RADIO
Sixteen weeks down, two to go. Doesn't it seem like just yesterday that Josh Allen gifted a victory to the New York Jets, who had just lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending Achilles injury?
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Week 17 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - San Francisco at Washington
- 15 - Philadelphia vs. Arizona
- 14 - Buffalo vs. New England
- 13 - Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
- 12 - Cleveland vs. New York Jets
- 11 - Kansas City vs. Cincinnati
- 10 - Jacksonville vs. Carolina
Great teams playing teams in the bottom five. It's easy pickings for San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Buffalo. Not much else to say about those games, other than make sure they're ranked at the top of your list (if you play in a pick 'em league that requires ranking).
The Rams and Browns are on the verge of locking up a playoff spot. Both get to face off against a New York team, where dreams are not made of this season.
Kansas City and Jacksonville are both sputtering through the tail end of the regular season. The Chiefs tanked their chances of hosting multiple playoff games. The Jaguars may be fumbling their playoff spot altogether. A few weeks ago they controlled their destiny to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The good news is that both teams draw winnable matchups against Cincinnati and Carolina, respectively.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 17 Pick 'Em Pools
9 - Dallas vs. Detroit
Home is where the Cowboys win.
The story of Dallas' season has been their ability to win (and blowout) teams in Arlington. On the road, it has been dicey at best, including an embarrassing disaster in Buffalo, a defeat to Arizona, and, most recently, a last-second loss to the Dolphins. At home, the Cowboys are undefeated and outscoring opponents by 25 points per game. Dak Prescott is averaging nearly 83 more passing yards in AT&T Stadium. It's the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde act.
Detroit accomplished what they set out to do this season, winning the NFC North for the first time in 30 years. Not to say they're in for a letdown, but it's tough to pick against Dallas at home, given that these two teams are evenly matched.
8 - Houston vs. Tennessee
Following a two-week absence, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud (concussion) should return to the starting lineup against Tennessee. It couldn't have come at a better time. The Texans are still in contention for an AFC South crown, and nobody wants to sit through a Case Keenum start again.
Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston all sit at 8-7 with two games to play. One team will win the division, while the other two have legitimate shots at a Wild Card berth. Every game from here on out is crucial, especially with a date between the Colts and Texans set up for Week 18.
Two weeks ago, the Texans traveled to Nashville and took down the Titans with Keenum at the helm. With Stroud back under center and the rematch being at home, it's Houston's game to lose. That doesn't even account for the health of Will Levis, who missed last week with an ankle injury.
7 - Denver vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Just a few weeks ago, Denver was listed as a lock for this same matchup, on the road no less. At home, they've been bumped down a section. They were arguably one the hottest teams in football at the time. Now, following a loss to the Patriots at home, the playoffs are a pipe dream.
Even after the debacle on Christmas Eve, the Broncos are still better than the Chargers on paper. They proved it earlier this month. The defense still ranks toward the top of the league in takeaways, which could come often against quarterback Easton Stick. The Chargers are pushing for a top draft pick to turn their fortunes around, with a new coach arriving in the City of Angels soon.
6 - Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
The new hottest team in football is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's four straight wins, including a dismantling of Jacksonville on Sunday. The Bucs are now on the brink of their second-consecutive NFC South title, and they can punch that ticket with a victory over the Saints in Week 17.
Baker Mayfield is playing like a guy who is more than just a quarterback stopgap in Tampa. At this rate, he'll surely sign an extension, deservedly so.
It's hard to find the words to describe the Saints. Everything about them is just mediocre. They've hovered around the .500 mark all season. Offensive and defensive scoring are slightly above average, but just one victory has come against a team with a winning record. I don't foresee them adding another notch to their belt on the road against their division rival.
5 - Seattle vs. Pittsburgh
There's one thing keeping this game from appearing in the section below, and that's the fact that Seattle is at home. That's a long journey for the Steelers on New Year's Eve.
Both teams are battling for a Wild Card spot in their respective conferences. Seattle controls their destiny. Pittsburgh needs to win and get help.
Pittsburgh has proven it can win games, even if the odds and stats are stacked against them. The offense can also fail to show up at all, resulting in an ugly game.
Seattle is similar but doesn't have as dramatic of swings as the Steelers. They stumbled through a gauntlet consisting of San Francisco (twice), Dallas, and the Los Angeles Rams, but have since rebounded with wins over Philadelphia and Tennessee. It's time for the Seahawks to succeed in these final two winnable games (Week 18 at Arizona) and claim their playoff spot.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 17
4 - Minnesota vs. Green Bay
Another game where the winner keeps their playoff hopes alive and the loser is in dire straits, if not worse.
Nick Mullens is careless with the football, which essentially cost them their game against Detroit last week and his starting position for Week 17. Rookie Jaren Hall will be under center against Green Bay. Lucky for him, Justin Jefferson is somewhere down there. Just throw it up to him.
Jefferson will be relied on even more with injuries to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. The Packers may be able to focus their entire attention on shutting down the All-Pro, but will it be enough? That unit allowed Bryce Young to throw for 312 yards (career-high by a wide margin) and two touchdowns. They also allow the third-most rushing yards per game. Jordan Love likely won't have enough firepower against a solid Minnesota defense, if his defense can't slow down Jefferson and Ty Chandler.
3 - Chicago vs. Atlanta
One team has been at or near the top of their division, battling it out for a title all season. One team destroyed their chance at the postseason early on. And yet, one game separates the Falcons and the Bears as we head into Week 17.
Chicago has either won or been competitive in their last six games, culminating in a home victory over Arizona. Every time I count Atlanta out, they rebound with a win over a good team (i.e. last week against Indianapolis). They're much better at home but also have road wins over the Jets and Buccaneers.
The safer, more consistent team (who also happens to be home) becomes the pick this week. If you're trailing in the standings, taking a shot on Atlanta may be a good strategy to try and make up some points.
2 - Baltimore vs. Miami
Baltimore went into San Francisco and cemented their status as one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. A win against the Miami Dolphins and they'll secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
The Ravens claimed one of, if not the best, defense in the NFL for the majority of the season. It was called into question if it would hold up against some of the league's elite and efficient offenses (Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Miami) when they reached this stretch of the season. It's passed the tests with flying colors so far.
The Dolphins are just a hair behind the Ravens in the 'impressive' category. Defeating a Dallas team that struggles on the road is nice, but it's still just their first victory over a team with a winning record.
The injuries are continuing to mount for Miami. Playing with a banged-up offensive line already and Tyreek Hill on a bum ankle, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert both finished Sunday's game with ailments. Their statuses are worth watching throughout the week.
1 - Indianapolis vs. Las Vegas
This game depends on the health of Michael Pittman Jr. Without the star wide receiver, the Colts' offense buckled in Atlanta, even with running back Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup. As with most backup quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew has been inconsistent, and Pittman's absence only exacerbated that.
The quarterback could always rebound and throw for three touchdowns and not turn the ball over, as he did against Pittsburgh the week prior. Or he could force the ball into the hands of the suddenly opportunistic Las Vegas defense.
Antonio Pierce may have the defense playing out of their minds, but the offense reverted to the version we saw before the 63-spot they dropped on the Chargers. Aidan O'Connell threw for 62 yards and the offense as a whole barely topped 200. If that's the case once again, versus an Indianapolis defense that has slowed down the run with Grover Stewart back in the lineup, then the Colts will keep their playoff hopes alive.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
