RADIO
We have made it to Week 18 and the final week of the regular season. For this week's column, the focus was on games where at least one team had something to play for. Additionally, I placed a focus on players with incentives within reach in the final week because we know that those teams will be working to get those guys in positions to hit those marks. Let's get some wins to close out the regular season.
It was another rough week in Week 17. We started strong with the easy cash for Travis Etienne, but things just stopped going our way after that. Isaiah Pacheco and the Kansas City Chiefs were dominating the majority of the game, but they were refusing to run the ball to preserve their lead. In regulation, Josh Jacobs went under, but he went over on the team's first drive of overtime. Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers were throwing a little bit, but they were running at will and had less need to throw. Our final loss of the week was Keenan Allen. He finished with 60 yards, but he saw his fewest targets in a game since he returned in Week 11 which resulted in the low performance.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18
O324.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -112
We’re starting this week off with one of the most reliable producers from all season long. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and he’s likely going to be receiving his second MVP award in his young career at the end of this season. Mahomes has hit this mark in nine games this season, and he’s somewhat within reach of the single-season passing yards mark.
Mahomes needs 430 passing yards to break the single-season passing yards record, and he cleared that mark once earlier this season. On the year, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. They held Mahomes in check to a certain extent in their first matchup, but this seems like one of those games where Andy Reid and the Chiefs, who are vying for a share of the top spot in the AFC, will be trying to light up the scoreboard all game long.
O29.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst has had some strong flashes throughout the season, but he’s often been inconsistent due to playing in an offense with so many receiving weapons. However, we have seen one common theme for Hurst this year. In his two revenge-game opportunities, the team made a concerted effort to get him the ball. Hurst has hit this line in six games this year, and two of his three highest yardage totals this year came against the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons, his two previous teams.
In the prior meeting between these two teams, Hurst caught six of his seven targets for 53 yards, and he also found the end zone for only his second touchdown of the season. The Ravens are in the bottom 10 for receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends, but the Bengals are still playing for playoff seeding in this one. I could see them getting Hurst involved early on in the game to open up room for the receivers to work.
U255.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
Through 16 games, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been up and down throughout the year. He and the team are riding high following a blowout win over the Minnesota Vikings to stretch their winning streak to four. However, they haven’t been throwing the ball a ton this year, especially in their recent stretch of wins. In this four-game stretch, Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 240 yards. In fact, on the year, he’s hit this mark just twice, and one of those came against Detroit when he threw the ball 43 times.
Rodgers has gone under this mark in 14/16 games, and he hasn’t cleared it since Week 9. Green Bay’s defense and special teams has been generating short fields with regularity for Rodgers and the offense, and, if that continues this week despite matching up against a team that’s top 10 in offensive and special teams DVOA, things could get spicy. I think Green Bay runs the ball and heads into the playoffs with a head of steam.
Isaiah McKenzie
O30.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie has been up and down this season, but he can also be a big play waiting to happen when the defense isn’t paying attention to him because they’re too focused on the team’s other wideouts. McKenzie has hit this mark just five times this season, but one of those five was in the team’s win over the New England Patriots in Week 13. The Pats were focused on taking away quarterback Josh Allen’s room to run the football, and MckKenzie benefitted, as he was second on the team in yards and third in receptions.
The Patriots have a strong defense at taking away the pass, as they’re second by DVOA against the pass. They’re also eighth against the run. The Bills run more to keep the defense honest than any other reason. Instead, they like to use short passes to their athletes in space. That’s where McKenzie comes into play. He’s athletic enough to make one or two big plays happen, and that’s all it will take to hit this number. Additionally, he’s 46 receiving yards away from a $100,000 bonus, so we could see Allen give him a few extra targets this week.
Zay Jones
O55.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Our final play of the week is Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Zay Jones going over his receiving yards total tonight. Looking back at his season, Jones has only hit this number in six games, but one of those six was against the Tennessee Titans that he’s playing against tonight. The Jaguars leaned heavily on the running game last week, but they won’t be able to do that in this matchup. The Titans are second by DVOA against the run, but they’re 28th against the pass.
In the previous matchup between these two teams, the Jaguars totaled just 60 rushing yards as a team, but they had 368 passing yards. The Titans have had nearly two weeks to rest all of their key starters after resting the majority of them for Thursday night football. I’d expect their run defense to be at it’s peak levels which will put more emphasis on Jones and the rest of the pass catchers. Tennessee has allowed the third-most receiving yards to wideouts, and I think that number grows more tonight.
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