X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NRFI Betting Today - No Runs First Inning Best MLB Picks and Odds (Friday 7/11/2025)

Grant Holmes - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/11/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.

Friday's slate of MLB games brings us several big-time pitching matchups and not one, but two NRFI kings who are undefeated on NRFIs over the entire first half of the season!

You may have guessed that Paul Skenes is one of those kings, and you'd be right. But if you guessed Tarik Skubal as the other one, you'd be wrong. You'll have to read the rest of the article if you want to find out who the other NRFI king is. Oh, and also read on if you want to see the reasoning for all five of my NRFI bets on tonight's slate.

On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, July 11, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?

NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."

We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months with better hitting conditions.

The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.

 

Best First Inning Bets Today (July 11, 2025)

  • Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers: 7:10 pm
  • New York Mets at Kansas City Royals: 8:10 pm
  • Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins: 8:10 pm
  • Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals: 8:15 pm
  • Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres: 9:40 pm

 

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-165 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers

We don't love when these NRFI odds get puffed up beyond -150, so if you have a hard number that you won't wager straight bets over, then just pair this one with the PIT-MIN game (parlay odds listed in the PIT-MIN write-up).

The odds are justified, I would say, considering Skubal is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball and brings a 15-3 NRFI record into this matchup. Add in the fact that Castillo, despite having a fairly average season, is a NRFI stalwart with a 17-1 record this season and an active 10-game NRFI streak.

Skubal should dominate here, and the Mariners are just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games. I have some faith in Castillo, too, as he's been able to work around some baserunners all season but has yet to give up the dreaded first-inning home run.

 

New York Mets at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers

After missing over a month of action, the Mets get their ace, Kodai Senga, back on the mound tonight. While Senga's surface numbers are great, his NRFI record is just "okay" at 9-4. I like picking on the Royals, though, as they rank 27th in wRC+ vs. RHP over the last month.

But I buried the lede here; the real story is that Michael Wacha, despite being an incredibly boring pitcher, is our other undefeated NRFI king. His NRFI record is now 18-0 on the season, and he'll face a Mets team that was held in check in both games of yesterday's doubleheader against Baltimore.

This one isn't a slam dunk like some others on today's card, but that's also why we are getting some of our best odds here, too. I think it's worth the risk.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins NRFI (-180 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers

It's a bit of a shame that the Pirates and Royals didn't play one more game in their series, as we could have had the matchup between both NRFI kings in a Skenes-Wacha duel. However, this matchup is arguably better as Joe Ryan (14-3 NRFI) is easily a better overall pitcher than Wacha.

These odds are not ideal, but we have two pitchers who are top-10 arms (Ryan is badly underrated in my opinion). The Pirates' offense scares no one, and the Twins should be no match for Skenes, too. As I mentioned earlier, if you don't want to bet these juiced-up odds as straight bets, then consider the parlay.

The Skenes/Skubal Parlay Special: NRFI in DET/SEA + PIT/MIN = +150 DraftKings

 

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers

Man, this slate is loaded with some good pitching, including the red-hot Grant Holmes, who has emerged as Atlanta's number two starter with Spencer Schwellenbach and Chris Sale both on the shelf with injuries.

Holmes has been racking up strikeouts and has been fantastic on NRFIs this season with a 16-2 record. He's riding an 11-game NRFI streak coming into this one, too. I love the Kenny Powers haircut and persona, too, I mean - who doesn't?

As far as Liberatore goes, he hit a wall in late May and early June, but has bounced back and re-established himself as a reliable starter for the Cards. He brings a solid 13-4 NRFI record into this game and a three-game NRFI streak.

The Braves have struggled against LHP lately, too, as they rank just 26th in the league in wRC+ over the last 30 days.

 

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Starting Pitchers

Suarez is having one of the best seasons that not many know about. He's been phenomenal for Philly, and his dominance has been evident in the first inning as he carries an 11-1 NRFI record and 0.75 first-inning WHIP.

The Padres continue to slump on first-inning offense, going just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games.

San Diego will send Ryan Bergert to the mound to make just his sixth start of the season. He is 5-0 on NRFIs through his first five starts, however, with an impressive 0.40 first-inning WHIP and .063 batting average allowed.

While the Phillies' offense is usually one to avoid, their most recent trend is just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games.

This might be the best value on the slate, considering we have two pitchers with great success in the first inning and two offenses trending in the wrong direction.

 

Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games

  • Best NRFI hit rate: Orioles (100%)
  • Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (40%)
  • Most First Inning Home Runs: Athletics (6)
  • Best First Inning Batting Average: Red Sox (.404)
  • Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Red Sox (.466)

 

Conclusion

With several elite arms on the mound and two undefeated NRFI kings headlining the action, tonight’s slate offers premium NRFI betting value.

From Skenes’ dominance to Wacha’s perfect NRFI record, this is a night built for MLB NRFI bets.

I've broken down the best matchups using recent form, pitching splits, and lineup trends to bring you five of the sharpest NRFI bets today.

Whether you’re backing a strong parlay or just making straight bets, tonight’s card is packed with opportunity.

Don't forget to check back daily for the best NRFI betting insights and analysis, and thanks for reading!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF