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Mark Kieffer's March Madness college basketball betting picks for the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament. He recommends top CBB bets including spreads and over/unders.
The Sweet 16 action on Thursday and Friday was nothing short of March Madness! Gonzaga and Arizona are out! St. Peter's, on National Peacock Day, eliminated Purdue! Miami defeated Iowa State to make the Elite 8 for the first time in school history. North Carolina as an 8 seed has a legitimate shot at playing in the National Title Game! We have the Elite 8 going on this Saturday and Sunday and we are in store for some excitement this weekend!
Similar to the first round and second round I am going to share my top betting picks for each subsequent round of the NCAA Tournament here at RotoBaller, and am excited to share my thoughts with you! Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
This article highlights my top college basketball betting picks for the Elite 8 (Saturday and Sunday, March 26 and 27, 2022). I will be posting a spreadsheet with all of my bets for the NCAA tournament. You can follow all of my picks, including live picks, on my Twitter @Mark_Kieffer. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time and reference the odds at Caesars Sportsbook. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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#5 Houston vs. #2 Villanova
Saturday 6:09 PM
I have been choosing Villanova to cover the spread the last two rounds. This is a matchup in which I think Houston is the better team overall. Houston is No. 8 and No. 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Villanova is No. 9 and No. 25 in those metrics respectively. The line has Houston as -3.0 with the total points set to 127.0. The Moneyline has Houston -150 and Villanova +130.
The point spread has moved towards Villanova; the last I checked the line was at -2.5 and now it's at -3.0 telling me that the money was coming in on Houston covering. The -150 for Houston implies a 60% win percentage which might be a tad higher than I was expecting but not crazy high. The point spread and the Moneyline are pretty sharp in this game.
Both teams have won the first half in both of their games, so the first half Moneylines and point spreads aren't a great edge there either. It is going to be close since both teams play at a slow pace (Houston is No. 338 and Villanova is No. 345). I do not have a best bet here but if you are inclined to bet on the game, I would consider betting over 127.0 points. This will be a slow-paced game but it's a game in which overtime is very possible.
#4 Arkansas vs. #2 Duke
Saturday 8:49 PM
Arkansas is rolling into this game are having beat the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga and if they can beat Gonzaga, they can beat anyone. Arkansas is No. 53 in offensive efficiency but the No. 11 in defensive efficiency. Whenever a team has a good defense, they give themselves to hang around in games and if you hang around you can win. Except in this game Arkansas took the lead and outscored Gonzaga in both halves.
Duke is flipped from Arkansas in that they are No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 46 in defensive efficiency. When I have watched Duke these two games, however, I have seen them be able to flip a switch defensively and play pretty hard on that side of the ball. If Coach K can get Duke to play sound defense for an entire game, they can run away with this game as Arkansas shoots just 30.4% (No. 316) from three-point range.
Duke is playing well at the right time of the year, I think they cover the four points.
Pick: Duke -4 (-110)
#10 Miami vs. #1 Kansas
Sunday 2:20 pm
Miami is in the first Elite 8 in school history against a lot of odds. If they did not just defeat my Iowa State Cyclones, I'd be more into their story as a program for how they have gotten there this year.
Miami is undersized, they are not a great rebounding team, and their outside shooting is about average. They are No. 118 in defensive efficiency. David McCormack should have a great game. I have watched a vast majority of Kansas games this season and I do not think Miami has much of a chance. Kansas is playing some of their best basketball of the season. Miami is a team that wants to turn you over and score in transition with easy buckets while Kansas has not turned the ball over more than 10 games the last two games.
Kansas has not been covering the spreads, but eventually, that will regress the other way. With the Final Four berth in their sights, this is a chance for Kansas to make a statement in that they are the favorite to win it all. As much as this pains me as an Iowa State fan, Kansas rolls here.
Pick: Kansas -6.0 (-110)
#15 Saint Peter's vs. #8 North Carolina
Sunday 5:05 pm
This is the biggest surprise matchup in the tournament. This is the first time a 15 seed has made it into an Elite 8 while North Carolina has been playing some good basketball at the right time of year.
Saint Peter's is No. 24 in defensive efficiency and No. 216 in offensive efficiency. Outside of the Kentucky game, Saint Peter's has held their opponents to less than one point per possession, which is pretty impressive as Purdue was No. 1 in offensive efficiency. As stated earlier, when you play good defense, you give yourself a chance to win.
North Carolina is No. 19 in offensive efficiency and No. 42 in defensive efficiency. Their defense has stepped up in this tournament, as they held Baylor to 0.99 points per possession and UCLA to 1.03 points per possession.
The story of this game to me will be three-point shooting. Saint Peter's holds their opponents to 29.3% three-point shooting while North Carolina shoots 36.3%. Also, North Carolina is a good free-throw shooting team at 76.9% (No. 23). This is a game in which I could see North Carolina getting out to a lead (they like to play at a higher tempo) and their sound free-throw shooting would extend the lead.
It's hard to go against Saint Peter's awesome run, but I am taking North Carolina here to cover the spread.
Pick: UNC -8.5 (-110)
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy the Elite 8! I will write an update for the Final Four, so be sure to check back next week. Good luck RotoBallers!
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