RADIO
Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us and considering the fact that we didn't have a preseason, we have less information than ever to project how new players and coaches will impact teams on both sides of the ball. Early on in the season, we will need to use 2019 data to project how new players and coaches will make an impact until we have a representative sample of data to rely on for the 2020 season. One situation that is worth monitoring is the Chargers secondary. While Desmond King played the slot for the Chargers in 2019, they signed Chris Harris Jr. in free agency who wanted to play for a team where he could play the slot. If Harris does play the slot, Tyler Boyd could have some problems this week, but if it's King, then Boyd could have a huge game. Until we have more information, we will do our best to help you construct your DFS rosters and set your seasonal-league lineups with wide receivers that have advantageous matchups.
Nothing is more important than matchup analysis when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week-to-week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. The data used here, such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and whether cornerbacks line up predominantly on the left side, right side, and in the slot, is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 1. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games.
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Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
$8,800 FanDuel/$9,000 DraftKings vs Jamel Dean
Out of all the high-end wide receivers this week, I am going with Michael Thomas. In 2019 Thomas scored three touchdowns across two games against the Buccaneers and gained 182 and 114 yards in each respective contest. Tampa Bay was lethal against the run in 2019, giving up just 3.3 yards-per-carry, and there's no reason to think that will be any different in 2020. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders is a little concerning for Thomas because it means Drew Brees has another competent receiver to throw to, but it also means the Buccaneers have another receiver they need to concern themselves with which should help to free up Thomas. The Saints will need to throw a lot in this one to move the ball against the Buccaneers Defense, and Thomas should be the recipient of many of those passes. The Over/Under is set at 47.5 points which means the game should be high scoring. If you don't want to pay Thomas' steep price, you may want to pivot.
Pivot: Chris Godwin - $7,700 FanDuel/$7,100 DraftKings - vs P.J. Williams
Chris Godwin primarily plays the slot when the Buccaneers are in 11-personnel which means he will see a lot of P.J. Williams. The Saints' best cornerback is Marcus Lattimore and he figures to line up on Mike Evans exclusively. In two games against the Saints in 2019, Evans had a total of four catches for just 69 yards and zero touchdowns, and there's no reason to believe he won't continue to struggle against Lattimore this weekend. The Saints Defense is fairly strong against the run, giving up less than 100 yards-per-game on the ground in 2019, which means the Buccaneers will surely need to put the ball in the air a lot in this one. All signs point to Godwin having a big game which makes him a viable high-end wide receiver option in DFS this week. It's also worth noting that Godwin scored three touchdowns in two games against the Saints in 2019.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
$7,100 FanDuel/$6,600 DraftKings vs Damon Arnette
Vegas has the Over/Under of this game set at 47 points and the Raiders are favored which means the Panthers will likely need to throw a lot in this one. Teddy Bridgewater is the new quarterback for Carolina this year and he doesn't typically throw the ball down the field, registering an average depth of target of just 6.1 yards in 2019, which ranked him 37th in the league. Bridgewater's tendencies are bad for Robby Anderson but good for DJ Moore who works primarily in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Given the projected game flow, Moore could be in line for a lot of targets in this contest.
Pivot: D.K. Metcalf - $6,400 FanDuel/$5,800DraftKings - vs Isaiah Oliver
The Seahawks are a run-first team, but the Falcons Defense was actually alright against the run in 2019, giving up just 4.2 yards-per-carry on the ground. Vegas has this game pegged with a 48.5 Over/Under which means the Seahawks and Falcons should both put some serious points on the board. D.K. Metcalf figures to see a lot of Isaiah Oliver in coverage this week who struggled in 2019, surrendering a 67% catch-rate and 1.45 yards-per-route which he covered. Metcalf likely won't see as much volume as DJ Moore, but he is more of a big-play threat and tends to score more than Moore.
John Brown, Buffalo Bills
$6,100 FanDuel/$5,600 DraftKings - vs Pierre Desir
All of the off-season hype in Buffalo has been around Zack Moss and Stefon Diggs which makes it easy to forget that John Brown gained over 1,000 yards in 2019. The opposition will surely need to pay attention to Diggs, which should open up more space for John Brown to operate. Brown is a burner and he will see a lot of Pierre Desir on Sunday. While Desir is a decent cornerback, he's not the fastest player in the world and may have trouble containing Brown, especially if the Jets Defense rolls coverage towards Diggs.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
$5,800 FanDuel/$5,000 DraftKings - vs Richard Sherman
This offseason all of the attention has been on the Cardinals acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins and Kenyan Drake's breakout potential while Christian Kirk seems to be lost in the shuffle after his injury-slowed 2019 campaign. Entering his third year in the league, with a now second-year quarterback Kyler Murray, Kirk should be in for a big season because opposing defenses will focus on slowing down Hopkins. Kirk figures to line up against Richard Sherman for much of the matchup against the 49ers this weekend which is a positive for Kirk as Sherman was somewhat exposed and beat deep at times during the 2019 season.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
$5,700 FanDuel/$4,900 DraftKings - vs Fabian Moreau
The Philadelphia Eagles typically move their wide receivers around the formation to get their play-makers the ball, but DeSean Jackson should see Fabian Moreau for most of the game this week. While Moreau has the wheels to keep up with a player like DeSean Jackson, he's simply not on Jackson's level. With Jalen Reagor banged up, things are setting up for DeSean Jackson to be Eagles' leading receiver this week. If Reagor does end up suiting up this week and you don't feel good about Jackson, you may want to pivot.
Pivot: Allen Lazard ($5,500 FanDuel/$4,900DraftKings) vs Mike Hughes
The Minnesota Vikings secondary has some new faces in it in 2020 and Allen Lazard will have a seven-inch height advantage over Mike Hughes who figures to cover him for most of this contest. Lazard started once against the Vikings in 2019 and was targeted nine times in that game, hauling in just five for 45 yards. While Lazard is clearly the No. 2 wide receiver in Green Bay behind Davante Adams, he could be in for a decent day given his clear size advantage over Mike Hughes.
Chris Conley, Jacksonville Jaguars
$5,100 FanDuel/$4,000 DraftKings - vs Xavier Rhodes
On the low-end, Chris Conley may be a guy you can throw into your tournament lineups or as your WR3 in cash-games which would allow you to squeeze some high-end guys into your lineup. Over the last two seasons, Xavier Rhodes has struggled against speedier wide receivers, matching up better against bigger-bodied wide receivers. Chris Conley can fly with 4.35-wheels and could give Rhodes fits on Sunday. The Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs in this one and will likely throw the ball a ton while playing from behind, making Conley a very intriguing play.
D.J. Chark is the No. 1 receiving option on the Jaguars, but there will be more than enough work in the passing game for both Conley and Chark to come through. As for Rhodes, according to PFF he gave up an 84% catch-rate and 1.50 yards-per-route that he was covering in 2019 which was one of the worst marks in the league.
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