NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 1): Targets and Avoids

September 8, 2018

The NFL is back and expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Get those Sunday excuses for your significant other ready because football is back baby! No need to stress about what your Sunday plans entail as football is the only thing to do from 1:00 PM to days end.

I've been writing this column for years and I'm very excited to tackle another season of helping you in your survivor pools. With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize the team I like. It will look like this: Patriots -7 vs. Jets.

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

2018 Survivor Outlook

This is going to be a really tough year in survivor pools. There are a ton of good teams out there, more than I can remember in recent years.

Let's break down each division in the NFC to start. All the teams in the NFC East can win any given week. The NFC North has three teams like that, but I'm also inclined to say all four because I think the Bears will be frisky. The Panthers, Falcons, and Saints will be dueling for the division title while the Bucs win three games. The Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers will all win at least eight games, while the Cardinals look to be a bottom feeder. However, if/when Sam Bradford gets injured, Josh Rosen could come in and give many teams a scare. All in all, it's going to be really difficult picking against NFC teams.

As for the AFC, it's more wide open. The AFC East only boasts the Patriots. The AFC North has the Steelers and Ravens while the Bengals can get to seven wins. The Browns are well, the Browns. The AFC South has four good teams. Same for the AFC West except the Raiders will be a train wreck.

Survivor League Strategy

I used to have rules for how to go about making your survivor picks each week, but rules are meant to be broken especially in a year like this. Here are my guidelines.

1) Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Browns and the Bucs.

2) Try to avoid divisional rivalry games. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Some weeks the best option will be a divisional bout.

3) Avoid underdogs (however I really like one this week).

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week. There will be a game or two a week where the line makes NO SENSE where they are begging you to bet one side. When the spread looks like an easy cover, it rarely is. Vegas is giving you an inside scoop and they're mostly always right. I will point those spreads out each week.

The biggest favorites in Week 1 per sportsbook (home team in caps):

• SAINTS -9.5 vs. Bucs
• PACKERS -7.5 vs. Bears
• RAVENS -7 vs. Bills
• VIKINGS -6.5 vs. 49ers
• LIONS -6.5 vs. Jets

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

Top Survivor Picks for Week One

This week is mostly always the hardest week. We don't know anything about these teams. I don't really care for preseason because the starters barely play. September is the month where teams figure out what they are. With limited practice time under the CBA, teams don't have as much time as they used to to gel. Don't overvalue September games.

RAVENS -7 vs. Bills

I feel bad for Nathan Peterman come Sunday. He gets the honor of starting behind an awful offensive line going up against a ferocious pass rush. On top of Baltimore's defense being third in defensive DVOA last season, M&T Bank Stadium is going to be mightily loud. The Bills offense will score 10-13 points. Peterman will look lost, but it can't be much worse than his first career start. 

The Ravens offense will be fine. Joe Flacco was so bad last season, but now with Lamar Jackson looming on the sideline, he knows he needs to step it up. He'll connect on a deep ball or two in what will be a comfortable win for the Ravens.

Ravens 27 - Bills 10

COLTS -3 vs. Bengals 

If Andrew Luck were completely healthy this line would be seven. He loves playing at home where he owns a 24-11 career record.

The Colts can't be worse than last year where they lost by double digits in six of their 12 games. I expected this game to be low scoring, but the over under is 47. I guess Vegas is expecting Luck to thrive and put up points.

The Bengals may be a surprise team, but I can't take Andy Dalton over Luck.

Colts 30 - Bengals 14

SAINTS -9.5 vs. Bucs

This should be an easy 21-point Saints win, but a couple things make me hesitant. This looks too easy; Drew Brees against Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Saints high octane offense against the worst ranked defensive unit per DVOA last season. I don't know why I'm getting the feeling the Saints will play down to the Bucs and make this way more interesting than it needs to be.

Another note to add, the Saints play at home against the Browns next week. They're a better play then.

Saints 28 - Bucs 20

Titans -1.5 vs. Dolphins

There's always that one game in Week 1 with two teams that are not really thought about in the offseason with a really close line that ends up being a blowout. This is the one. The public is really undervaluing the Titans this season. They're going to be vastly improved from last season where they made the Divisional Round. They have a new head coach, Mike Vrabel, who seems to have brought new energy to this team. If you watched "Hard Knocks with the Houston Texans" two years ago, you may remember Vrabel as a charismatic bundle of energy. That's the polar opposite of his predecessor, Mike Mularkey.

Mularkey operated a ground and pound offense which went against Marcus Mariota's greatest strength, his legs. Let him run around and make some things happen. He has the ability to. Vrabel knows that. Last year he was the linebackers coach in Houston and got to see Deshaun Watson first-hand. Vrabel hired Matt LaFleur to be their offensive coordinator. He was the OC for the Rams last year, the highest scoring offense. Sean McVay called the plays, but LaFleur was right there with him.

The 38-year-old LaFleur installed a completely new offense. He’s going to let Mariota use his legs. That offense scored 20 points per game last year ranking 20th. I expect them to be a top 10 offense this season with the addition of running back Dion Lewis and the expected emergence of second year wide receiver Corey Davis.

Their defense should be much better after they plucked cornerback Malcolm Butler from the Pats. Vrabel, who won three Super Bowl's with the Patriots as their linebacker, is in charge of the defense. This defense was 10th in opponent yards per play last season and return their leader defensive end Jurrell Casey. Vrabel is going to make this defense really good.

As for their opponent, I'm not sure what they did this offseason to improve. Their best moves were getting rid of players. They traded Ndamukong Suh to the Rams and Jarvis Landry to the Browns. Center Mike Pouncey was released and picked up by the Chargers. Those players had 12 Pro Bowls combined. Their head coach wants to install a new culture. In the long run, it's the smart thing to do. But it's going to take time. That's why they brought in players like Danny Amendola and Frank Gore. Amendola comes from New England, the best culture in the NFL. Gore is a veteran of the game who can teach everything about it on and off-the-field to the younger players.

In the short team though, I know what I'd getting with Ryan Tannehill. The Fins offense stinks. They're a team that seems like they can score about 17-20 per game. The Titans offense has the upside to score about 27-30 per game. Mariota is going to look like a star on Sunday.

Don't be the one saying, 'How'd I not see this coming?' Titans roll.

Titans 37 - Dolphins 17

PACKERS -7 vs. Bears (Sunday night)

The Bears just made a major splash trading for Khalil Mack. He joins a defense with Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith. This will obviously make life more difficult for Aaron Rodgers Sunday night, but nothing he shouldn't be able to handle. It's going to take some time for Mack to completely gel with the defensive unit. Green Bay should easily win. But they get the Bills at home in Week 4 and Dolphins at home in Week 10. Save them.

Packers 31 - Bears 20

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Jaguars -3 @ GIANTS

I absolutely LOVE the Giants this week. Their offense is going to be dynamic this season. They have such weapons in Beckham, Barkley, Shepherd, and Engram. Their defense will return to what they were in 2016. The Jags defense is world class, but their offense stinks. I still don't buy Blake Bortles. He's going to revert to the Bortles we all know and love. The Jags will be playing from behind Sunday meaning Bortles will have to make some throws. That's not going to happen.

Giants 23 - Jaguars 17

Steelers -5.5 @ Browns

The Steelers played in Cleveland to open last year's season winning 21-18. I expect a similar type game. The offense couldn't do much because Le'Veon Bell wasn't up to full speed after his holdout. Not until Week 4 did Bell tally 100 combined rushing and receiving yards. He held out once again this year so expect him a similar slow start just like last year. He is what makes the Steelers offense go. Without Bell at full speed, they will struggle to score.

Steelers 19 - Browns 16

PATRIOTS -6 vs. Texans

Firstly, this is way too early to use the Patriots. This is a team you need to save. If that doesn't do it for you, of the last five openers for the Pats, they're 3-2 with all those wins by single digits. On the other side, Deshaun Watson went into Foxborough in his second career start last year and threw for 300 yards on 22/33 passing. He threw two touchdowns, two picks, and ran for 41 yards. The Patriots ended up scoring with 23 seconds left to win.

If you're scoffing at the notion New England would lose their home opener, it happened last season.

This line feels two points too high. Probably because the Patriots are a public team.

Patriots 30 - Texans 27

LIONS -6.5 vs. Jets (Monday night)

Looking at the Lions schedule, this is the best time to take them. Having said that, I'm a little nervous about this game. The Lions have been awful at home in prime-time games the last five years.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Detroit underwhelms on the biggest stage. The Jets have an underrated defense. Their offense is led by Sam Darnold who has tons of confidence. He will have no fear being the youngest starter in NFL's history on Monday Night Football. I'll be a homer and take the Jets outright.

Jets 23 - Lions 20

The Rest

EAGLES -2 vs. Falcons

Atlanta's my dark horse pick in the NFC and I think they get their season started with a win. Their season ended last year in Philly in the Divisional Round when Julio Jones dropped the would-be touchdown (those last four goal-to-go players were the worst four I've ever seen, but that's beside the point). The Falcons added another weapon on offense in wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Head coach Dan Quinn was Seattle's defensive coordinator in the Legion of Boom days. He's been building this defense the first three years of him being head coach and this year everything is expected to come together. The Eagles are banged up. After they watch their first Super Bowl banner raised, they'll come out firing on all cylinders but those emotions will wear off. Atlanta will be the better team over the course of 60 minutes. Falcons outright.

VIKINGS -6.5 vs 49ers

So the Niners won their last five games last season thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmy G had the entire offseason to learn the intricate playbook of Kyle Shanahan. The team also made some free agency improvements, but not as big as the Vikings. They made the league's biggest splash in signing Kirk Cousins. They also added defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson.

This line feels off. It should be five. Does Vegas want you to bet the Niners so they made the line two points or so too high? This is a best bet of mine because the it really feels like Vegas is begging you to take the Niners.

CHARGERS -3.5 vs. Chiefs

I don't understand why the Chargers are getting an extra half-point when they have no home-field advantage and there will probably be more Chiefs fan in the stadium then Chargers. This will be a tight battle. One interesting nugget: the Chargers have not beat the Chiefs their last eight tries.

BRONCOS -3 vs. Seahawks

Another tight battle coming. I'd lean toward Seattle because of quarterback play.

PANTHERS -2.5 vs. Cowboys

This may turn into a blowout in favor of Carolina. I could see the Panthers scoring a touchdown on their opening possession. When Cam Newton gets off to a hot start, he gets his swagger and confidence going. This all while The Clapper does his thing on the sideline.

Redskins pick'em @ CARDINALS

What a perfect line this is. Never know what you're going to get out of these teams. I like the Cards though because Sam Bradford plays very well in September.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Rams -5.5 @ RAIDERS (Monday night)
Way too risky to use the Rams on Monday Night Football in the Black Hole.

 
Good luck, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 2.

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