RADIO
Lucas Glover (-14) sits atop the leaderboard with the final round still to come tomorrow with Taylor one more shot back of him at -13. The star studded leaderboard behind them will be ready to go super low tomorrow as evidenced by Justin Rose shooting -9 in R3. This tournament is far from over and it provides us with a great opportunity in round 4 showdown to get a little aggressive further down the leaderboard.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks, don't be like the 50+ people that play these 6 guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win $1,000 and split it with 50 people to win $20... IF you hit the nutz!? The Chances the leaderboard looks like this tomorrow morning is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
There seems to be slightly more wind in the afternoon tomorrow, but nothing significant from a scoring perspective. What may be the case, though, is the warm weather and sun drying out the firm greens a little more tomorrow, presumably making the final round scoring the worst of the week. Those going out early may get slightly softer conditions before this happens and they will inherently have lower ownership as they are further down the leaderboard. Most of our lineups are going to want to have 2 or so guys who can win the tournament, with the other 3 or 4 capable of making it into the top-10 with a really nice R4.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Favorite play: Xander Schauffele now sits in T23 after a bit of a dud of a round in R3. He has an incredible T20 rate and expect him to roar up the leaderboard tomorrow with a pressure-free round of golf that could potentially be the low round of the day if he makes a few more putts. The irons were fantastic in R3 and just never converted on enough birdie looks.
Other considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm
$9,000+
Favorite play: Collin Morikawa has not really unleashed his iron play this week and the putter has been a little cold, but we know what he is capable of at any given moment and despite losing strokes putting this week he still sits in T12. A hot putter that converts those birdie putts that he sees so many of daily, could vault him into the top-5 and break the slate.
Other considerations: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim
$8,000+
Favorite play: Max Homa is somebody who tends to gain 2+ strokes in R4 when he is in the mix (gained 9 total strokes through 3 rounds aka "clutch factor") which is often needed to win a golf tournament. He is ultra-affordable for somebody who has 3 wins this year and his game seems to be trending towards winning another tournament soon.
Other considerations: Tony Finau, Lucas Glover, Cameron Young
$7,000+
Favorite play: Byeong Hun An has been living in the shadow of Lucas Glover, as his putter has also seen significant improvement after also switching to the broomstick putter. He is in T16 and if he continues to play how he has, a ceiling round is just around the corner and could vault into the top -5 with one of them. He makes birdies at a rapid rate and should be reasonably owned.
Other considerations: Emiliano Grillo, Sepp Straka, Denny McCarthy
$6,000+
Favorite play: Adam Schenk is in T16 and is not afraid to go low. His iron play has been sensational by his standards and his putter is absolutely capable of going scorched earth when he sees a few roll in early in the round. He has a slew of top-10 finishes on his resume already and in the $6k range another one of those would be a perfect R4 for our favorite $6k golfer.
Other considerations: Sam Ryder, Nick Taylor
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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