X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA DFS: Horse For The Course - AT&T Byron Nelson

Welcome back RotoBallers! Max Homa? How many of you guys had him winning the Wells Fargo? Yeah...me neither. Homa's victory is a nice reminder that these guys on the PGA Tour are good, ALL of them. While we didn't discuss Homa in last week's article, the Wells Fargo went well for our Horses. We nabbed a top-five (Paul Casey), two top-10s (McIlroy & Mitchell), and a top-20 (Aaron Wise), with a Phil Mickelson missed cut and a Sam Burns WD being our only misses.

This week we head to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson, an old tournament that's being played in a relatively new setting. Trinity Forest Golf Club made its debut on the PGA Tour schedule in 2018 as the host of the Nelson and is back this year. If we're being honest, a lot of us probably already have one eye on next week's PGA Championship at Bethpage. Don't feel bad, as most of the elite golfers in the world do too. Brooks Koepka headlines a weakish Nelson field that includes defending champ Aaron Wise, Hideki Matsuyama, and hometown boy (and Trinity Forest member) Jordan Spieth.

As far as course history goes, we only have a one-year sample to build on. Those of you that like to look at player's tournament history should keep in mind that Byron Nelsons prior to last year weren't played at this course.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

Sign Up Now!

 

The Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club

Par 71 - 7,371 Yards, Greens: Bermuda

This place is a dump. No, really...Trinity Forest was constructed on top of a former landfill. Despite its name, there isn't a tree to found on this Trinity Forest layout that resembles a links course that might be found in Scotland or England. The pros lit up Trinity Forest last year and it graded out as one of the easiest courses on the 2018 Tour schedule. The combination of huge rolling fairways with no rough to speak of and gigantic greens resulted in 1,970 birdies and eagles being made in last year's Byron Nelson. Marc Leishman logged a first-round 61 and Branden Grace scored a final-round 62 last year and we should again see plenty of fireworks in Dallas this week. A round of 59 isn't something you can ever expect, but we might see someone flirt with that magic number on this layout. We obviously want to target players that can pile up birdies and eagles on this golf course. I'll also be interested in players that are great off the tee and, as always, I'll be trying to squeeze great ball strikers into my DFS lineups.

 

 

The Horse

Keith Mitchell (DK - $9,100 & FD - $10,200)

Notable Course History: T3 (2018)
Recent Form: T8 (Wells Fargo), M/C (RBC Heritage), T43 (Masters), T47 (Players), T6 (API), Win (Honda)

Keith...I can't quit you. I wrote up 'Tha Killa' in this article last week for the Wells Fargo and he came through for a T8 at $7.8k. This week at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Mitchell's DFS price tag has increased significantly, but my faith remains strong.

Mitchell is admittedly a little more volatile than my usual 'Horse' selections, and prior to last week's top-10 finish at Quail Hollow, Mitchell had logged three straight ugly outings...but I just can't ignore how great his game fits Trinity Forest, especially on a week that we are dealing with a field that's pretty short on depth.

The Chattanooga native (shoutout Tennessee!) is strong with the driver and ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee over his last 24 rounds. Mitchell also has the ability to score, an ability that will be crucial this week in what should be a birdie-fest. He stands second on the PGA Tour in Total Eagles this season and 23rd in Total Birdies.

One appearance is a tiny sample size, but Mitchell seems extremely comfortable at Trinity Forest. In last year's Byron Nelson he gained strokes across the board, including a massive 12.7 Strokes Gained: Total. The official 'Keith Mitchell Flow Chart' starts with one simple question: "Are the greens Bermuda?"...the answer is "Yes" this week, so we can feel good about considering him for our rosters.

As I mentioned, Mitchell's price has increased across the industry. He comes in at $9,100 on DK which I know is really tough to swallow for a player who hasn't been priced above $7,800 on DK all season, but when we take into account his form, course fit, and the depth of this field...it isn't as outrageous as it seems. There's a chance that Mitchell's shiny, new price tag will put a dent in his ownership, but while some might be scared away by the salary bump, I'll be going right back to the Mitchell well this week.

 

The Ponies

Brooks Koepka (DK - $11,400 & FD - $12,600)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T2 (Masters), T56 (Players), T85 (API), T2 (Honda)

A quick word about Brooks Koepka, who (with apologies to Hideki Matsuyama) is the best player in this watered-down field. I have no doubt about Koepka's physical tools and I also believe that he should be a perfect fit for Trinity Forest. The concern with Koepka is always where he will be mentally. After demonstrating some truly concerning form this season, he once again flipped the 'major championship switch' to log a T2 at Augusta National.

With the PGA Championship on the near horizon, how motivated will Koepka be to win this tournament? We know that he will bring his 'A game' to Bethpage next week, but it's a bit of a wild card as to where the three-time major champion's head will be in Dallas.

Trinity Forest should be a great fit for Koepka. Its huge fairways are reminiscent of Erin Hills, the course where he won his first U.S. Open. Anytime that Brooks has the opportunity to bomb away off the tee, he must be considered a serious threat to win, and he will have plenty of chances this week. Koepka has the ability to go low and ranks fifth in this field in Birdies or Better Gained and third in Eagles Gained over his last 24 rounds.

His place atop the salary scale reflects his position as the best player in the field, but the scary thing is I don't know that you're really getting much 'safety' by paying up to Koepka, as we've seen him appear completely disinterested in some of his starts this year in the lower-echelon events. However, he does carry huge upside and could legitimately run away with this tournament. I don't think he'll garner tons of ownership, so rostering him might actually be a somewhat contrarian line to take in GPPs.

 

Rory Sabbatini (DK - $9,000 & FD - $10,100)

Notable Course History: T13 ('18)
Recent Form: T18 (Wells Fargo), T10 (RBC Heritage), T36 (Valero), T39 (Corales), T18 (Valspar)

I really can't believe that I'm writing about Rory Sabbatini in the year 2019, but here we are. Tiger won the Masters again, so I guess anything is possible. Sabbatini has been playing (and partying?) like it's 1999. The South African has ran off seven straight made cuts with a top-20 finish last week at Quail Hollow and a T10 a couple of weeks ago at the Heritage.

He heads to Dallas as one of the guys in the field with some previous experience at Trinity Forest, as he recorded a T13 in last year's AT&T Byron Nelson. Almost unbelievably, Sabbatini ranks seventh in this field in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds and he's been surprisingly solid in all facets of the game this season. He stands ninth in the field in Fantasy National's Birdies Gained category, not to mention ranking third in Bogeys Avoided. While he's nowhere close to being a bomber, he has handled himself well off the tee and grades out seventh this week in Good Drives Gained.

I know, I know...it's ridiculous to see Rory Sabbatini at $9k! Unfortunately, that's where we are this week. If this price tag is going to scare a lot of people away, I'm willing go the other way and bite on a guy that's been really solid over the last two months.

 

Matt Jones (DK - $7,500 & FD - $8,900)

Notable Course History: T13 ('18)
Recent Form: T38 (Wells Fargo) T30 (Valero), T18 (Corales), T13 (Valspar), T36 (Honda)

On a week that we get the aforementioned Rory Sabbatini at $9k, Matt Jones is one of the few guys in this field that really jumped off the page at me as actually being underpriced. The Aussie has been under-the-radar good this year and as long as DK wants to keep rolling him out there with a mid to low $7k price tag, I'm staying on board.

One of the problems we face in these less-than-stellar type of fields is the inconsistency that a lot of these players struggle with. Jones doesn't fall into that category, as he's made 10 straight cuts this year. We might be sacrificing some tournament-winning upside when we roster Jones, but he has managed a couple of top-15 finishes in 2019 and a T13 on this course last year.

He has been solid across the board recently, standing 11th in the AT&T field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds and 13th in SG: OTT. If Jones has a weakness, it's lackluster iron play. He grades out just 71st in the field in SG: Approach, but might be aided in that department by Trinity's massive greens.

There's a lot to like about Jones' consistent results and DFS price tags this week. He will be a core building block for me in all formats. I'm not usually an 'All In' type of guy, but I'll be heavily invested in Jones in this spot.

 

Wyndham Clark (DK - $7,300 & FD - $8,500)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: M/C (Wells Fargo), T54 (RBC Heritage), T20 (Valero), T37 (Valspar), DQ (Players)

Those of you that read this article regularly probably know that I'm always looking for opportunities to take advantage of any recency bias that might be surrounding a player. Wyndham Clark is in an interesting spot this week. He became a pretty trendy value option last week at the Wells Fargo and proceeded to shoot 74-75 to badly miss the cut.

Folks that rostered Clark last week aren't gonna be in big hurry to jump back on the 25-year-old and he's probably not going to pop in many models thanks to his bad iron play. But...there are some things to like about him at Trinity Forest. He ranks FIRST in this field in Birdies or Better Gained, fourth in SG: Par 4s, and ninth in SG: Par 5s over the last 24 rounds. He's a bomber and stands fifth on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance this season at just over 311 yards per drive. His ability to attack off the tee and take advantage of scoring opportunities should serve him well on this layout that's susceptible to great drivers of the ball that can go low.

Clark is a boom-or-bust GPP option this week. His recent couple of outings have been pretty ugly, but he brings tons of upside and fantasy scoring potential to the table at this price. He's probably not for the faint of heart, but if you're trying to take down a large-field tournament he's a really intriguing value option.

 

Adam Schenk (DK - $7,000 & FD - $8,500)

Notable Course History: T59 ('18)
Recent Form: T13 (Wells Fargo), M/C (RBC Heritage), T7 (Valero), T33 (Corales), M/C (Valspar)

Adam Schenk isn't exactly a household name, but neither is Max Homa or C.T. Pan...two guys that won on the PGA Tour last month. As I mentioned in the intro, ALL of the guys on this Tour are good. Schenk is just 27-years-old and after struggling through a trial by fire type of season last year, the Purdue product is starting to show that he belongs at this level in 2019.

Schenk logged a quiet T13 at Quail Hollow last week and an impressive T7 a month ago at the Valero. He's doing it on the strength of his ball striking and ranks fifth in the field in SG: Approach and THIRD in the field in SG: Total over his last 24 rounds. He also has some Trinity Forest experience and made the cut (T59) here last year.

Anytime we're dipping down to $7k in what's a weak field, there's naturally some risk involved. Schenk's no magic bullet, but he's a guy that's dialed in with his irons and solid from tee to green. He opens up a lot of options when constructing lineups and makes it possible to roster either Brooks Koepka or a couple of players from the $9k range. He's a great deep-dive GPP play.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

 

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.

Sign Up Now!

 

Fantasy National Golf Club

Fantasy National Golf Club

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Add Collin Johnson To Wide Receiver Room
Chicago Bears

Colston Loveland A "Natural Fit" In Ben Johnson's Offense
Salvador Perez

Leaves Early On Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cincinnati Bengals

Samaje Perine Expected To Have A Passing-Down Role
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Expected To Move On From Jalen Ramsey Soon
Shota Imanaga

Expected To Make His Next Start
Tennessee Titans

Chimere Dike Has "Flexibility" To Play All Wide Receiver Positions
Justin Martinez

Diamondbacks Place Justin Martinez On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Kyle Higashioka

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Corey Seager

Targeting Saturday Return
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Exercise Charles Cross' Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Decline Kenyon Green's Fifth-Year Option
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Not Picking Up Devin Lloyd's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Expected To Sit And Learn In 2025
Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Gannon Excited For Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Second Season
Alexis Díaz

Alexis Diaz Optioned To Triple-A
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

On Track To Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Caps Off First Round With Multi-Point Effort
Eetu Luostarinen

Explodes For Four Points In Series-Clincher
Dylan Strome

Extends Point Streak With Two Assists
Alex Ovechkin

Pots 30th Playoff Power-Play Goal
Kyle Connor

Ties Jets Record With Fourth Three-Point Playoff Game
Mark Scheifele

Injured In Game 5
New York Giants

Evan Neal Moving To Offensive Guard
Chris Sale

Strikes Out 10
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Waive Malik Davis
Houston Texans

John Metchie III Could Be Odd-Man Out
Masyn Winn

Homers Twice In Game 1 Of Doubleheader
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Release Anthony Firkser
New England Patriots

Patriots Not Picking Up Cole Strange's Fifth-Year Option
Justin Martinez

Could Land On Injured List
Tommy Edman

Dealing With Ankle Injury
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez To Make Season Debut On Sunday
Kyle Stowers

Blasts Two Homers
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Signs With Bills On One-Year Deal
Mike Trout

Pulled As Precaution Due To Knee Soreness
Dylan Moore

Expected To Return From Injured List After Minimum Stay
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Max Scherzer

Completes Another Successful Bullpen Session
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Jared Jones

Begins Throwing Progression
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Alex Iafallo

Drops To Second Line Wednesday
Pavel Dorofeyev

To Be A Game-Time Call Thursday
Tyler Tucker

Ruled Out For Game 5
Chase Dollander

Leaves Early On Wednesday With Blister Issue
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Sam Montembeault

Remains Out For Game 5
Aliaksei Protas

Likely To Return Wednesday
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Alexandre Carrier

A Game-Time Call Wednesday
Patrik Laine

Out On Wednesday
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Lance McCullers Jr.

To Make Season Debut On Sunday Against White Sox
Griffin Conine

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Bryce Miller

Battles Through Back Injury On Tuesday
Green Bay Packers

Devonte Wyatt's Fifth-Year Option Exercised By Packers
New York Jets

Quarterback Jordan Travis Retires From Football
Taylor Ward

Sitting On Wednesday
Pittsburgh Steelers

Montravius Adams Released By Steelers
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Jordan Davis
Minnesota Vikings

Myles Price Lands With Vikings As UDFA
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Logs Massive Triple-Double In Game 5
Maxi Kleber

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Rob Dillingham

Out On Wednesday
Jae'Sean Tate

Still Out On Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Jack Eichel

Notches Two Assists In Game 5 Victory
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Sebastian Aho

Sends Hurricanes To Round 2
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Linus Ullmark

Records Shutout In Elimination Game
Brady Tkachuk

Extends Point Streak To Four Games
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Pavel Dorofeyev

Doesn't Finish Game 5
Filip Gustavsson

Exits Early Due To Illness
Aaron Ekblad

Slapped With Two-Game Suspension
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option