PGA Betting Advice - Waste Management Open

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Waste Management Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

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In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Brendan Steele -110 over Adam Hadwin

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Brendan Steele in H2H is just as scary as using him in cash-game builds for DFS, but it is essential to remember that the American had produced seven top-26 finishes in a row at TPC Scottsdale before his failed back-to-back ventures in the last two years. Adam Hadwin is a safe commodity that never entirely burns you, but his general lack of upside is an intriguing thing for me to target with a golfer that I believe is underrated for the week.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

There is just too much volatility on the end of Steele. He could go out and top-five this tournament, or he could just as easily miss the cut. These are not ordinarily matchup wagers that I like attacking, but my math on the American has him safer than one would expect. It doesn't mean I want to compound this by taking him in DFS cash-game contests, but this feels like a good situation to grab a number that is baking in the erratic nature of the 37-year-old.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

Sebastian Munoz +110 over Matt Kuchar

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Sebastian Munoz is the most mispriced golfer on the entire slate. The head-to-head market did correct this slightly by placing him against a player that has dominated in recent years in Arizona, but there is no doubt that Matt Kuchar hasn't looked like his old self in recent months. A missed cut at the Sony Open was a surprise result with the way he had performed historically in Hawaii, and while I don't believe we see him miss another weekend, something outside of the top-50 does feel in play for the American.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Mathematically, this was the most significant edge I could find for the event. I say that with extreme caution because I don't weigh course history nearly as much as most people that compile numbers and data together, but it is hard to argue against Kuchar receiving the full benefit of his past results at the venue. It doesn't mean we can't see him turn back the clock for a weekend, but his irons aren't quite as stout as they once were.

1.00 Units to Win 1.10

Doc Redman +120 over Ryan Moore

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It is a pure number grab. I worry about Doc Redman's current form, but it is not as if Ryan Moore has played much golf himself since withdrawing from the Northern Trust in August with a back injury. We have only seen the UNLV product in action twice since, missing the cut on the number during both stops in 2021.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I believe these odds should be flipped around, but Redman's range of outcomes will make this a scary proposition. Moore has failed to crack the top-60 at TPC Scottsdale in his last four tries, but it hasn't always been doom-and-gloom for him in the blistering heat of Arizona.

1.00 Units to Win 1.20

Chris Kirk -115 over Cameron Champ

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

After missing the American Express cut, Cameron Champ struck the ball beautifully at the South Course on Friday at Torrey Pines but imploded with a 79 after losing nearly eight shots with his short game to miss his second straight weekend. TPC Scottsdale's perception is that distance will play a massive advantage for the young American, but I worry about the start we have seen from him to begin the year. If anything, I believe this venue is more of a second shot track, which will take away some of the perceived upside Champ brings to the table.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The number has moved a little before the article could be released, but I still like it at -120. Champ looks broken with his short game and will probably need a week off to fix whatever issues are currently plaguing his poor start to 2021. A 67th-place finish here in 2019 doesn't exactly ring promise for the big-hitter out of California, and it is a spot I am happy to oppose his current form.

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

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2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (2-1-0)

+ 0.69 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

3-6-0 (-3.49 Units)

2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41

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