PGA Betting Advice: Players Championship - Head-To-Head Selections

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the Players Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-39-7), netting over 46 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

*** Historically, the Florida swing has always been one of the most difficult stretches for me to handicap. Weather can change events on a dime, and I always prefer to lessen my exposure - particularly at an event such as the Players Championship that sometimes doesn't have much rhyme or reason behind outcomes.

Bryson DeChambeau -107 over Tommy Fleetwood -109

Reasons I Liked the Play: We missed the initial movement here that had Bryson DeChambeau at a plus-number against Tommy Fleetwood, but I still believe there is enough meat left on the bone at his new price of -107. I'm not typically one that makes too many of my weekly wagers near the top of the board, but Fleetwood has a few statistical flaws that are hard to overlook. According to my model, the Englishman ranks outside the top-100 in proximity from 125-175 yards and par-five birdie or better percentage. Those are both categories of concern that could prevent the 10th-ranked player in the world from creating scoring chances, and the last thing you need at a difficult venue such as TPC Sawgrass is to not take advantage of the easier holes at the facility. I assume we will continue to see this price move over the next few days and expect DeChambeau to eventually close between -115 to -120.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Fleetwood's success at the Players Championship can't be ignored. Two consecutive top-seven finishes help to highlight his strengths, and the 29-year-old is still one of the best ball strikers in the world - especially in windy conditions. I am not expecting a missed cut out of either man, but I do rate Fleetwood to have about a 10 percent greater chance of missing the weekend than DeChambeau. An abundance of wind is not expected in the forecast as of right now, but the ability for this tournament to turn quickly because of weather can't be understated. You aren't going to find a much lower play than this from me, but I only have DeChambeau at about a two percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.75 Units to Win 0.70

Last Week's Results

2-1-0 (+0.74 Units)

We lowered our exposure on all three plays last weekend but were able to escape out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 2-1 record. It will be impossible to know if we could have gotten the job done without a fortunate break on our Tony Finau over Jason Day matchup, which saw the Aussie withdraw during the second round, but a little luck has never hurt anyone.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-9-0 (+6.41 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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