RADIO
We've made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, which in many people's eyes, is the best weekend of the NFL season. You're getting four games between the eight remaining teams that are presumably the best the NFL has to offer. Teams that got a bye last week, or in the case of the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, have been on a break for two weeks after resting most of their key starters in Week 18. This column remains in the green for the year, but we are still seeking the elusive 5-0 week. Maybe this is going to be that week where we really stack some cash!
It was another 3-2 week for us last week, and I thought we had a chance for a 4-1 performance heading into Monday night. Despite blowing the Philadelphia Eagles out for much of the game, Baker Mayfield had six passing attempts on his second-to-last drive to go over. Jordan Love had just one carry all night, and he used it to troll the Dallas Cowboys on their home turf. Across the board, we got easy wins from Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, and Joe Flacco, although Flacco’s back-to-back pick-sixes did have me worried that he was going to get pulled early in the blowout loss. Regardless, it was another week in the green.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Divisional Weekend
Devin Singletary U15.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -103
Our first prop of the day is a mildly uninspiring one just because nobody loves betting unders, but it’s one that I think has some value on the surface. The Houston Texans and running back Devin Singletary have been a great pairing this year. Singletary was brought in as the change of pace back to work alongside second-year man Dameon Pierce, but as the season went on, Singletary became the full-time guy. Despite that, he wasn’t exactly a heavy carries guy. His 216 carries this season were a career-high, but he was still averaging just 12.7 attempts per game.
In 17 games, he went over this number just five times, and multiple of those games were blowout wins. I don’t expect the Texans to be blowing out the Baltimore Ravens this week, and it’s not a great matchup either. The Ravens were seventh by DVOA against the run, and during the regular season, they had the 11th-fewest carries against them by opposing running backs. The only logic to this line being this high is that the Ravens’ passing defense was the best in the NFL, but I don’t think we’re going to see a high-volume game from Singletary here.
George Kittle O52.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
The San Francisco 49ers and tight end George Kittle are arguably the most dangerous team in the playoffs. They have talent everywhere on both sides of the ball, and they can beat you in so many different ways. I think that Kittle is poised to have a big game against the Green Bay Packers defense in this one. Kittle hit this number in eight of his final 10 games this year, and in five career games against the Packers, he’s hit this number three times.
Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay gave up 10 completions on 12 targets for 93 yards to Jake Ferguson. Part of that was due to the conservative scheme they were deploying with such a large lead, but they also just tend to allow a high completion percentage to tight ends. Kittle is also the type of player that gives Green Bay fits with his ability to break tackles. He can take a catch that should be a five-yard gain and turn it into 15 or 20 in a hurry. As long as Green Bay is able to stay close, I like Kittle to have a strong outing in this one.
Amon-Ra St. Brown O90.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
We’re going back to the well on this one. Detroit Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown paid off for us last week, and I think he’s in a great spot to go two weeks in a row. The Lions are playing the Bucs for the second time this season, and in the first matchup, St. Brown was running circles around his defenders. He caught 12 of his 15 targets for 124 yards, and that was just one of the 11 times that he’s cleared this mark this season.
The Bucs allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this season, and even in a game last week where the Eagles were missing their top receiver option, wideout DeVonta Smith still caught eight of his 12 targets for 148 yards. The Bucs don’t have a great plan for stopping top wide receiver options, and while they’re eighth by DVOA against the run, they’re 14th against the pass. Personally, I think that number is a little inflated by playing the NFC South, which doesn’t exactly have a murderer’s row of passing attacks. (The Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints all ranked 18th or worse by DVOA at passing the football.)
Travis Kelce O6.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: +122
This is our longest odds play of the year, but I still think that we’re getting a great spot for Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. The veteran has had a down year by his standards, but as he’s done in years past, he plays to a different level in the postseason. Last week, he caught seven of his 10 targets for 71 yards, and multiple of those incompletions were drops. Kelce has only hit this number six times this season, and he only had six against the Buffalo Bills earlier in the year. Despite that, I have confidence due to the volume that he sees.
In his two career postseason games against the Bills, Kelce caught eight and 13 passes. That was a couple of years ago, but the Chiefs offense is even more concentrated on him now than it was then. With no Tyreek Hill around, it’s Kelce and rookie wideout Rashee Rice who see nearly all of the volume, with those two seeing 22 of Mahomes’ 41 attempts last week.
The Bills allowed a 72.8 percent completion rate to tight ends this season, and in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, they gave up five catches on eight targets to tight end Pat Freiermuth. The yards are probably a safer play for Kelce, but I like the volume on this one.
Jordan Love O246.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Our final play of the week takes us back to tonight for what I expect to be the final game of the season for quarterback Jordan Love and the Packers. Green Bay are big underdogs to San Francisco for good reason, but I still think they can move the ball through the air against this defense. Even if the game starts to get a bit out of hand, that would just prompt them to throw the ball more. Love has only hit this mark nine times this season, including last week, but eight of those nine times have come during the team’s last 10 games.
The Packers were fourth by DVOA at passing the football, and the 49ers were fourth against it while being 15th against the run. Green Bay will likely use the run to set up the pass, and that worked to great effect last week. The Packers had the eighth-most passing yards this season on play-action passes. This bar isn’t the easiest for Love to clear in just his second career playoff game against a tough opponent, but he hasn’t blinked yet over the last month. I think he can keep it rolling this week.
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