RADIO
We’ve made it to Week 13 of the NFL season. We’re nearing the end of the bye weeks, although this is a particularly loaded week with multiple popular teams getting the week off, and we’re nearly in the home stretch of the NFL season now. We’re slightly in the red after last week, but our reads are in the right place. Just need that oblong weird shaped ball to bounce our way once or twice here to really get things flowing.
To say that I’m frustrated about last week’s losses would be an understatement. We had all the makings of a sweep week, but the gambling gods said that it wasn’t meant to be. Dalton Kincaid caught five of six targets for 38 yards in the first half. He didn’t see a single target in the second half. Isiah Pacheco had 15 carries, but he only had 55 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs getting in a quick 14-0 hole didn’t help our cause. We had three relatively sweat-free wins otherwise, but those two losses still had me pissed off at the end of the day.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 13
Tyreek Hill O97.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Our first prop of the week has us going back to a guy that we haven’t bet on in several weeks. Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill is on pace to break the single-season receiving yards record, but he still needs a strong finish to the season to get there. This number is incredibly high, and I usually don’t love targeting lines like this. However, this week had a couple of things that kind of forced my hand. For one, a lot of key players around the league are dealing with injuries, and that is holding lines up. For two, the volume that Hill gets makes this number look more attainable than most.
Hill has seen nine or more targets in all but one game this season. That lone exception was the team’s blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills. He’s hit this number in seven of his 11 games this season, and I think he makes it eight of 12 this week. The Washington Commanders rank last in receiving yards allowed to wideouts, and they allow the second-longest yards per reception to opposing wide receivers. With Hill’s explosiveness, he just needs one or two plays to get in striking distance of this number.
Sam LaPorta O38.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
For the second prop of the week, I’m more than willing to admit that I’m a little shaken by the play, but I’m going to attack it anyway because I think the line is great for Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta. LaPorta has hit this line in nine of his 11 games this year, and he remains a key piece of their receiving game. He’s second on the team in targets, receptions and yards, and he’s tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns.
The two reasons for concern with this one are that the Saints have been strong against tight ends this season, as they’ve given up the 13th-fewest yards to the position, and the fact that the Saints have a depleted receiving corps and should be playing with diminished weapons. If that’s the case, this game could be a blowout where the Lions are running the ball a lot. However, the Saints are a strong run defense, and I think Detroit could have to throw more than expected, so I like taking advantage of the lowered line on LaPorta here.
Samaje Perine O2.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +114
Our third play of the week is one that’s a little game-script dependent, but I think that we’ll be on the right side of things here. Denver Broncos running back Samaje Perine has a very clear role on this team. He’s the guy catching passes out of the backfield, and he does it fairly often. He’s hit this mark in six of his 11 games, and the Houston Texans haven’t been great at preventing passes to the running back this year. They’ve given up the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing backs, and they allow an 81 percent completion rate to the position.
The safer route for Perine would be to take his receiving yards, which is a line he has hit in nine of 11 games, but I think the Texans are going to be able to move the ball against Denver and force the Broncos to throw more than they might like. Perine is the type of player that can go 80 percent of the game with no targets but still cash this on the last drive, which is exactly what he did against the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago. Perine is third on the team in targets, and he’s caught 33 of his 37 targets. If Russell Wilson can find him early, we could be in for an early cash during a two-minute drill.
Sam Howell O38.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: -105
On this one, I’m breaking my second rule of this column by targeting the same game twice, but I think that we have a great spot that we have to take advantage of on this one. Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been absolutely chucking the ball around the yard this season, and he throws it a whole heck of a lot. This number is high, but he has still hit it in nine of his 12 games this season, and two of the three games where he came up short were in the first three weeks of the season.
Howell has hit this number in six straight games, including a game with 52 attempts thrown in the mix. I expect the Dolphins to move the ball with ease in this game, and that will result in more attempts for Howell. The main thing that we’ll be watching for in this one is for the Dolphins to not fall behind early. Washington is willing to run the ball, and they’re decently successful at it. As long as this game has points the way that I expect, I think Howell should crush this line.
Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +120
This is just our third time this season going to the touchdown well, and it’s also tied for the longest odds of any bet we’ve played in this column. However, I love this spot for Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White this week. The Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to running backs this season with 19 allowed on the ground. Prior to last week, White had scored in three straight games, and he’s scored five total times this season.
The main thing benefitting White, besides the strong matchup, is his utilization. He has 199 total touches this season. The next closest running back is Ke’Shawn Vaughn with 26. White is on the field constantly, and he capitalizes on it. I didn’t love the lines that were being offered for White’s rushing or receiving options, and that’s why I ended up here. Most backs against the Panthers are usually a short favorite, but I like the odds that we’re getting here on a guy that gets a high volume and has a strong matchup.
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