RADIO
We’ve made it to Week 9. After Monday night, we’ll officially be more than halfway through the season, and it just never stops flying by. It feels like just yesterday that we were all getting excited for Week 1. As far as this column goes, we’re still in the green by a little more than four units from the start of the season, but I really want to get a strong green week to stack even more wins up to push towards the end of the year.
Last week was just our second losing week of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 10 carries after his defense gave up a two-touchdown lead and was forced to throw the ball more. Nico Collins and the Houston Texans couldn’t move the ball at all through the air, and Kenny Pickett got hurt to secure the losing week. We had wins from Alvin Kamara and DeVonta Smith, but it was still tough to end the week in the red.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9
Alvin Kamara O32.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -115
Our first play for this week goes back to someone that gave us a win last week in New Orleans, Saints running back Alvin Kamara, but this time we’re going to his receiving skills. Kamara missed the first three games of the season, and he still has seven more receptions than any other running back this year while ranking 6th in receiving yards among backs. He’s hit this mark in four of his five games this year, including three straight games.
This week, Kamara draws a Chicago Bears’ defense that has been surprisingly strong against the run, but they’ve been extremely easy to throw on especially to running backs. Chicago has allowed the third-most receptions to running backs along with the most receiving yards. Quarterback Derek Carr has made a concerted effort to take care of the ball and that has often resulted in a fair bit of checkdowns to Kamara. Even if he isn’t able to break a big play, his volume should be high enough to get him over this mark.
Tank Dell O3.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell was one of the breakout players of the year during the first month of the season. Following a concussion that knocked him out of a game early and forced him to miss the team’s next game along with a bye week thrown in there, he has kind of fallen to the backburner. He’s in a great spot to bounce back this week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that hasn’t been great at defending the pass this season. While Dell hasn’t hit this mark since Week 3, I’m still confident in the matchup.
Dell played 78 percent of the snaps last week and saw only four targets, but the team as a whole struggled passing the ball with quarterback CJ Stroud passing for a season-low 140 yards. The Bucs allow a completion percentage of 69.6 percent to opposing wide receivers, and they’ve allowed 12 different wide receivers to hit this mark this season, including three different ones last week alone. Dell is due for a strong week, and this is a great spot to make it happen.
Jonathan Taylor O64.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been steadily improving this season, and he’s ready for one of those big signature games we have seen from him in the past. He’s gone over this mark in each of the last two weeks, including a 95-yard showing on just 12 carries last week against the Saints. Now, he gets the Carolina Panthers who have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to backs this season and rank last by DVOA against the run with a mark nearly three-times worse than the 31st ranked team.
Since his return, last week was the first time in four games that he had outsnapped teammate Zack Moss, and I expect that to continue moving forward. Taylor is averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last two weeks, and I think this is the last time we get a line like this on Taylor this year. Former head coach Frank Reich is on the other side, but I just don’t think the Panthers have the horses to slow down this horse.
Dalton Kincaid O36.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Bet Rivers
Odds: -117
I’m riding a hot hand on this one in a game that I expect to be hotly contested and close all the way through. The Buffalo Bills and tight end Dalton Kincaid have a high number of receiving weapons, and Kincaid has steadily inserted himself into the upper echelon of that group this season. With Dawson Knox (wrist) out with an injury, Kincaid has seen a big uptick in his workload. Kincaid has hit this mark three times this season, including two straight games.
Knox will be out for this week’s matchup, and no other tight end played a single snap for the Bills last week in their win over the Bucs. The Bengals have given up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and, when looking at the playoff matchup between these two teams from last year, Knox led the team with five catches for 65 yards on the day. The Bengals will make a concerted effort to slow down the outside pass catchers for Buffalo, and I think that sets up Kincaid for a strong day in the middle.
Jalen Hurts O32.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Our final play of the week is one that we’ve gone to before, and we’re going back to it with Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts. Through eight games, Hurts has gone over this mark six times, including five of his last six games. The Eagles have one of the best running games in the NFL, but they have had to throw the ball a fair bit due to getting into shootouts, which is a possibility this week against a Dallas Cowboys offense that has some strong receiving options.
The Cowboys rank third and ninth against the pass and run respectively, but I still think Hurts is going to have to throw in this game. I’m largely basing this play on the idea that the game is a bit of a shootout. If it turns into a blowout in favor of the Eagles, then we may be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening with how their secondary has been playing as of late. I’ll ride Hurts again in this one.
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