. Especially when you're reaching for your keys and then a bunch of coins fall out and then you have to pick them up. That's just the worst. #FirstWorldProblems

In fantasy land, strikeouts usually don't hurt in standard formats though. Did you remember that Mike Trout struck out 184 times in his 2014 MVP season? Of course you did. Good for you. Well, did you know that Upton's overall Contact% is at 68.3%, which is below his 72.7% career mark and nearly matches his 2014 rate? That was the season he finished at .208 with 12 HR over 519 at-bats. Not a great fantasy value. This year, he is actually swinging at more pitches outside the zone (28.6% O-Swing%), but is making more contact on those swings than usual (57.3% O-Contact%). Always a free-swinger, Upton is making the most of his contact. Despite posting a higher 1.29 GB/FB, he has seen his HR/FB% jump to 20.3%. That seems like a sign for some regression, so a 30/30 season may not be in the cards, but 25 HR seems attainable.

That was a no-doubter, but then again once you noticed Ubaldo Jimenez was pitching, you probably knew what was going to happen as soon as he let that pitch go.

Speaking of making the most of his contact, Upton has been clutch for the Padres as well. Of his 16 home runs, two have been lead-off homers (see above) and three have been of the walk-off variety (see below). Most impressively, Upton managed to smack one off of Andrew Miller, who has been nearly unhittable this year.

Fact: Upton has hit more HR against Miller (3) than any other batter. The More You Know...

The speed is easy to explain. Upton already has three seasons of 40+ SB and two more of 30+ SB under his belt. He is on pace for his best total since 2012 since leaving Tampa Bay and joining the NL. Playing a full season and hitting above .200 might have something to do with it.

Upton's production is single-handedly keeping the Padres in contention! What do you mean too late?

This steal of home will surely win an ESPY for Play of the Year! What do you mean too late???

Melvin Upton Jr. is on pace to produce the best fantasy season of his career, despite being on the wrong side of 30 and playing for team that is in the midst of a massive fire sale. He won't win any awards, he doesn't make for a keeper candidate and will more than likely regress a bit in the second half. That said, he might just finish this year with a higher combined HR/SB total than every other player in the league, including several MVP candidates. Plus, he may be the most entertaining player to watch in the entire National League. Keep doing your thing, Melvin.

 

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