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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for October 1st, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
It has been popular to complain about the quality of Thursday night matchups in the NFL and sometimes those complaints are overblown but maybe not this week as the winless Denver Broncos visit the winless New York Jets.
No matter how bad the teams are, they still offer opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Broncos are 0-3 but were competitive in two of them before a 28-10 loss to Tampa Bay last week. Denver is also turning to Brett Rypien at quarterback. Is it a good sign when a team is on their third starting quarterback of the season in Week 4?
At full strength, the Jets offense is still subpar but they are missing running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Breshad Perriman. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder has also been out but is questionable for Thursday night. If he plays, Crowder should be a factor because he’s a rare proven commodity for quarterback Sam Darnold.
It doesn’t sound like the sexiest NFL matchup because it isn’t, so get some money down on props and make this one a little more exciting.
Here are some angles to consider for the Thursday night Broncos-Jets matchup on Monkey Knife Fight:
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DENVER-N.Y. JETS
MORE OR LESS
Sam Darnold LESS THAN 226.5 PASSING YARDS
The Broncos have surrendered 277.7 passing yards per game through the first three weeks, the fourth-highest total in the league, but they are allowing 6.6 net yards per pass attempt, which is around league average. So they maybe vulnerable defensively, but maybe not quite as bad as the raw passing yardage suggests. Nevertheless, Darnold has thrown for just 187.3 yards per game this season and averaged 232.6 passing yards per game last season. This is a mixed bag, really, but it’s hard to put much faith in the Jets passing game.
Brett Rypien LESS THAN 204.5 PASSING YARDS
Rypien, the 24-year-old nephew of former Washington quarterback Mark Rypien, had a productive career as a four-year starter at Boise St., where he did throw for more than 270 yards per game. The Jets Defense is probably better than the Mountain West defenses that Rypien faced and they have allowed 239 passing yards per game this season, with 6.9 yards per pass attempt. It might seem negative to be expecting less than from both quarterbacks, with entirely reasonable totals, but this does not project to be an offensive showcase.
RAPID FIRE
Jerry Jeudy +0.5 receptions vs. Noah Fant
Both have emerged as favorite targets for Broncos quarterbacks this season. Jeudy, the 15th pick in this year’s draft, has 13 catches on 24 targets and has shown some elusiveness after the catch. Fant, a first-round pick in 2019, has 14 catches on 21 targets, which is close enough to prefer Jeudy in this matchup.
Frank Gore +14.5 rushing yards vs. Melvin Gordon
Gordon has averaged 58 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks, with 14 carries per game, a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. He should get more carries against the Jets, a team allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Gore has run for 48 yards per game on 14 carries per game, just 3.4 yards per attempt. The Broncos Defense is allowing 3.8 yards per carry. So, there is a clear edge for Gordon but if the game is close and the usage is close, it might be difficult for Gordon to exceed Gore’s total by 15 yards.
A couple of wildcards when it comes to usage for these veteran running backs. Phillip Lindsay is still battling turf toe, and may remain out of the lineup but, if he plays, he’ll take touches away from Gordon. For the Jets, rookie La’Miical Perine has 41 yards on 10 carries in the past two weeks as he starts to get involved in the offense, but he has also been limited in practice this week, so maybe Gore will still get the full starter’s workload.
Noah Fant -1.5 fantasy points vs. K.J. Hamler
Hamler is a promising rookie wide receiver who has six catches for 78 yards on 12 targets in the past two weeks (after missing Week One) and, at some point this season, will likely be a more dangerous threat than Fant but, right now, Fant leads Broncos receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
