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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (78-43-8), netting over 42 units of profit and over a 64% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!
Free Head-To-Head Selection
Brendan Steele -110 over Adam Hadwin
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Brendan Steele in H2H is just as scary as using him in cash-game builds for DFS, but it is essential to remember that the American had produced seven top-26 finishes in a row at TPC Scottsdale before his failed back-to-back ventures in the last two years. Adam Hadwin is a safe commodity that never entirely burns you, but his general lack of upside is an intriguing thing for me to target with a golfer that I believe is underrated for the week.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
There is just too much volatility on the end of Steele. He could go out and top-five this tournament, or he could just as easily miss the cut. These are not ordinarily matchup wagers that I like attacking, but my math on the American has him safer than one would expect. It doesn't mean I want to compound this by taking him in DFS cash-game contests, but this feels like a good situation to grab a number that is baking in the erratic nature of the 37-year-old.
1.10 Units to Win 1.00
Sebastian Munoz +110 over Matt Kuchar
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Sebastian Munoz is the most mispriced golfer on the entire slate. The head-to-head market did correct this slightly by placing him against a player that has dominated in recent years in Arizona, but there is no doubt that Matt Kuchar hasn't looked like his old self in recent months. A missed cut at the Sony Open was a surprise result with the way he had performed historically in Hawaii, and while I don't believe we see him miss another weekend, something outside of the top-50 does feel in play for the American.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Mathematically, this was the most significant edge I could find for the event. I say that with extreme caution because I don't weigh course history nearly as much as most people that compile numbers and data together, but it is hard to argue against Kuchar receiving the full benefit of his past results at the venue. It doesn't mean we can't see him turn back the clock for a weekend, but his irons aren't quite as stout as they once were.
1.00 Units to Win 1.10
Doc Redman +120 over Ryan Moore
Reasons I Liked the Play:
It is a pure number grab. I worry about Doc Redman's current form, but it is not as if Ryan Moore has played much golf himself since withdrawing from the Northern Trust in August with a back injury. We have only seen the UNLV product in action twice since, missing the cut on the number during both stops in 2021.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
I believe these odds should be flipped around, but Redman's range of outcomes will make this a scary proposition. Moore has failed to crack the top-60 at TPC Scottsdale in his last four tries, but it hasn't always been doom-and-gloom for him in the blistering heat of Arizona.
1.00 Units to Win 1.20
Chris Kirk -115 over Cameron Champ
Reasons I Liked the Play:
After missing the American Express cut, Cameron Champ struck the ball beautifully at the South Course on Friday at Torrey Pines but imploded with a 79 after losing nearly eight shots with his short game to miss his second straight weekend. TPC Scottsdale's perception is that distance will play a massive advantage for the young American, but I worry about the start we have seen from him to begin the year. If anything, I believe this venue is more of a second shot track, which will take away some of the perceived upside Champ brings to the table.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
The number has moved a little before the article could be released, but I still like it at -120. Champ looks broken with his short game and will probably need a week off to fix whatever issues are currently plaguing his poor start to 2021. A 67th-place finish here in 2019 doesn't exactly ring promise for the big-hitter out of California, and it is a spot I am happy to oppose his current form.
1.15 Units to Win 1.00
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2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (2-1-0)
+ 0.69 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Matthew NeSmith -105 over Mackenzie Hughes | 1.45 Units to Win 1.38 | MC (-1) | T19 (-15) | Loss | -1.45 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch -110 over Erik Van Rooyen | 1.25 Units to Win 1.14 | T21 (-11) | T56 (-4) | Win | 1.14 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Will Zalatoris -130 over Marc Leishman | 1.30 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-8) | T18 (-5) | Win | 1 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
3-6-0 (-3.49 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Talor Gooch +100 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-3) | T14 (-16) | Loss | -1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson -120 over Collin Morikawa | 1.15 Units to Win 0.96 | T4 (-19) | T7 (-18) | Win | 0.96 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -115 over Cameron Smith | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-3) | T62 (-8) | Loss | -1.15 |
| American Express | Sepp Straka -110 over Joel Dahmen | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Brian Harman -110 over Si Woo Kim | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-14) | 1 (-23) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Wyndham Clark -115 over Peter Malnati | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (-5) | MC (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Sungjae Im -110 over Brooks Koepka | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Corey Conners +100 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T37 (-2) | T29 (-4) | Loss | -1 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T53 (+1) | 1 (-14) | Loss | -1.1 |
2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Davis | American Express | 80 | 3 |
| Webb Simpson | Sony Open | 12 | 4 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 35 | 5 |
| Jon Rahm (Live R2) | TOC | 25 | 7 |
| Brian Harman | American Express | 66 | 8 |
| Adam Scott | Farmers Insurance | 50 | 10 |
| Luke List | Farmers Insurance | 250 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)
Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
Win Big With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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