RADIO
We've made it to Conference Championship Weekend. There are just four teams remaining, and after tomorrow, there will be just one day of football left until next fall. We're still sitting in the green in this column at +1.43 units, but man we are jumping rope with how hard these books are making us work to grind out some profit.
After starting the week with the easy 2-0, I thought we were on track for a fantastic week. Then, everything fell off the rails. Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love had 175 yards entering the fourth quarter, and he got 19 more the rest of the way. Detroit Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown caught eight of his 14 passes, but he couldn’t break any big plays with his longest catch of the day being just 16 yards, which was only the fourth time all season he didn’t have a 20+ yard reception in the game. Finally, Travis Kelce caught five of his six targets, but he saw zero targets in the fourth quarter. The missed field goal was the final dagger in our hopes of a week in the green.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
Zay Flowers O41.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Odds: -113
Our first prop of the day is going back to a player that we haven’t looked at since way back in Week 3. Baltimore Ravens wideout Zay Flowers didn’t put up the gaudy numbers of other rookies, but when your team is winning games by an average of 17 points per game, that’s going to happen. Regardless of that, Flowers has cleared this mark several times this year. In fact, he’s hit in 12 of the 17 games he’s played this year.
The Chiefs have been one of the best defenses in the NFL this year. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to wideouts this year. However, I think much of that has been due to how they’ve schemed up their defense. Against the Ravens, I think they’ll be scheming to keep Lamar Jackson from running as much as possible. With that being the case, I expect to see a heavy dose of Lamar’s passes go in Flowers’ direction. This is a great buy-low spot on an explosive receiver that has hit this mark on one reception four different times this year.
Patrick Mahomes O1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: -110
The Ravens allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. So betting on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to throw two of them is asking to lose money, right? Right. Anyway, that’s what we’re going to be doing in this one. The Chiefs offense has been stuck in the mud for much of the season, and they haven’t been nearly as effective as past years. However, Mahomes and this offense seem to be figuring things out at the right time, which has been a common theme for them in the Mahomes era.
In the win over the Miami Dolphins, he had just one passing touchdown, but they got into the red zone six times in 10 drives. Last week against the Buffalo Bills, they got into the red zone five times in seven drives, with two of their drives being kneel downs to end the half and the game. Mahomes had two passing touchdowns, and he probably would have had another if it weren’t for a fumble out of the end zone by Mecole Hardman Jr. The matchup isn’t spectacular, but I’ll buy low on Mahomes here.
Brandon Aiyuk O76.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
The weather last week was terrible for the San Francisco 49ers offense, but wideout Brandon Aiyuk and the rest of the offense should be in a much better spot this weekend. With that in mind, I’m going to target that explosive young wideout against a defense that I think still has weaknesses to expose. The Detroit Lions were the top-ranked defense by DVOA against the run this year compared to the 16th-ranked defense against the pass. Specifically, the Lions gave up the third-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, and they were one of just five teams to allow more than 3,000 receiving yards to the position.
Aiyuk has been a bit quiet as of late. Over his last two games, he has just 57 receiving yards on six catches, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The weather was an issue for quarterback Brock Purdy last week, and he didn’t play the full load of snaps in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. Aiyuk has hit this mark seven times this season, and I think that he's in a great spot to hit it again this week. The Lions have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year at allowing explosive plays, and that's where Aiyuk thrives.
Jahmyr Gibbs O45.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -114
We got burned by Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs a few weeks ago, but we’re going back to the well on this one. Gibbs has been an explosive player all season long, and his fresh legs are starting to show through. Gibbs had 13 touches last week, and he generated two of his team’s four plays of 20+ yards on the day, including a 31-yard touchdown run to regain the lead for his team. Gibbs has hit this mark in 10 of his 17 games this year, including six times in his last nine outings.
Last week, the 49ers were able to put a decent lid on the Packers’ passing game to close things out, but they couldn’t stop Aaron Jones for much of the night until right tackle Zach Tom (concussion) was forced out of the game. Jones had 108 yards on the ground, and 65 of those yards came before contact. There was room to run on this defense, and I think coach Dan Campbell will work to generate explosive runs behind his strong offensive line that led the team to a fourth overall finish by DVOA on the ground.
Brian Branch O5.5 Tackles & Assists
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +110
The final play for the week is taking us to the defensive side of the ball for one that is a bit unconventional. However, there are a lot of numbers pointing toward this being a strong matchup for rookie cornerback Brian Branch. For one, Branch has hit this number in nine of his 17 games this year. On top of that, of the games where he went under this mark, multiple of those outings were games that were blowouts or games where he left early with injuries.
Last week against the Packers, the 49ers had 23 combined tackles to members of the Packers secondary, and that number would have been much higher if it weren’t for the high number of incompletions quarterback Brock Purdy had. I expect him to be more on target this week, and that will increase the number of chances Branch will have here. Branch flies around on defense, and I think after racking up 16 combined tackles in two playoff games, he’s looking to add to that total this week.
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