RADIO
We’ve made it to Week 7. We’re officially more than one-third of the way through the season, and it seems like just yesterday that we were getting the season started when the Detroit Lions beat the Kansas City Chiefs to open the year. From a gambling standpoint, we’ve had some wild things happen, but as far as this column is concerned, we’ve been steadily chugging away to the tune of 4.37 units of profit. We just have to keep building on that to make that number grow week by week.
Week 6 was another winning week for us although it wasn’t without a little bit of sweat attached. Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram finished with exactly 41 receiving yards, and he even lost a yard before immediately gaining it right back. Chicago Bears wideout D.J. Moore got a fifth reception somehow someway after being essentially invisible in the first half. If the Seattle Seahawks had some effectiveness in the red zone, we likely would have had a 4-1 week with Joe Burrow missing his over by just three attempts.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7
Curtis Samuel O3.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: +112
Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel has been a wet blanket for those who were big on second-year wideout Jahan Dotson entering this season, but he’s been a consistent thorn in the side of opposing defenses over the last few weeks. Samuel has gone for at least 40 receiving yards in five of the team’s six games this season, and I wouldn’t fault anyone playing his receiving yards over 35.5 yards at most books as of this writing. However, I like the additional juice we’re getting here by playing his receptions line.
Samuel has hit this line in four out of six games this year, including three games with five or more catches. In two games against the New York Giants last season, he caught nine of his 12 targets for 107 yards. The Giants allow a completion percentage of 67.6 percent to opposing wideouts, which is the ninth-worst mark in the NFL. I think the Giants are scrappy enough to keep this game close and force Washington to continue scheming up touches for Samuel.
D'Andre Swift O3.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: +110
Over the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift had five receptions on seven targets. Over the last three weeks, he’s secured 18 of the 20 targets that have come his way. Coincidentally this year in the games that have been the closest for Philly, Swift has seen an uptick in his workload in the receiving game. I think that should continue in a game that has matchup-of-the-year potential against the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins’ offense continues to set records with each passing week. Against an Eagles secondary that is banged up and has struggled all season long, they could force Philadelphia to abandon the run early and start putting the ball in the air. The Dolphins allow the second-highest yards per reception to opposing running backs, and I think the Eagles exploit that by getting Swift involved in the passing game.
Drake London O48.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
I’m probably going to get bit hard on this one for taking the cheese, but I’m going to take the bait anyway because I think the matchup makes a ton of sense here. After a few slow games to start the season, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London has started to establish more of a connection over the last couple of weeks. He’s hit this mark in back-to-back weeks, and he’s clearly become the favorite target for quarterback Desmond Ridder.
London has hit this mark in three games this year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to hit this mark nine times in five games, including four different WR1s. The lone miss was New Orleans Saints wideout Chris Olave in the game where quarterback Derek Carr had a shoulder issue that affected his throws. While the Bucs are struggling to defend the pass, they continue to be a strong run defense, with the sixth-fewest rushing yards allowed to opposing backs this season. Assuming his volume doesn’t change, I like London in this spot.
Rashee Rice O36.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
We’re in another spot here where I could be getting influenced by recency bias, but I like the matchup anyway. The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed the sixth-most total receiving yards to opposing wideouts, and the main reason they aren’t last on the list is because they had a bye week that saved them from adding more yardage to that total. In terms of receiving yards per game, they’re 15 yards worse than the second-worst team.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is the best wide receiver on the team already, and he’s only played in six games and the fourth-most snaps at the position. Despite his low snap count, he is second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s third on the team in catch percentage among pass catchers with at least 10 targets behind only Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce. Rice is due for a big game in terms of targets, and I think this could be the week. He’s only hit this mark twice this year, but this is the perfect spot for him to make it a third.
Najee Harris U52.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -115
For our final play of the week, we’re targeting a running back who has just had some tough sledding since he got into the NFL. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has seemingly been running into a wall for three years in a row. He’s averaging fewer than four yards per carry for the third straight year and unfortunately for him, among running backs with at least 25 carries, he ranks 12th-worst in rushing yards before contact.
The Rams aren’t the NFL’s best run-stuffing unit, but they can still cause some issues in that area. They’re in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs, and Najee has gone over this mark just twice in five games. In those games against the Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders, Harris was matched up against rushing defenses that grade even lower than the Rams by DVOA.
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