RADIO
Wildcard weekend is officially here. After four months of non-stop football, we are in the final throws of the season now. There are just 13 games left now, so we have to enjoy and take advantage of the last few betting opportunities that we have available to us for this NFL season before it's gone again.
We had a tough go of things in Week 18, but we were extremely close on a number of our plays. Zay Jones was just a yard away from a long touchdown that would have put him over the top of his number. Hayden Hurst had a reception for seven negative yards that hurt his day as a whole. We hit on Aaron Rodgers as he and the offense just couldn't get the passing game going all night. The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes bullied the Las Vegas Raiders, but he didn't come anywhere close to his yardage number.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18
O35.5 Yards Longest Completion
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Excluding Week 18 when Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady attempted just 17 passes, Brady hit this mark just five times in 16 games. There was a stretch in the middle of the season, when the team was struggling, where a line like this was an automatic bet on the under. However, those numbers are weighted down a bit by struggles throughout the middle part of the year.
In their eight wins, Brady hit this line in five of the team's eight wins. When they were winning, they were making big plays through the air with Brady connecting with wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin down the field. Brady hit this line in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys, and the Cowboys have been struggling on defense with injuries throughout their secondary as of late. If Tampa plans on winning this game, they’ll need big plays on offense.
O2.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +115
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne was touted as a multi-talented running back coming out of college. In 17 games this season, he had just 35 receptions, which translates to just over two receptions per game. He had three or more receptions in eight games this season, including the team’s Week 3 throttling of the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have been easy to run on all season long, but they change up their approach defensively on a weekly basis.
Against the Jaguars, Lawrence had his second-lowest average depth of target and second-fastest time to throw that he did all year. The Chargers were willing to give up running plays and check downs. On the year, the Chargers had the sixth-fewest completions to running backs allowed, but they gave up six receptions to the Jaguars' backs alone, as James Robinson also had three receptions in that game. In the nine full games, Etienne exited after just five snaps in Week 12, since the Jaguars traded Robinson, Etienne has hit this mark in 5-of-9 games. If this game gets a little shootout-heavy, Etienne could be extra active in the passing game.
U17.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker is in the middle of a hot streak with 23 or more carries and 100 or more yards in each of his last three games. Despite that, I’m going to fade the guy that’s playing for a team that has gotten absolutely boat raced in two games this season. The Seahawks have been outscored 48-20 in two games this year, and the games never even seemed that close with the 49ers leading 21-3 at one point in the most recent meeting in Seattle.
In two games against San Francisco this season, the Seahawks have totaled 28 carries as a team. That is due in large part to the game script we’ve seen in both outings, but that’s unlikely to change in this one. Seattle’s defense has gotten worse while San Franciso continues to get healthy and put up points like crazy as they’ve scored 33 or more points in five of the six games they’ve played with quarterback Brock Purdy as the primary quarterback. Unless Seattle gets an unlikely lead, Walker likely won’t be running as much as they’d like.
James Cook
O37.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
With the Miami Dolphins starting third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson, there is a strong chance that this game is going to turn into a blowout. As the year wore on, it became clear that Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was the team’s preferred option to run out the clock. He’s only hit this mark in five games this season, but he’s also hit it in three of his last five games and four of his last seven, including back-to-back games to end the season.
The Dolphins have been strong at defending the run all year. They’ve given up the third-fewest rushing yards this season to opposing running backs, and, in the previous meeting between these two teams, they gave up 34 yards to Cook on just five carries, along with 42 yards to Devin Singletary. Unless something dramatically changes, the Bills should be leading a hefty amount, and Cook will be heavily involved.
Ja'Marr Chase
O55.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: +105
For this play, we’re riding the hot hand. Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been the most consistent piece of the team’s offense all season long. In 12 games, Chase had 87 catches for 1046 yards and nine touchdowns. That works out to an average of 7.25 catches for 87.5 yards per game. In regards to this number, Chase hit this in nine of his 12 games, and his three misses were in the first month of the season when the offense was struggling.
Chas has caught seven or more balls in eight straight games, and he’s seen double-digit targets in nine of his 12 games this year. In two games against the Ravens, he’s caught seven and eight passes in each matchup. The Ravens give up the fifth-most receptions to opposing wideouts, and, whenever quarterback Joe Burrow has to get rid of the ball, he’s throwing to Chase. His offensive line is beaten up, and he’ll be leaning on his favorite target often in this one.
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