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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/11/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Friday's slate of MLB games brings us several big-time pitching matchups and not one, but two NRFI kings who are undefeated on NRFIs over the entire first half of the season!
You may have guessed that Paul Skenes is one of those kings, and you'd be right. But if you guessed Tarik Skubal as the other one, you'd be wrong. You'll have to read the rest of the article if you want to find out who the other NRFI king is. Oh, and also read on if you want to see the reasoning for all five of my NRFI bets on tonight's slate.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, July 11, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months with better hitting conditions.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 11, 2025)
- Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers: 7:10 pm
- New York Mets at Kansas City Royals: 8:10 pm
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins: 8:10 pm
- Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals: 8:15 pm
- Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres: 9:40 pm
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SEA: Luis Castillo
- DET: Tarik Skubal
We don't love when these NRFI odds get puffed up beyond -150, so if you have a hard number that you won't wager straight bets over, then just pair this one with the PIT-MIN game (parlay odds listed in the PIT-MIN write-up).
Happy Tarik Skubal bump day to all who celebrate! 🐅🔥#RepDetroit
📸: @tigers pic.twitter.com/9caqTej4ZS
— Tony Dombrowski (@tonydombrowski) July 11, 2025
The odds are justified, I would say, considering Skubal is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball and brings a 15-3 NRFI record into this matchup. Add in the fact that Castillo, despite having a fairly average season, is a NRFI stalwart with a 17-1 record this season and an active 10-game NRFI streak.
Skubal should dominate here, and the Mariners are just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games. I have some faith in Castillo, too, as he's been able to work around some baserunners all season but has yet to give up the dreaded first-inning home run.
New York Mets at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- NYM: Kodai Senga
- KCR: Michael Wacha
After missing over a month of action, the Mets get their ace, Kodai Senga, back on the mound tonight. While Senga's surface numbers are great, his NRFI record is just "okay" at 9-4. I like picking on the Royals, though, as they rank 27th in wRC+ vs. RHP over the last month.
Michael Wacha, Dirty 81mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/4ee9FiTthD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2025
But I buried the lede here; the real story is that Michael Wacha, despite being an incredibly boring pitcher, is our other undefeated NRFI king. His NRFI record is now 18-0 on the season, and he'll face a Mets team that was held in check in both games of yesterday's doubleheader against Baltimore.
This one isn't a slam dunk like some others on today's card, but that's also why we are getting some of our best odds here, too. I think it's worth the risk.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins NRFI (-180 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PIT: Paul Skenes
- MIN: Joe Ryan
It's a bit of a shame that the Pirates and Royals didn't play one more game in their series, as we could have had the matchup between both NRFI kings in a Skenes-Wacha duel. However, this matchup is arguably better as Joe Ryan (14-3 NRFI) is easily a better overall pitcher than Wacha.
Twins and Pirates have adjusted their rotations, creating a helluva Friday night at Target Field: All-Star Joe Ryan vs. All-Star Paul Skenes, followed by a postgame Nelly concert. pic.twitter.com/072xt8SIhV
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) July 10, 2025
These odds are not ideal, but we have two pitchers who are top-10 arms (Ryan is badly underrated in my opinion). The Pirates' offense scares no one, and the Twins should be no match for Skenes, too. As I mentioned earlier, if you don't want to bet these juiced-up odds as straight bets, then consider the parlay.
The Skenes/Skubal Parlay Special: NRFI in DET/SEA + PIT/MIN = +150 DraftKings
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATL: Grant Holmes
- STL: Matthew Liberatore
Man, this slate is loaded with some good pitching, including the red-hot Grant Holmes, who has emerged as Atlanta's number two starter with Spencer Schwellenbach and Chris Sale both on the shelf with injuries.
Grant Holmes over his last 2 starts:
12 IP 7 H 2 R 6 BB 15 K
44 whiffs🔥🔥Swing and misses are coming in bunches over the last week!! pic.twitter.com/5lYUjbYp4b
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) July 6, 2025
Holmes has been racking up strikeouts and has been fantastic on NRFIs this season with a 16-2 record. He's riding an 11-game NRFI streak coming into this one, too. I love the Kenny Powers haircut and persona, too, I mean - who doesn't?
As far as Liberatore goes, he hit a wall in late May and early June, but has bounced back and re-established himself as a reliable starter for the Cards. He brings a solid 13-4 NRFI record into this game and a three-game NRFI streak.
The Braves have struggled against LHP lately, too, as they rank just 26th in the league in wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PHI: Ranger Suarez
- SDP: Ryan Bergert
Suarez is having one of the best seasons that not many know about. He's been phenomenal for Philly, and his dominance has been evident in the first inning as he carries an 11-1 NRFI record and 0.75 first-inning WHIP.
Remove a rough season debut, and Ranger Suarez has a 1.22 ERA on the season 💰 pic.twitter.com/i7BKcVmV03
— Drew Balis (@drewBbalis) July 5, 2025
The Padres continue to slump on first-inning offense, going just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games.
San Diego will send Ryan Bergert to the mound to make just his sixth start of the season. He is 5-0 on NRFIs through his first five starts, however, with an impressive 0.40 first-inning WHIP and .063 batting average allowed.
While the Phillies' offense is usually one to avoid, their most recent trend is just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games.
This might be the best value on the slate, considering we have two pitchers with great success in the first inning and two offenses trending in the wrong direction.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Orioles (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Athletics (6)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Red Sox (.404)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Red Sox (.466)
Conclusion
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