RADIO
Ellis' betting breakdown for the three NFL playoff matchups this Sunday (1/15) that continue Wild Card Weekend. The Dolphins take on the Bills, the Giants head west to face the Vikings, and the Ravens face the red-hot Bengals.
We’re back with round two of this Wild Card Weekend bet preview. We have three games this Sunday, all of which were decided by three points or fewer at one point in time this season.
With two divisional games and one game between two of the least trusted NFC teams, it will definitely be an interesting Sunday. Unfortunately, two of these games showcase backup quarterbacks, with both Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa being ruled out.
Yesterday, I released a preview for the Saturday games, which included game picks against the spread, the over/under, and player props for each team. In this article, I am going to do the same for the Sunday games. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Wild Card Weekend Sunday preview.
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Dolphins vs. Bills (1:00 PM ET)
These two teams met twice in the regular season. The first game was Week 3, where the Dolphins snuck out a gutsy 21-19 victory in the scorching heat. Their second matchup was also a nail-biter, with the Bills erasing an eight-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Tua Tagovailoa has had two more concussions since that game and will be out for (what is likely) the rest of the season. Tua played a key role in both of these tight games, but Skylar Thompson will be at the helm this week. The line is currently set favoring the Bills by 13.5 points, and an over-under mark of 43.5 points.
Bills
This team is hard not to love. Sure, their handling of punter Matt Araiza was questionable at best. However, everything else about this team is awesome; their coach, the QB, their defense, and most importantly, Damar Hamlin. That’s right, Hamlin has been discharged from the hospital after a miraculous start to his recovery.
The high-flying Bills Mafia now faces a Dolphins team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game on the season. However, this number drops from their season average of 234 yards per game to 183 yards over their last three games. Meanwhile, over the last three games, the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and the fourth-fewest on the season. If the Dolphins have turned a corner with their pass defense, this is a tougher matchup than expected.
Tough matchup or not, this Bills team can explode against anyone. Their pass game goes through star receiver Stefon Diggs, who was fifth in yards, fifth in targets, and tied for second in touchdowns at the position. Plus, Dawson Knox was fifth at the TE position in touchdowns. Even if the Dolphins slow down this offense, it’s hard to see Skylar Thompson keeping up.
Dolphins
That’s right, Skylar Thompson is the second seventh-round rookie quarterback we get to see these playoffs. Unlike Brock Purdy, Thompson hasn’t been picture-perfect with a 1-1 record. However, his two starts haven’t been a walk in the park. His two games were not only against division rivals, but also two of the toughest defenses in the Jets and the Patriots. This week, he finishes his divisional trifecta against a middle-of-the-pack Bills defense.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the Kansas State prospect, there is a lot to like. After ripping up the preseason, there was reason to believe the Dolphins had found a gem. Although his starts haven’t been horrible, he only has 256 passing yards in his two combined starts. Thankfully, he has all the weapons you can ask for in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson Jr.
The Bills are allowing the 15th-fewest passing yards per game, but also the fifth-fewest rushing yards. As a result, Thompson will need to have a career day against an average passing defense to have a shot of pulling the upset.
Ellis’ Picks (MIA vs. BUF)
Dolphins +13.5 ✅, Over 43.5 ✅
As I hinted at above, this matchup really comes down to two things; can the Dolphins' defense put on a clinic and get turnovers? And can Skylar Thompson keep a level head and give his team a shot? Both are big asks for this team; however, Josh Allen was second in the league in interceptions (14) and had the most red-zone interceptions (five). It’s hard seeing Josh Allen make careless mistakes in the playoffs, but that’s going to be the key for this Dolphins team. I can’t see the Dolphins pulling the upset, but give me the plus points with a defense that has been on fire lately. Even though I like the Dolphins' defense, stopping Allen and company is another kettle of fish. So I’m leaning over on this one, too.
Player Prop Parlays (MIA vs. BUF)
Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs
Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions
Stefon Diggs Over 50 yards
+300 ✅
Tyreek Hill Over 50 yards
Skylar Thompson Over 0.5 TDs
Skylar Thompson Over 191.5 yards
Dolphins Over 1.5 Field Goals
+600 ✅
Giants vs. Vikings (4:30 PM ET)
This game is awesome. Two of the most disrespected QBs find themselves head-to-head on the playoff stage. Despite holding one of the best records in the league, the Vikings find themselves desperate for respect. As for the Giants? Brian Daboll has worked his magic and completely turned this team around. On Christmas Eve, this game came down to a magical Saquon Barkley touchdown that tied the game, and a last-second Vikings field goal for the win. Let’s hope for another great game this weekend.
Giants
Let’s just take a second to appreciate what this Giants team has done. With a QB that was on the verge of getting laughed out of the building and leading WRs of Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins, they managed to make the playoffs. Huge props to Daboll, Barkley, and Daniel Jones for piecing together a successful season.
I know the defense played a large role in getting this team here, making plays at opportune times to close out games. However, statistically, this team wasn’t great at stopping both the pass and the run. They averaged the 14th-most passing yards against and allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game. What this team thrived at was keeping games close and limiting turnovers.
I’ll be honest, there is nothing flashy statistically about this team. Sure they have an elite running back, but other than that, nothing stands out. The real X factor here is the experience of Coach Daboll and that Jones was one of five QBs to surpass the 700 rushing yard mark. If this team can establish a dynamic rushing attack between Jones and Barkley and also not turn the ball over, they might just do what they have done all season: win games.
Vikings
The statistic that has followed the Vikings all year is that they have a negative point differential. What’s interesting is that they are one of three playoff teams with that, joining the Dolphins and the Giants. However, their 13-3 record brings it to the spotlight more often than the other teams.
As much as I would like to throw away that statistic and tell you why this team is so much more than their point differential, I can’t. Despite being sixth in passing yards per game, they are also averaging the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed the second-most yards per game in the league. Despite their records, these two teams are quite similar in the sense that they defy statistics and find ways to win.
No Vikings write-up would be complete without the mention that they are 11-0 in one-score games. This seems to overshadow their embarrassing 40-3 loss to the Cowboys, and that they managed to fall 30+ points behind the Colts (yes, I know they came back and won that game). All this to say, when you have a WR like Justin Jefferson who led the league in receptions and yards, anything is possible. This game looks like another one-score game, putting their 11-0 streak on the line.
Ellis' Picks (NYG vs. MIN)
Vikings -3.0 ❌, Under 48.5 ❌
Something tells me that the Giants are going to be a hot upset pick this weekend. As much as I love this team (specifically Daniel Jones) finally getting some respect, I think we have to give the Vikings some respect. The Vikings' three losses all have one thing in common, they were great defenses.
Early in the year, they played the hottest defense in the league in the Eagles, then turned around and played a stingy Cowboys team, and finished it off against a Packers team that was playing at an elite level down the stretch. As I mentioned in my breakdown, this Giants team is not that kind of defense. As a result, give me the Vikings by a field goal. Plus, the Under 48 feels like a steal when you have Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones in the spotlight.
Player Prop Parlays
Daniel Jones Over 289.5 total yards
Saquon Barkley Over 100.5 total yards
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD
+350
Dalvin Cook Under 69.5 rushing yards
T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 receptions
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD
+700 ❌
Ravens vs. Bengals (8:15 PM EST)
The last divisional matchup of this weekend takes place in the AFC North. Despite playing last week, these two rivals meet again in the same place. This year, the Bengals lost their only matchup against Lamar Jackson in Week 5; however, they handled business last week against the third-string QB, Anthony Brown. The only worrisome part here is that Brown nearly threw for 300 yards in that game. With Lamar Jackson already ruled out, we surprisingly see the Bengals as only 8.5-point home favorites with a weak over-under of 40.5 points.
Ravens
Without Lamar, this team just isn’t the same. This begs the question if they will ever be the same if Lamar decides to switch teams, but that’s for another discussion. As of Friday night, this team has yet to name their starting QB between Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown. That’s not a good sign.
Either way, this Ravens team possesses a WR corps that rivals only the Giants for the most names you either don’t recognize or thought they retired. Here are the names that highlight this group: Devin Duvernay, DeSean Jackson, James Proche, Sammy Watkins, and Andy Isabella (yes, those last two are now on the Ravens). Despite this list of electric talent, none of them cracked 500 yards on the season.
Thankfully, the heart of the receiving game for the Ravens comes in the form of their TE, Mark Andrews. The bad news is that he has had his worst stretch of games over the end of this season. Even with the downgrade at the QB position, you would hope he’d have found the endzone or had more than two games with four-plus receptions since Week 6.
This weekend, they face a Bengals team that has been very solid on defense all year. Despite losing their top corner in Chidobe Awuzie mid-season, they allow the ninth-most passing yards per game and the seventh-fewest rushing yards. Much like the Dolphins, I struggle to see either Huntley or Brown keep up with this Bengals offense.
Bengals
The Joe Burrow for MVP train has left the station. Unfortunately, this is one of those trains with two locomotives and Patrick Mahomes is the one in the front. Either way, Burrow had an incredible season. Passing for nearly 4500 yards and 35 touchdowns, he enters the playoffs riding a nine-game win streak.
Burrow may be the face of the franchise, but there are many parts of this team that have had amazing seasons. Ja’Marr Chase seems to be the forgotten elite WR due to his mid-season injury. However, that didn’t stop him from averaging 11 targets, 7.25 receptions, 87.2 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns per game.
In fact, since Week 4, he doesn’t have a game with fewer than seven receptions and eight targets. Meanwhile, on the opposite side, is another star WR in Tee Higgins. In Higgins’ 13 full games played, he averaged 77 yards, six receptions, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Plus, I have yet to mention Tyler Boyd.
I bring up the receivers because the Ravens have allowed the fifth-most yards per game to the position over the season. Meanwhile, they allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards to the RB position. Although Joe Mixon is one of the most reliable backs in the game, he failed to average over 60 rushing yards per game this year. As a result, I can’t see the Bengals having any issue airing out the ball against a beat-up Ravens team.
Ellis' Picks (BAL vs. CIN)
Bengals -8.5 ❌, Under 40.5 ❌
Call me a homer, but I think this is a pretty easy call. The Ravens want to run the ball, and with D.J. Reader back and healthy, the Bengals have been among the best in the league at stopping the run. Therefore, if you’re telling me the Ravens will need to rely on the arm of Huntley or Brown and keep up with Burrow, the writing is already on the wall. I never want to rule out a great coach like John Harbaugh, but it’s tough to see the Ravens having the firepower on either side of the ball in this one. I love the spread in this game; however, the over-under is tough to get a pulse on. I’m leaning the under as I see the Bengals either blowing this game out or the Ravens finding a way to slow down this dynamic offense.
Player Prop Parlay (BAL vs. CIN)
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing TDs
Joe Burrow Under 0.5 interceptions
Ja'Marr Chase Anytime TD
Bengals -6.5
+375 ❌
J.K. Dobbins Under 60.5 rushing yards
Justin Tucker Over 2.5 Field Goals
+1600 ❌
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