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Parity is super fun until you are tasked with writing a weekly column where you rank and pick winners in every single game. The final two unbeaten teams are unblemished no more following a chaotic Week 6. The slate won't get any easier in Week 7, with a plethora of lines within three points. The Texans, Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, and Titans are on bye.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 7 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 13 - Buffalo at New England
- 12 - San Francisco at Minnesota
- 11 - Seattle vs. Arizona
If there wasn't a winless team in the league, the Patriots would probably be at the bottom of the barrel. With Mac Jones under center, they can't score with any consistency. The defense, without key pieces, isn't playing well enough to keep the team afloat. The Bills will have zero problems dispatching Bill Belichick's team on the road.
The 49ers suffered their first loss of the season. Despite losing Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and tackle Trent Williams to injury, Brock Purdy still got the Niners into a winning position. A missed field goal in the final seconds put a one in their loss column. Still, they're far too talented to drop back-to-back games and get a mediocre Minnesota team in Week 7.
The Arizona Cardinals have come back down to earth following some surprise performances to start the season. They can't get off the field on defense and Joshua Dobbs has turned the ball over at least twice in each of the last two games. Seattle wins at home with ease.
Semi-Confident Pick(s) For Week 7 Pick 'Em Pools
10 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Pittsburgh
Cooper Kupp did Cooper Kupp things in Week 6 (seven catches for 148 yards and one touchdown). But the former Super Bowl MVP wasn't the key to victory for the Rams. Down by three at halftime, Sean McVay altered the gameplan and came back with a smashmouth brand of football.
Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua are revelations in the Los Angeles offense. The trio of playmakers has brought a buzz back to SoFi Stadium. Williams did suffer an ankle injury at the tail end of the contest and is likely to miss this game, however. The point is that this Rams' offense can score in a variety of ways.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are synonymous with a strong defense. That isn't the case in 2023. They rank near the bottom in rushing yards allowed per game and aren't much better against the pass. A turnaround during a long trip to the West Coast, even after a bye week, would be unexpected.
Wait And See Picks For Week 7
9 - Jacksonville at New Orleans
While the Jaguars offense is slowly rounding into form, it may have to be put on ice for a week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter. Following the game, the former first-overall pick claimed he was feeling "pretty good" but the short turnaround for Thursday Night Football may cause timeline issues.
Jacksonville will rely on Travis Etienne Jr., as they have for the last couple of weeks. When committing to stopping the run, as Indianapolis did in the fourth quarter, that aspect of the Jaguars' offense went stagnant. Etienne rushed five times for zero yards in the final frame. If C.J. Beathard is forced to start, the Saints will be stacking the box.
If Lawrence is ready to roll, the Jaguars should be able to come away with a win in a hostile, primetime New Orleans environment. Keep an eye on his injury status. If Beathard is under center, the pick flips to the Saints.
8 - Las Vegas at Chicago
Aidan O'Connell vs. Tyson Bagent? Brian Hoyer vs. Nathan Peterman? Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Justin Fields?
May as well draw names out of a hat to determine who is going to be playing quarterback in this game. Both Fields (hand) and Garoppolo (back) suffered injuries during Week 6 and did not return. Fields was unable to grip the football following a dislocated thumb. Garoppolo took a trip to the hospital for precautionary tests. Both seem doubtful to play on Sunday.
Bagent and Hoyer were the pair that finished out the games for their respective franchises. O'Connell started in Week 4 when Garoppolo dealt with a concussion. Bagent is an undrafted rookie and the Bears may opt for a veteran under center instead.
As for the rest of the team, Jakobi Meyers is the underrated free agent signing of the summer. He's fit in seamlessly in Josh McDaniels' offense and has formed a top-ten duo with Davante Adams. It may be because the Raiders have played Green Bay and New England over the last two weeks, but the defense has looked competent. That's more than what could've been said a few weeks ago.
The Bears' defense is also improved. The unit allowed one offensive touchdown to Minnesota and held pass-happy Kirk Cousins to just 181 yards. However, Fields regressed back to the quarterback that struggled to begin the season, before he left with his injury.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 7
7 - Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
The NFC South is a nightmare. The top three teams in the standings (Buccaneers, Falcons, and Saints) can compete or get blown out by just about anybody. The Saints, at 3-3, have the best point differential (+13) of the trio. Tampa Bay (who sits atop the division heading into Week 7) is at +2. Atlanta is being outscored by 21 points on the season. Interestingly, both of these teams lost the same way to their sole common opponent: 20-6 to the Detroit Lions.
| Desmond Ridder | Comp. % | Yards Per Game | Touchdowns | Interceptions |
| Home (6 games) | 67.37% | 230.2 | 7 | 4 |
| Away (4 games) | 58.59% | 176.8 | 1 | 2 |
Week 6 actually marked Desmond Ridder's first home loss of his career. On the other end of the spectrum, the second-year quarterback is winless on the road in his young career. He's throwing over 50 yards less per game and has tossed just one touchdown in four starts away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Tampa Bay is good enough to keep Ridder from capturing that elusive road victory.
6 - Cleveland at Indianapolis
The Browns entered their game against the 49ers as a 9.5-point underdog, making the victory their largest upset win since 2010. San Francisco had just 215 total yards against the Browns defense. In all other games, their offense averaged 402.6 yards per game. Cleveland's defense will keep them in most games this season, regardless of which quarterback is under center. P.J. Walker may get the start again in Week 7.
Gardner Minshew showed off his best Ryan Fitzpatrick impression against Jacksonville on Sunday. Against his former team, Minshew threw 55 times for 329 yards. In true gunslinger fashion, he only scored once and turned the ball over four times.
Expect the Browns to bait Minshew into more turnovers and steal this one as road favorites.
5 - Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense appeared mediocre against the New York Jets in Week 4. As it turns out, every top-tier quarterback struggles against Robert Saleh's defense.
Then, the former MVP played just well enough to beat the Vikings. Sure, Minnesota is middle of the pack on defense and down games happen. But then, they scored just 19 points against Denver, the worst defense in the league. That's setting off panic alarms.
The truth is that Kansas City doesn't need to score 35 to 40 points to win this season. The defense is allowing the second-fewest points per game and Isiah Pacheco is toting the rock 4.5 more times per game than he did in 2022. Defense and a strong running game are a proven recipe for winning football games. They just happen to also have the best quarterback in the world.
4 - Detroit at Baltimore
Jared Goff is beginning to shed his label of a quarterback that doesn't perform on the road. In 2022, the former first-overall pick threw 23 touchdowns at home compared to just six away from Ford Field. The ratio is 7 to 4 this season but he's throwing for more yards on the road and just came off of a masterful performance in a victory over Tampa Bay.
If Goff is the conductor, the Lions will be without their engine against the Ravens. Running back David Montgomery (ribs) will miss "some time" according to coach Dan Campbell. While it's not flashy, his downhill running style compliments the play-action passing game to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Craig Reynolds will take over the "bruising" back role, while rookie Jahmyr Gibbs nears his return.
The Lions have passed nearly every other test presented to them this season, including road wins over Kansas City and Green Bay. The Ravens could be their toughest challenge yet. Baltimore gets the privilege of being the home team (after three straight road games including one in London).
This game will come down to scoring opportunities inside the 20. The Ravens have struggled to punch the ball into the end zone, despite career-best completion percentage numbers from Lamar Jackson. The new, Todd Monken-led offense isn't a finely-tuned machine just yet. With that in mind, plus a return trip from the United Kingdom this week, the Lions go into Maryland and take down the Baltimore.
3 - Miami at Philadelphia
If you like scoring, Sunday Night Football in Week 6 was not for you. Be thankful to NFL schedule makers, because points will come in bunches in Week 7. Both Miami (first in points per game) and Philadelphia (seventh) are among the most lethal offenses in the league. The two teams are ranked first and second in total yards per game and the over/under line (52.5) is the highest on the week.
One of the issues that caused Philadelphia to lose to the Jets (other than untimely turnovers from Jalen Hurts) was the injury bug continuing to bite the Eagles' secondary. An already banged-up unit lost three more defensive backs on Sunday, in addition to Darius Slay (knee) and Avonte Maddox (pectoral). Garrett Wilson ended up having a strong game. If he can do that with Zach Wilson, imagine what Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill can accomplish.
The Eagles opened as home favorites. Winning a primetime game at Lincon Financial Field will be extremely difficult, but I like Miami to pull off the upset.
2 - Washington at New York Giants
Yuck.
The Giants are bringing in veteran quarterbacks for auditions which, if you read the tea leaves, doesn't spell optimism for the health of Daniel Jones. Backup Tyrod Taylor moved the offense with some efficiency but couldn't find the end zone. In fact, the Giants haven't hit paydirt on offense since Week 3. Go ahead and double-check the name of the column. We're heading into Week 7.
The Washington Commanders' defense is the most susceptible to opposing wide receivers. The Giants lack playmakers on the outside. The G-Men finally break their touchdown drought but it's not enough to defeat the Commanders in Landover.
1 - Green Bay at Denver
Once upon a time, there were tales of a third-straight elite quarterback in the Frozen Tundra.
That was just four weeks ago. Jordan Love isn't the quarterback he was billed to be after the first two weeks. The offense has sputtered since and looked exceptionally bad against a beatable Las Vegas defense before their bye week.
A remedy lies in the form of the Denver defense. The unit is ranked last in points per game, rushing yards, and total yards allowed. The playmakers (Christian Watson and Aaron Jones) are getting healthier. Watson's involvement jumped in his two games this season. Jones used the bye week to rest his hamstring and should return to the lineup on Sunday.
The fire sale in Denver may just be beginning. They've already let go of pass rushers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark. They're rumored to be shopping wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see more changes to a floundering franchise.
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