X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pierre Camus's Bold Predictions for 2017

By Johnmaxmena2 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller's Pierre Camus makes his bold predictions for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

I'm no stranger to making bold predictions, although this is my first go-around in this particular series.

As a fantasy analyst, I always try to take an objective, statistic-based approach. As a fan, I am an unrepentant Marlins apologist and tend to hold grudges against players and teams for decades on end. I would have put Jose Peraza first thing on this list, but Kyle stole my thunder already, much like he did in our latest mock draft (grudge held, mock be damned).

And now, for my bold predictions for 2017. I hope you enjoy the picks.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Jake Arrieta takes home another Cy Young award.

Let me start by saying this is completely predicated on Clayton Kershaw's back. If Kershaw pitches a whole season, he's practically a lock. Back issues for a pitcher can be troubling, however, and the Dodgers may play it safe with their ace to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Arrieta, who is known for his elaborate workout routines and dedication to fitness, is entering a contract year in which he somehow must prove that he has earned an extension.

Arrieta already claimed a Cy Young award in 2015 after one of the most dominating second halves a Major League pitcher has ever thrown. He also managed to finish ninth in voting in both 2014 and 2016. Some people will expect a slight letdown after the Cubs broke through to win the title, but Arrieta may be stepping his game up in hopes of a big payday, whether from Chicago or another club. For that reason, I don't think a third-round ADP is too high at all.

2. The best fantasy player on Milwaukee will be Keon Broxton.

Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar will be just fine - I'm not predicting them to collapse. The ceiling for Broxton is just that high (according to me). Along with every other Brewer, Broxton was given the green light last year and swiped 23 bags in just 207 AB. Where he outdid Villar was his effectiveness on the base paths. Broxton actually finished eighth in MLB with an 85% SB%. Over a full season, it's easy to see how Broxton could reach 50 or more SB. Detractors will point to a .242 average and 36.1% K% to say that there's no way he'll hit at the top of the order or reach base enough to have value beyond 40 steals, max. Fiddlesticks, I say. Broxton was outright bad his first time around the majors, but after a brief demotion he hit .294/.399/.538 in the second half of the season. That OBP is no joke and it will remain high because of his walk rate. Broxton walked nearly 15% of the time as a rookie and consistently walked at a 10% or higher clip across the minors. Broxton could do the same thing Villar did last year, but with even more pop. Oh, and he's available after the 15th round (unless you're in a league with me, in which I will have already taken him).

3. Danny Duffy strikes out more batters than Chris Sale.

Duffy will be more important to the Royals' staff than ever, which gives him a good shot to reach 200 innings. He jumped up to 9.4 K/9 last season and his control numbers continue to improve each season. If Duffy truly experiences a breakout season, he could surpass Sale's total of 233 last year in Chicago. It may not make a huge difference, but Fenway Park had a -5% K% Park Factor compared to Guaranteed Rate Field, just enough to think that Sale could slip outside the top 10 K finishers.

4. Andrew McCutchen will be a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

Making this claim for a former MVP and perennial All-Star doesn't seem too bold, but many are jumping ship on Cutch this season. His stock has been dropping steadily over the last few months, nearly placing him outside the top 20 outfielders in early drafts. While the speed may indeed be gone, don't be surprised if Cutch hits .300 with steady power numbers and shows enough to consistency to outpace players like Nelson Cruz, George Springer, or teammate Gregory Polanco.

5. Welington Castillo will be a top-five fantasy catcher.

Castillo came the closest he's been to being a full-time catcher last season with 113 games in Arizona. A .264/14/68 line is pretty good, but what about now that he's on a team that swings for the fences each and every inning? Castillo hit 19 HR in just 342 AB in 2015 and certainly could break 20 in Camden Yards, where the ball flies out easier than many ballparks. I'm not drafting him before the 15th round because, well, he's a catcher, but I wouldn't consider any catcher not named Posey, Lucroy, or Sanchez before him.

6. Zack Greinke falls off the map completely and out of the top 40 SP.

Blame the Arizona heat all you want, but there are legitimate concerns about Greinke losing his stuff. He has been clocked at 88 MPH on his fastball this spring, as opposed to 93 last year. It's hard to imagine someone a year removed from almost winning a Cy Young falling off so quickly, but Greinke has always been up-and-down. After finished fourth in ROY voting in 2004, he lost 17 games and posted a 5.80 ERA the following season. After winning a Cy Young in 2009, his ERA jumped by two runs and he finished with a losing record the next year. It's taken him a couple of years to full recover each time, but that was when he was in his 20s. Greinke simply may never feel comfortable in Arizona and I think the concerns are real enough that I'm outright avoiding him.

7. Eugenio Suarez outperforms Javier Baez. By a lot.

Baez has a ton of power, but he has also has a ton of holes in his swing (3.9 AB/K). Let's not forget that he doesn't have a starting job as of this moment either. Baez makes a good hold in dynasty leagues, but he shouldn't be starting on any fantasy teams in 2017. Suarez is just one year older than Baez and will hold down third base on a regular basis in Cincinnati. Even if he posts just moderate increases across the board, we're looking at approximately 25 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R and an average around .265. Now imagine if he has a breakout season...

8. The Rockies will make the playoffs.

This is mostly about Colorado's underrated pitching staff. First, I will continue banging the drum for the effectiveness of Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Chatwood. All had solid years, despite two being rookies and all calling Coors their home park. It's unclear who the closer is in Colorado, but considering they now have Greg Holland, Mike Dunn, Jake Mcgee, and Adam Ottavino all available, they have plenty of quality options. There's no need to explain how good Colorado's offense will be, especially if Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy all year.

9. The Red Sox won't make the playoffs.

Boston would seem to be in better shape after signing Chris Sale and adding Tyler Thornburg to their staff, but the recent news about David Price is definitely disconcerting. Plus, regression from Rick Porcello and Steven Wright is almost guaranteed. That aside, the staff isn't my biggest question with Boston. The loss of Big Papi will have a bigger effect than simply substituting 38 HR and 127 RBI in the lineup. If you think Hanley Ramirez will simply step in and post the same numbers, let me remind you he has missed 277 games since 2010. The Sox have one of the best middle infield combos around, but the corners are manned by Pablo Sandoval and Mitch Moreland, not exactly world-beaters. As far as the outfield, it may be more hype than substance in fantasy terms. Andrew Benintendi is a top prospect, but he's still a rookie. Jackie Bradley Jr.'s hitting streak was soooo last year - he's still a .237 career hitter in the majors. Mookie Betts, well he'll be fine. Generally speaking, I won't overpay for these big market media darlings.

10. Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy, hits 50 homers and leads the league in slugging.

Yes, this is an overly optimistic one from a Miami native and Marlins fan, but it's gotta happen eventually, right? Maybe 50 is a little high, but 45 is definitely achievable. Stanton has been labeled injury-prone, but the truth is he hasn't had a recurring issue with the same joints, rather a string of random injuries and bad luck. The biggest chunk of time he has missed came in 2015, when he took a fastball to the orbital socket. Stanton is currently representing the U S of A in the World Baseball Classic and looks perfectly ready to start the season.

His upside is what we all dream of when drafting Stanton, but his floor is actually a better justification. Stanton has never hit fewer than 22 HR in a Major League season, a low of which came in his rookie year where he played 100 games. In 2015, he his 27 HR in just 279 at-bats and hit the same number in 413 at-bats last season. He is 27 years old, still in his prime and playing for a team that could at least contend for a wild card, mostly on the strength of its offense.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dak Prescott

in Full Command Monday Night With Four Touchdown Passes
George Pickens

Erupts for 144 Yards, Touchdown in Monday Night Win
Jrue Holiday

Unlikely to Play Tuesday
CeeDee Lamb

George Pickens Benched for First Drive
LeBron James

Officially Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Exits Monday's Game With Groin Injury
Julian Strawther

Out on Monday
Cameron Johnson

Cleared for Action Monday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available Against Bulls
Zaccharie Risacher

Considered Questionable for Tuesday's Game
Onyeka Okongwu

Iffy for Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Jalen Suggs

Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Paolo Banchero

to Remain Out Tuesday
Ayo Dosunmu

Playing on Minutes Restriction Monday
Tre Jones

Still Out Monday
Saddiq Bey

Won't Play Against OKC
Zion Williamson

Still Out on Monday Night
Jamison Battle

Available Monday
Ochai Agbaji

Remains Out Monday
Alex Singleton

Broncos Optimistic Patrick Surtain, Alex Singleton Will Return After the Bye
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful Again in Week 12
Ausar Thompson

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Jalen Duren

Returns Against Pacers
Shedeur Sanders

Expected to Make First Career Start in Week 12
Cade Cunningham

Remains Out Monday
Coby White

Sits Out Monday's Game
Josh Jacobs

Dealing With Knee Contusion
Mikael Granlund

Unavailable Monday
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
Conor Garland

Misses Monday's Game
Eetu Luostarinen

Out on Monday
Drake London

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Drew Doughty

Listed as Week-to-Week
Ja'Marr Chase

Being Suspended for One Game for Unsportsmanlike Conduct
John Carlson

a Game-Time Call Monday
Viktor Arvidsson

Out Week-to-Week
Charlie McAvoy

Out Against Hurricanes
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Joe Burrow

Could Do 11-on-11 Work This Week in Practice
Michael Penix Jr.

Heads to Injured Reserve, Could Need Full Knee Reconstruction
Tyrod Taylor

Taking Over as Jets' Starting QB
Josh Jacobs

' Knee Injury is Not Serious, but he Could Miss Week 12
Lane Johnson

Expected to Miss 4-6 Weeks With Foot Injury
Drake London

Could Miss Extended Time With PCL Sprain
Michael Penix Jr.

Knee Injury is "Potentially Season-Ending"
Jaxson Dart

Remains in Concussion Protocol, Status for Week 12 Unclear
Ja'Marr Chase

NFL Will Review Week 11 Scuffle Between Ja'Marr Chase and Jalen Ramsey
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With a Wrist Fracture, Pushing to Play Sunday
Mitchell Marner

Establishes Vegas Record Sunday
Mats Zuccarello

Logs Two Assists in Overtime Victory
Lucas Raymond

Leads Red Wings to Victory at MSG
Quinn Hughes

Delivers Four Assists in Sunday's Win
Conor Garland

Limited to Handful of Minutes Sunday
Ryan Hartman

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Adrian Kempe

Agrees to $85 Million Extension With Kings
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Clears 100-Yard Mark Again in Loss to Rams
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
Scott Mayfield

Available Sunday
NYI

Max Shabanov Returns From 12-Game Absence Sunday
Samuel Honzek

Out Week-to-Week
Kirby Dach

Sidelined for 4-6 Weeks
Thatcher Demko

Considered Week-to-Week
Filip Hronek

Good to Go Sunday
Quinn Hughes

Back in Action Sunday
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP